Obama is The Nominee: This is Now a Battle for The Clinton Voters

[writes3000]

Looking at all of the signs, the race for the nomination is over. Barack Obama will be the Democratic Nominee for President. Not only has he won the most states, the most votes, the most pledged delegates - not only has he brought in new voters, appealed to independents and shattered fund-raising records - but the Democratic Party knows it cannot afford to overturn the results of this race without permanent damage to their African American constituency and the newfound youth constituency. Fair is fair and the Democratic Party's fundamental theme is fairness and equality for all. They can not and will not betray that philosophy.

So what's really going on?

I believe the party leaders (Dean, Pelosi, Gore, Kerry, Edwards, Carter, Kennedy, etc.) have all agreed that Obama will be the nominee. And I believe some of these people have communicated this to Obama. Clearly, the Republican party knows this. That's why they're spending all of their money and resources against Obama. Not one dime is being spent against Hillary.

So does Hillary know that this race is essentially over? Perhaps. But I don't think she's been formally told this. Why? Because there is a bigger game afoot.

This is now a battle to win over the Clinton voters. And it's fascinating to watch.

On the Democratic side: The party is doing everything it can to appear like they are giving Hillary the fairest of fair shots. Sure, there are the rare calls for her to drop out but those are nothing compared to the behind the scenes sentiment, I'd bet. The Dem party leaders know full well that the Clintons will claim injustice and sexism if Hillary is perceived to be pushed out. So they're slowly doling out SD endorsements one and two at a time. Trying to send a gentle message while they play the Clintons' game. Praying that Hillary and Bill Clinton will at some point honor the results and the wishes of the rest of the party.

Obama? He's got the toughest of missions. He's got to stay in this race but, but, but HE CAN'T ATTACK HER. He's got to try to seem nice and appealing to the Clinton supporters because he needs a bigger chunk of them to come to him rather than McCain. So he's got to stand defenseless while this goes on. He doesn't outwardly attack her on the Bosnia gaffe. Or on any of her gaffes. Clinton calls him an elitist. Obama brushes it off but he doesn't attack her in the same way. Yep, it seems like he has no fight. And the Clintons even use that against him.

But folks, make no mistake, this is why he's not fighting back. He's been told he's the nominee.

Even more fascinating is what's going on with the Republicans.

Their pundits are masterfully claiming that Hillary is the stronger candidate for multiple reasons.

1) Most obviously, they want to primary to go to the convention. They know there will be almost no time for the party to heal after August.

2) They want to increase doubt and fear within the Dem party and the Dem party leadership. "Oh no, what if Barack Obama is MORE unpopular and unelectable than Hillary Clinton!" It's ridiculous but people buy it - despite the fact that people like and trust Obama more.

3) This is the key rationale. The Republicans are pumping up Hillary so they can siphon off votes when Barack's nomination is official. Believe it or not, the Republican party is positioning themselves to become to the party devoted to disenfranchised women. They already know that their scare tactics and race baiting will work on the many uneducated Americans. But what they need is to convince women that the Democratic party has somehow betrayed them.

Will they succeed? I hope not.

But either way, IMO, the race is over. Barack Obama is the nominee.

[grantcart]

1. This is exactly what is going on and why I find the "he isn't tough enough

threads so infuriating" He is trying to close this think out with the least amount of blood spilled as necessary.


Hillary is trying to make it as difficult as she can too.


The Clintons could have gone out on top too.

[writes3000]

38. You are absolutely right. I watch him and I can tell he's laid down his weapons.

He's working extra hard not to say anything negative about her.

And the glee about this on the other side is really twisted.

[xchrom]

2. i don't care about hillary -- but i care about NObama.

[NashVegas]

3. When Did Obama Get 2025 Delegates?

I must've slept through it.

[Secret_Society]

9. Jinx hahaha

[NashVegas]

41. You Owe Me a Beer!

[Secret_Society]

47. This is a clear miscarriage of justice lol

I jinxed you thus you owe ME a beer...compromise after HRC wins we can both pop the cork on some champagne.

[grantcart]

40. May 21st 10:12

[Secret_Society]

4. When did Obama get 2,025 delegates?

[kwenu]

19. Secretly around the time Robert Reich expressed his disgust with Hillary's tactics.

[thunder rising]

5. Yep, indeed that's my take as well. She's hoping for enough damage to get to run in 2012.

[Name removed]

10. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Secret_Society]

11. Well I know I dont have that many posts but Crisco has 20,000 posts...Lot of devotion for a freeper!

[Hoof Hearted]

34. Furthermore, thunder rising should know that calling people freepers is against DU's TOS.

[Coexist]

6. yup.

[ClayZ]

7. K and R

[KAZ]

8. "Unity talk" that's the only way. Better not fucking happen, though.

[Quixote1818]

12. No doubt about it. nt

[Solomon]

13. Excellent analysis. I agree with you. I've also felt that Obama

has been told that he is the nominee. Even when I saw that Dean interview, there was something in the way he spoke that indicated to me that all this bullshit going on is to placate the Clintons so they won't be able to holler that they didn't get a fair chance.

[writes3000]

39. Yep, yep, yep. The Joe Andrews thing today is just another sign.

The party is being prepped.

[RainDog]

53. 3 powerful delegates in 3 days

Friday stink bomb from...? My guess is Rove, to sow dissension, just as your post predicted. thanks for posting this yesterday. it helped put today in perspective for me. From now on, I'm just going to assume that all attacks are coming from Republicans. (and if not, they might as well be.)

[kwenu]

14. Hillary and Bill know it's over and I believe they have been told.

The only people playing with the possibility of Hillary being the nominee is the media who wants to sell airtime and Hillary's supporters who in fact are donating to help her wrap up her bills.

[KittyWampus]

16. so then why ARE the Clintons doing this?

[kwenu]

21. To destroy the likely nominee in the hopes they can get a shot in 2012.

They won't get that chance though. They are finished.

[jillan]

15. I think you should wait until Tues before you say this.

If Hillary wins NC and Indiana, then the race will be over......

but it won't be for Hillary.

[Bensthename]

17. Ive been saying the same thing. She has an impossible chance and he can not attack her.

He is in a dilemma.. Oh well, this time in two months he will be able to rip into McCain like he should be doing now, if it weren't for those metaling kids..

[MindMatter]

48. Just look at the McCain gas holiday thing

He wants to tear McCain a new asshole on that one, but Clinton is standing in the line of fire. He can't criticize McCain severely without sounding nasty to Hillary, and he is obviously holding his fire.

We are many months away from November, but Clinton shouldn't be putting Obama in this position on such an important issue as gas prices. Obama is really screwed if people start to see him as "the guy in favor of gas taxes". That is exactly how I have heard the media describe the line-up multiple times in the past 48 hours.

She needs to get off the stage and let the real show begin.

[geek tragedy]

18. And after he gets his ass kicked in IN and gets massacred

in West Virginia and Kentucky, superdelegates are supposed to endorse him en masse?

[kwenu]

22. If he does get his ass kicked it will change NOTHING!!!!!

That's the part Hillary fans are slow to get but it's undeniable.

[NashVegas]

37. LOL .. I've Heard That Before

Oh yeah, that's what us HC people were saying in February.

Hee hee. .... you have become what you despise.

[kwenu]

50. It's not February, it's May. And there are REAL solid reasons to despise the Hillary campaign even

if I weren't an Obama supporter. So I have to disagree with you on that point.

[MercutioATC]

23. Define "ass kicked". I want to see if we're on the same page.

...and, yes, Clinton will do well in West Pennsyltucky. That's expected.

[kwenu]

26. Greater than 10%. If she wins greater than 65% in those states, we'll re-evaluate.

Because greater than 65% is the only chance she has.

[MercutioATC]

29. I'm predicting Indiana to be Clinton +5

I just wanted to know if that qualified as an "ass kicking".

[kwenu]

49. I wouldn't call 5 pts an "ass kicking" and it would be almost negligible in the delegate count.

[geek tragedy]

32. Bigger than margin of victory in PA. n/t

[MercutioATC]

36. Not that it will make any statistical difference, but I disagree.

I'm sticking with Clinton +5.

I'll be surprised if it's +9.2.

[kid a]

46. yep...won't matter

[tabasco]

20. All that remains is a whole lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth.

What a ghastly spectacle the Hillary campaign has become.

[CatsDogsBabies]

24. Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, Acceptance

The most recent Wright hype was the height of bargaining stage, trying to trade off this negative of Obama's with HRC's negatives. All I heard about HRC's response to Andrew's endorsement of Obama was that she was disappointed (moving into depression). I think people know it's over too. Too much time was spent in the anger phase, but it seems that phase is over.

[Jim Sagle]

33. The Dems better HOPE for Bargaining, Depression, Acceptance.

[bhikkhu]

25. Good analysis - thanks!

[TragedyandHope]

27. Kick for our next President of the United States!

:kick:

[ClayZ]

28. kick

[Honeycombe8]

30. I support Obama, but really...it's not over til the fat lady sings. It was only 2 days ago...

that a lot of people thought it was over for Obama. Now, some think it's over for Clinton. If Clinton wins IN, people will once again think it's over for Obama. Then if Obama wins NC big, they'll think it's over for Clinton.

In reality....if Obama wins both IN and NC, it IS over for Clinton. Maybe even if she wins IN, but he wins NC big, it might still be over for Clinton.

But those are a lotta "ifs." And God help us, Rev. Wright may decide to hold ANOTHER press conference.

[Kokonoe]

31. Hats off to the Hillary supporters for not giving up.

although it seems it was over before she could throw a good punch.

Obama was just too charismatic to be ignored by the M$M.
M$M ignored Edwards, for the reasons of elimination.
This will be the last time a campaign like Obama's will have that coverage again.
We now have our opportunity to bring sense and decency in the white house.

[Life Long Dem]

35. Yeah, he can just sit back and cruise home. 45 states

45 states down, 7 to go. The starting line didn't start next Tuesday.

:bounce: But you would think from all the jumping up and down on here the race just started. I've been saying Obama can drop down to where Clinton gets 65% in the remaining states and still win it.

[mudesi]

42. I don't want them. They can vote for McCain

Forget those people. They're conservatives anyway.

:puke:

[writes3000]

45. We need some of them. Not all but some.

And hopefully, if they won't vote for Obama, they will stay home.

The Dem party will have some real work to do cleaning up after the most destructive elements of this campaign.

[BzaDem]

43. He will always be nominee. Or former nominee.

Because as rediculous as you think it is, that he is "MORE unpopular and unelectable than Hillary Clinton," it is true. I'm sure you'll keep your head in the sand until November, but that doesn't change the truth.

[kid a]

44. I agree. Fret not... time for "tension tamer" tea.

:toast:

[candice]

51. I could not morally vote for the brand. Will write in the better candidate...

...hope he doesn't have the change to bring down the Dem Party, but if he does, that is what happens when you don't vet your candidates.

[RainDog]

52. is the republican kool-aid tasty?

you sure do seem to be full of it.

[Freida5]

54. He is not the nominee yet.

[RainDog]

56. he is the nominee, based upon rational calculations

Currently Obama is credited with 1737 delegates (pledged and super) and Clinton is credited with 1598 delegates. Of the 795 Super Delegates only 272 haven't indicated for whom they intend to vote.

As such, assuming the remaining pledged delegates break 50/50 -- which given our system of proportional allocation is nearly certain to be at least roughly accurate -- then Clinton would need to win 206 of the remaining 272 Super Delegates to win. In other words, she would need to convince 75.7% of the remaining undecided Super Delegates. This would require her to gain more than 3 of the undecided for every one that Obama picks up. This is essentially impossible and this is why the race is really over. The only thing Hillary Clinton can do at this point is continue to damage Obama by (1) attacking his qualifications to serve ("he's not ready" "he's not fit to be Comander and Chief"), (2) providing opposition research to the Republicans (see today's article in HuffPost), (3) making Obama waste campaign cash fighting Clinton instead of McCain, and (4) spliting the Dem and dragging the race out where her followers won't be willing to vote for Obama.

[quantass]

55. .

[RainDog]

57. ..