***May 1st Super Delegate Update Thread**(plus why so many for Obama/Clinton today)

[grantcart]

For more information pls see DemconWatch http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/add-on-superdelegate-selection-schedule.html

1) As previously advised this week will be a big week for add on delegates here is the schedule - please note that 4 are from New York today and 3 from Illinois on 5/5. You would expect 4 for Clinton to be announced today and 3 have already been announced for Obama but will become actual SDs on 5/5. The other 4 Add ons are all from states that went big for Obama:

Maryland 2 5/1/2008 Selected at the State Democratic Central Committee meeting.
New York 4 5/1/2008 Selected during the State Democratic Executive Committee
Louisiana 1 5/3/2008 Selected by the Democratic State Central Committee).
South Carolina 1 5/3/2008 Elected during the State Convention
Illinois 3 5/5/2008 Selected during the State Convention


Illinois has already announced the 3 that will be selected and announced them - presumably to minimize the expected announcement of 4 SDs from NY.


Here are all of the SD announced for today - including the 3 for Illinois that will not be counted in stats until 5/5:

2)DNC JOE ANDREW (IN) SWITCHES ENDORSEMENT FROM CLINTON TO OBAMA
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080501/ap_on_el_pr/superdelegates

WASHINGTON - A leader of the Democratic Party under Bill Clinton has switched his allegiance to Barack Obama and is encouraging fellow Democrats to "heal the rift in our party" and unite behind the Illinois senator.

Joe Andrew, who was Democratic National Committee chairman from 1999-2001, planned a news conference Thursday in his hometown of Indianapolis to urge other Hoosiers to support Obama in Tuesday's primary, perhaps the most important contest left in the White House race. He also has written a lengthy letter explaining his decision that he plans to send to other superdelegates.

"I am convinced that the primary process has devolved to the point that it's now bad for the Democratic Party," Andrew said in a telephone interview with The Associated Press.

Bill Clinton appointed Andrew chairman of the DNC near the end of his presidency, and Andrew endorsed Hillary Rodham Clinton last year on the day she declared her candidacy for the White House.

3)ILLINOIS' 3 SUPER DELEGATES ALL FOR OBAMA

Obama picks up 3 more Illinois superdelegates: Daley, Currie and Stroger.
WASHINGTON--When the Democratic Party of Illinois meet next week to finish filling out the delegate slate, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) will pick up three more superdelegates, according to Steve Brown, a spokesman for state party chair Michael Madigan, who is also the speaker of the Illinois House.

That's because the three appointments are all pledged to Obama: Mayor Daley --he shares strategist David Axelrod with Obama and brother Bill, the former Commerce Secetary is on the Obama team; Illinois House Majority Leader Barbara Flynn Currie (D-Chicago), a Hyde Parker who lives near the Obamas'; and Cook County Board President Todd Stroger.

4)DNC JOHN OLSEN (CT)WILL ENDORSE CLINTON

http://blogs.courant.com/capitol_watch/2008/04/hillary-to-pick-up-a-superdele.html

Hillary To Pick Up A Super-delegate
By Mark Pazniokas on April 30, 2008 9:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (16)
John Olsen, president of the Connecticut AFL-CIO and a super-delegate, is expected to announce Thursday his support for Hillary Rodham Clinton.

His announcement follows a commitment to Clinton by Bill George, the president of the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO, who also is a super-delegate.

Barack Obama won the Connecticut primary with 51 percent of the vote, but his supporters will have little cause to complain about Olsen. Obama already has a lopsided majority of the state's super-delegates



Will add any other SD announcements down thread

[Coexist]

1. thank you for keeping track of all of this for us.

[rox63]

2. If I'm reading that correctly

It looks like the SD gap is down to 17. :woohoo:

[grantcart]

3. correct but expect a block buster announcement any minute with

4 super delegates for Hillary from NY

[4themind]

7. But obama may pick up two in maryland today also

either way it's winnowing down the undecides, and at a far greater ratio than obama is projected to need to clinch the nomination.

[grantcart]

9. and 3 more from MD and LA on Saturday

The question will be whether Clinton will sweep all 4 in NY. I am wondering if they may compromise for various reasons.

[grantcart]

19. now 16 with Jason endorsement

[grantcart]

4. also the gap does not include the 3 from IL

[Texas Hill Country]

15. until the 4 from NY announce...

[Boz]

5. The two AFL CIO presidents are her corporate buyout using the gas tax against the public.

Setting aside the gas tax will only drive the price of consumer gas up, trucking gas will stay the same, because it will not increase use.

So the gas tax is corporate profit welfare for trucking management, not the drivers, and the gas companies.

And the American people get told it is for their benefit, because she baits and switches

[4themind]

8. It doesn't even benfit them,

in the sense of tangible savings to their companies, just a way (probably like hillary) to say taht they have a short term solution, to placate driver anger

[Boz]

10. It wont save indys anything, but it is MILLIONS to organized trucking

Corporations first is Hillary's rallying cry, but dont tell the people.

[grantcart]

11. as supply and demand dictates price it will not reduce the price one penny

but the additional profits will go to the gas companies.

[Boz]

16. Exactally, and thats why it will only make consumer gas MORE expensive

But it will not change the demand for trucking gas, that is a given fixed demand, so it does give money directly to Organized trucking.

So on the consumer side profit to the Gas companies, on the trucking side profit to the corporate trucking.

Win for the Corporations, screw John Q

Thast why two AFL CIO president/Superdelegates went against their memberships endorsment of Obama and chose Hillary

[grantcart]

51. Obama got a union super delegate today as well

[clevbot]

6. let hope SD's listen to Andrew and end this madness

[dbmk]

12. SD needs

Given the current numbers from DemConWatch, the need for superdelegates look like this, given an estimate for GU/IN/NC that I think is reasonably favoured for Senator Clinton:



Notes:

Hillary needs 40% of the SDs even if she takes 100% of the pledged delegates after IN/NC.

Obama can still do it in that situation with 65-70% of the SDs.

Its probably more likely to be a 50-50 from there, making the numbers around 75% for Hillary and 27% for Obama.
Which in absolute numbers are about 218 for Hillary and 78 for Obama.

[grantcart]

14. thanks do you keep updating this everyday?

[dbmk]

26. No - once in a while.

Figured there had been a few the last couple days, so it was time for an update.

Do you know where to find a reliable prediction on the add-ons? Or is that more or less impossible?

[grantcart]

30. deomconwatch has a page on add ons

you can guess by the state

also some states have already announced that they are picking a pro Obama SD but they just don't know who

Maine for example.

If you take the caucus/primary results its pretty obvious who the add on will be for.


Thanks for the graph just understood it today for the first time lol

[Window]

13. K/R.

:kick:

[grantcart]

36. tks

[TragedyandHope]

17. K&R Thanks for the update!

:kick:

[grantcart]

18. DNC Jason Rae (WI) for Obama

Openly gay superdelegate Jason Rae: Obama a strong candidate against McCain

by Nick Langewis



The nation's youngest Democratic superdelegate, despite having been heavily courted by the Clinton campaign, is backing Senator Barack Obama for President.

"It was a matter of how many young people were turning out for him," said 21-year-old Wisconsin native Jason Rae to The Guardian. "I got elected to be a voice for next generation and I see Obama really engaging with young people. In exit polls, 73% of 18-to-24-year-old Wisconsin voters supported him."

Rae believes Sen. Obama has a "strong chance" to beat Republican opponent Sen. John McCain. "His vision and his new perspective on change makes him more viable. What we have seen from Obama is that he is able to compete in places where Democrats have not always been able to."

[grantcart]

21. appears to have already been counted in Feb

[TheDoorbellRang]

22. I think he's been in Obama's column for a while now.

I remember reading his argument as a rep of young voters before. I just looked over at DCW and he was already in Obama's column.

[grantcart]

23. correct seems to be a DNC Texas SD announcing - not yet confirmed

Texas DNC member John Patrick

[TheDoorbellRang]

27. DCW has now added Patrick to Obama's list

So it's official.:woohoo:

16 SD's apart: 260-244, with 290 remaining.

[grantcart]

31. and Obama's magic number is going to be about 280 before IN/NC

[writes3000]

20. K&R!

[grantcart]

24. DNC PATRICK (TX) ENDORSES OBAMA (AFL-CIO)

A Texas super for Obama


An AFL-CIO official, John Patrick, endorses the senator.


TEXAS SUPERDELEGATE ENDORSES BARACK OBAMA

31 year member of the United Steelworkers, DNC Member John Patrick Backs Obama

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0508/A_Texas_super_for_Obama.html

CHICAGO, IL -- Today, a Texas superdelegate backed Barack Obama, citing his record of standing up for working families and opposing trade deals that fail to protect American workers. The endorsement by Texas DNC Member John Patrick, who is also a 31 year member of the United Steelworkers (USW) as well as a Vice President of the Texas AFL/CIO, brings the total number of superdelegates to endorse Barack Obama to 249. Senator Obama is 283 delegates away from securing the Democratic nomination.



John Patrick said, "Senator Barack Obama has spent a lifetime standing up for American workers, and he will be a crucial voice for us in the White House. Senator Obama chose a career as an organizer on the streets of Chicago, fighting for working families who lost their jobs, specifically those families in neighborhoods devastated by steel plant closings. He has consistently opposed unfair trade deals that fail to offer protection to American workers - like NAFTA. Senator Obama has a real plan to put money back in the pockets of working families by restoring the manufacturing base in America."

[grantcart]

25. Obama's magic number is now 290 Clinton's SD lead 16

[sonias]

28. Thanks for the update grantcart

Keep moving forward with Obama! The Joe Andrew switch is really big.

:bounce:

Sonia

[grantcart]

29. thanks

[Aloha Spirit]

32. kicked

[grantcart]

33. The 4 add on delegates that I predicted this morning are now announced

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2008/05/more-ny-delegates-for-clinton.html

The state Democratic Party today elected at-large delegates for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, the allocation of which was based on a rather complicated formula dervied from the Feb. 5 primary results.

In addition, four new unpledged at-large superdelegates were elected: AG Andrew Cuomo, state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, former Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields and Assemblywoman Carmen Arroyo.

Both DiNapoli and Cuomo have endorsed Clinton. Not sure about Fields and Arroyo - will updated

[grantcart]

34. Please note that only two of the NY SDs have endorsed Clinton so far

[Scurrilous]

35. K & R

:thumbsup:

[grantcart]

50. thanks

[DerekJ]

37. Ok summary please.

1- How many SD add-ons for each?
2- I know one switched from C to O so that's a -2 for C.
3- How many regular SDs were announced for each candidate today?
4- What is the count after all is said and done?!

[grantcart]

39. Net gain so far today Obama +5 Clinton +4

Don't get confused because some of the sites like Demconwatch will not officially add Obama's IL add ons until 5/5
This is the official DemconWatch for today

5-1-08 - Moved DNC Joe Andrew (IN) from Clinton to Obama.
- Added DNC John Patrick (TX) for Obama
- Added NY add-ons Andrew Cuomo (NY)#, Tom DiNapoli (NY)#, Virginia Fields (NY)# and Carmen Arroyo (NY)# for Clinton
- Added DNC John Olsen (CT) for Clinton


There are still 4 add on delegates to be chosen today and Sat from these three Obama states

2 from MD
1 from SC
1 from LA

So by Monday Obama should be up about 9-4 for the 3 days plus any new announcements

[DerekJ]

40. Thanks grantcart :) n/t

[grantcart]

38. Clinton now confirming 4 add on delegates

[Coexist]

whats the net today? including the -1 for Clinton

[grantcart]

42. see # 39 above

[Coexist]

43. thank you!

[grantcart]

45. tks

[bigbrother05]

41. kick

[grantcart]

46. tks

[Kukesa]

44. Big grantcart Kick! n/t

[grantcart]

49. tks kukesa

[kerry-is-my-prez]

47. They said a lot of times the campaigns will hold the announcements back.

[grantcart]

48. what is this in reference to?

[grantcart]

52. night kick