Matchup polls vs. McCain are NOT your friend...lemme explain

[Lerkfish]

not that some of you will probably listen or understand. But I am honestly making this nonpartisan point for a reason.

Here's the difference, in this case, between a poll NOW and what will happen in the general election.


This poll is being conducted while McCain is the certain nominee and Clinton and Obama are vying for the position. Republicans do not have choose or think anything beyond "R".
Democrats have strong loyalties to either Clinton or Obama, and therefore, they are going to answer for either one, BEFORE THE NOMINEE IS SELECTED.

What a poll of this type does, is dramatically ignore supporters for Clinton or Obama that will go for the other candidate ONCE THE DUST SETTLES.

This kind of matchup poll, in this currect dynamic, is essentially dividing the democrats and unifying the republicans. At best, it MIGHT show you how DEMOCRATS feel about their chosen candidate in a matchup against McCain, at this moment in time, IT IS NOT a valid indicator for general election at all. The only valid indicating polls will be AFTER the primary is over, and you THEN compare the winner against McCain.


sorry, but this is a pet peeve of mine when people manipulate, or are manipulated by polls set up to arrive at a wrong conclusion from data.

[kentuck]

1. I agree.

Basically, the polls would have to be skewered by the divided loyalties of the 2 Democrats versus the one chosen Republican.

[DerekJ]

2. 30% of Hillary supporters now say will vote for McCain. That's 30% of 50% (roughly half the DP) of

50% (DP roughly half the voting population). That's around 8% currently voting McCain from HRC supporters because of the heat of the primaries. (That’s a total of 16 point swing (take 8 form Obama and give it to McCain).

[yourout]

5. 30% of Hillary primary voters will vote for McCain no matter what.

[DerekJ]

6. I highly doubt that 30% of HRC supporters are that stupid. I won't count you among the smart ones

though.

[yourout]

7. While I admit the 30% is an exaggeration I truly belive 10% of Hillarys votes are bogus and are....

Pukes trying to make sure they get to run against Her.

[Milo_Bloom]

8. No, they won't.

Just like in every primary season they SAY they will as a way of trying to make their candidate look stronger.

[MrSlayer]

3. Yes. I keep saying "Wait until we get him one on one".

We're going to trash the Pukes on the issues. People are tired of this Republican bullshit.

[cali]

4. Absolutely spot on and it can't be said too frequently

thanks for saying it well.

[Muttocracy]

9. Those polls also have large uncertain % - larger than the margin of victory

Another reason they aren't very informative.

[Dogmudgeon]

10. Until Obama's numbers fell, they were Gospel Truth

It was part of the argument "Why Hillary Is Doomed". And the argument changes every time the polls do.

--p!

[Lerkfish]

11. not from me. I've ALWAYS cautioned people about polls, whether they favor my candidate or not

because, as I said, I think relying on them is being mislead.

[madrchsod]

12. i believe every poll that is posted here at du....

but then again i`m a complete idiot