|
In Texas, trend lines show O with a 55-45% win at least, which will mine delegate heavy areas and give him roughly 70 of 126 in the primary, for a net gain of 14 delegates. Add in the caucus that night, and we're looking at him taking at least 40 of those 67, given his support and the famous O-campaign's caucus organizational skills, for an additional net gain of 13. That puts him at +27 for the night in Texas, which might be a conservative estimate if typical O turnout occurs. If that turnout happens, it could even be a Wisconsin-like rout.
Ohio is a tougher call. Trend lines favor O, and O obviously is closing on H. Turnout is crucial here, and typical O turnout will mean a victory for him. I think we're looking at a 4-5% O win, possibly more if that usual last-week-before-the-primary O surge happens, but suppressed turnout could conceivably give H a narrow win. My guess is that O takes it, but only by 2-5 delegates. Let's make it a net gain of 3, for the sake of argument. Again, though, if there's the typical late surge and typical O turnout, then he could net 7-10 in Ohio.
Vermont's fifteen delegates are harder to pin down. Two polls show O up big, but the gap may have narrowed. He's got the organizational advantage there, though. Looks like an 8-7 delegate win at worst for him. Let's call it a net gain of 1.
Rhode Island's 21 delegates should break toward H. At the moment, she has a nice lead there, and this state probably will be her last win of the campaign. I think the most she'll net there is 3.
It looks like a net Obama gain on the night of 28 at least, but 40 isn't impossible.
|