Indiana Poll: Hillary 46% Obama: 41%

[book_worm]

Could be that the Wright non-issue is calming down. This isnt' the size lead I expected Hillary to have given that other recent polls have had Hill up by 8 or 9 in Indiana, so I was bracing for the worse.

She leads with white voters by 19 and he leads among African-Americans by 90-4 percent.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

***Now that Insider Advantage poll of NC showing Hill with a 44-42 lead gives Obama only a 64-20 lead among African Americans. I think that ultimately it will be closer to what the Indiana numbers are among black voters. NC is an Obama state. Rasmussen also has him up by 14-points there. The Insider-Advantage poll also under polled black voters to fit what Hannity's talking points were.

[Leftist Agitator]

1. "...a 64-20 lead among African Americans."

That makes me think that this poll is flawed. That, and Rasmussen conducted it.

[Connie_Corleone]

2. 64-20 lead is in the Insider Advantage poll.

[Leftist Agitator]

5. Indeed it is.

I don't do so well with reading comprehension before my coffee.

[book_worm]

4. No, Insider Advantage as I stated in my post is the one which has

Obama up 64-20, It's Rasmussen which has the African-American vote at 90-4 in Indiana.

[Leftist Agitator]

7. My mistake!

As I said above, I don't do so well with reading comprehension before my coffee.

I don't believe that either of those margins among African American voters are accurate. Rassmussen's is too high, and Insider Advantage's is too low.

[book_worm]

10. on the other hand I believe he got 90% of the AA vote in PA

according to exit polls.

[Barack_America]

22. 93%. nt

[Barack_America]

21. I can tell you right now that's BS.

It's not going to hold.

Even canvassing in West Philly (where everyone I talked to was African American), I was getting about an 75-80% Obama-supporter rate. The area ended up going over 90% for Obama on election day. This trend of higher African American support on election day has held for state after state, and I suspect it will hold for IN as well.

[cali]

3. If he wins NC by 7+ and only lose IN by 4 or 5

he'll be in great shape. I'd be pleased with those results. And I don't but the 64-20 split of AA voters. It's completely contrary to the results in state after state.

[jefferson_dem]

6. And that IA poll of NC totally underestimates the AA turnout.

They will comprise upwards of 40% of the vote next Tuesday.

[Connie_Corleone]

8. Insider Advantage only polled AA at around 25%

I heard it will be closer to 40% in NC on primary day.

[book_worm]

9. I honestly think that all the Wright attention has helped Hill in recent polls

but I also feel that Obama turned a corner and it will take a few days for the polls to catch up with it, but I think NC is safe. African-American's will make up 40% of the vote in NC (not 25% as Insider poll says) and he will do much better among them than 64%!! and he will do okay with white voters too. I still predict a double digit win in NC. No predictions in Indiana as yet.

[KittyWampus]

19. No, he will NOT be in good shape & I'm sick of those Obama supporters who make excuses for a

campaign that has failed to deal with Hillary decisively.

Obama needs to win NC AND Indiana.

And this has nothing to do with getting the nomination. It has to do with him losing his way to the nomination and looking like a weak, milquetoast headed into the GE.

He is a milquetoast and his campaign is doing jackshit about the Swiftboat crap. He looks like he is either too incompetent or doesn't have the strenght to fight back.

He and his campaign are doing nothing to counter Hillary.

I am not talking about smacking her down.

I am talking about presenting the truth and getting her OUT OF THE WAY.

[AllentownJake]

24. I disagree

There are states that just favor one candidate over another PA was one of those states. He could have spent 100 million and 4 months in PA and moved the polls 2%.

[KittyWampus]

32. And I was happy he got 9% in PA after personally expecting 12%. Indiana is different.

He COULD have won. He COULD have fought an effective counter campaign to Hillary's crap.

[AllentownJake]

34. Operation Chaos

I lived in Indiana for 3 years. I knew he was never going to win there with their primary system after Ohio.

[high density]

29. Hillary needed to win states back in February

She didn't. She lost. Goodbye Clinton Campaign.

[KittyWampus]

33. Are you really that dense? This is about NOVEMBER. So what-Obama gets the nomination

and he's already been branded by Hillary as a milquetoast elitist.

He needs to be countering her and he is not.

She is still running, even if she can't win, and she is doing damage to his chances in November.

[high density]

35. Hillary has been branded as this left wing lunatic for years

And has a thousand times the baggage of Obama. Yes, she can't win, but I don't know what you want Obama to do about it. He's not going to attack her, because it doesn't do much for him.

And the most important thing is that the polls of today can't predict the November 4 poll that matters. Six months is an eternity in political terms.

[Aloha Spirit]

31. I kinda agree--it would be great to see some real momentum coming out of the primaries, since

there will be no contests between the primaries and November 4th.
Think about it.
No elections for MONTHS.
We're gonna be reading tea leaves between June and November.
It would be swell to have Obama come out of the primaries on a positive trend.

[Iceburg]

20. What??? He had a 23 point lead in NC less than 3 weeks ago/nt

[democrattotheend]

11. The sample looks off

I was relieved when I first saw this too, but I noticed some problems:

They sampled women as 51% and men as 49%. In every exit poll this season, women have been at least 55% of Democratic primary voters, usually around 58-59. Plus, Obama's support looks softer, and he is already maxed out among African Americans.

So reading between the lines of this poll, I think we have to brace ourselves for a bigger loss. I am sorry to be a pessimist, and please do not call me a concern troll. I am just being realistic. I drew the same conclusion from a PA poll that showed him down 5 and I was dead on.

[BootinUp]

12. Quite a few undecideds 13%. nt

[MadBadger]

13. That poll points to a ten point Obama loss in Indiana

[Zynx]

15. I agree. Hillary tends to close stronger than he does.

Also, his percentage is relatively constant and it is hers that bounces around.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. Don't Know But Rass Is Turning Into A Crappy (Mediocre) Pollster

And he rarely does "primary evening " polling which is the best indicator of how good or bad a pollster is...Ditto for Mason-Dixon...

[NJSecularist]

14. Obama leads 90-4 among African Americans?

That is absurd.

Yet we will hear the bitching about racism when Hillary wins West Virginia and Kentucky.

[MadBadger]

18. Those people vote for white candidates all the time

[polmaven]

27. "Those people"?

Who, exactly, are "Those" people?

Are you referring to African Americans?

[democrattotheend]

23. When we have had 43 black presidents, maybe you'll be right

Black people in North Carolina have never demonstrated a reluctance to vote for white candidates before. I'm sure John Edwards never would have become a senator without them. I was down there last weekend and canvassed in both black and white neighborhoods, and let me tell you, the black community down there is excited and they are voting for him because they are proud of him, not because they have an aversion to voting for white people. Go to a black neighborhood in Raleigh or in Philadelphia where I have been and you would be inspired by how much excitement Obama's candidacy has brought even in neighborhoods whose condition otherwise seems depressing. Drive through Northeast DC or Prince George's County and take a look at all of the Obama lawn signs that remain on lawns 2 months after the primary. Talk to the elderly black woman who put her hand on her heart when I asked if she would vote for Obama and said "he's my baby" and put the doorhanger I had given her in her window as if it were a poster. Are you telling me these people are racists?

[Shine]

16. What's the percentage of "undecided" voters?

because they could make the swing difference for Obama. :thumbsup:

[polmaven]

28. The pattern has been, however,

that voters who make up their minds later in the process have been voting for Senator Clinton.

[cliffordu]

17. How does the delegate count split up with those numbers??

Does it do Billary any real good??

I didn't think so.

[AllentownJake]

25. Well

With a 12 point win in NC for Hillary 8 delegates for her
and 8 point victory for Obama 9 delegates for him

So Tuesday will be a wash.

[cliffordu]

26. I know, Just trying to keep the poll junkies in line......