Delegate math: Why Clinton winning and even winning big in IN will result in an Obama win

[usregimechange]

If North Carolina Obama by 10%
Obama 69 delegates to Clinton's 46
=_________________________
+23 Obama delegate gain.

If Indiana Clinton by 10%
Clinton 43 delegates to Obama 29
=_________________________
+14 Clinton delegate gain.

Total net gain for Obama
=_________________________
+9 delegates

See for yourself:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/

And no, Obama will not come close to losing NC, see here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5303475

[Condem]

1. us,

as always, a stellar post.

[ruggerson]

2. Didn't you also tell us that Pennsylvania would turn around once Philly precincts came in?

[Condem]

4. ruggerson

still arguing about PA? The state was tailor made for Clinton , yet, he cut the lead in two. Indiana is another white trash piece of shit. You'll win.

[ruggerson]

7. No I was commenting on the OP's prognosticating abilities

nice to hear what you think of PA and IN.

[Condem]

10. I was raised in PA, ruggerson.

Tell me, is Indiana a big state?

[ruggerson]

14. compared to what?

[Condem]

18. Say, Ohio, California, New York, PA.

Get it?

[ruggerson]

19. compared to those

uh, no. Is this a new game? Is Idaho a big state?

[Condem]

22. Let's bring in the caucuses, ruggerson.

You're humble opinion, please?

[ruggerson]

25. What about them, Condem?

I feel like I'm in a coutroom drama with someone who just graduated from the Upper Asuza School of Law and Technical Training.

[Condem]

28. So many of you Clinton supporters disregard them.

Have you ever been to one?

[ruggerson]

29. I don't disregard them

I just think they're not as democratic (small d) as primaries. I would like to see the process changed for 2012.

[Condem]

30. Again, ever been to one?

[ruggerson]

32. I've never lived

in a caucus state, why?

[Condem]

34. The Clinton's whole argument is the caucus states....

and why they don't do well in them. Why is that?

[usregimechange]

17. I never said he would win, I said it wasn't over and that the MSM was too early to call it, and...

see here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4420528&mesg_id=4420528

Thanks

[ruggerson]

20. gotcha

I do remember you called Missouri correctly

[usregimechange]

23. Thanks for being fair

It is appreciated. :hi:

[ruggerson]

26. Sure

:hi:

[usregimechange]

5. Ah, no I didn't, I said it was too early to call

[Name removed]

12. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[ruggerson]

15. coming from you, that's hilarious

[Cha]

3. Thank you, USRChange..

The more of these reality posts the better!

[patrice]

6. I called Indiana tonight.

Only got to talk to three people out of my 25, left messages for most of the others, only 3 were not interested.

The longest conversation and the most interested listener was concerned with college education for his children. We talked about Obama's tax credit plan for higher education. They guy didn't commit his vote, but he took the 800 number for talking to issue experts and upon parting company the callee said he and his wife would be going to the closest Obama visit they could find.

[usregimechange]

8. You rule!

[patrice]

27. Thanks! Had to quit after the 25 though, because we were having tornado sirens

for about 30 minutes of it.

[usregimechange]

33. I've been caling for the state party but will look to cal IN for Obama this weekend

[and-justice-for-all]

9. Regardless of what happens now...Obama is still leading..

and will continue to do so.

The Most States, the most delegates and has rasied more funds too..Obama 08!

[usregimechange]

36. all 50 states!

[patrice]

11. As in past elections, I have discovered that the calling assuages my anxiety, but . .

my favorite thing is door-knocking, because it helps relieve my worry AND I get to be active out of doors.

[berni_mccoy]

13. Excellent work on your analysis! THANKS! K&R!

[rocktivity]

16. Hillary NEEDS 68% of the vote in ALL the remaining contests to "close the deal"

And that doesn't factor in her superdelegate lead dropping into the the teens.


41-point or more margin of victory = blowout

36 - 40 points = a "real" win

30 - 35 points = good, but not good enough

11 – 29 points = a wash

5 - 10 points = useless

1 - 4 points = concession speech


:headbang:
rocknation

[usregimechange]

21. We should e-mail that to the Clinton campaign

[grantcart]

24. what are the crossover possibilities in these two states

what are the possibilitites of significant subterfuge by republican trouble makers? Is it same day registration?

[usregimechange]

31. 2% either way? No same day according to this:

Six states have made registration as simple as it can be. Minnesota, Maine, New Hampshire, Idaho, Wisconsin, and Wyoming allow voters to register at the polls when they arrive to cast their ballot. North Dakota abandoned registration entirely in 1951. Five of these states have the highest voter turnout in the country.

http://www.gothamgazette.com/elections/sep.01.shtml

[grantcart]

35. so do you have a projection in either of these states?

I would have thought that NC would be a blow away because it has both AA and high educated white on the coast?

Did you do a projection on Indiana and I missed it?