I think the primaries have reached a Perpetual 50/50 Stalemate, with no Magic Bullet in sight

[Armstead]

I think the primaries have reached a point where neither candidate is really ahead or really behind in any meaningful way. There isn't any magic bullet on the horizon.

Almost half of the Democrats support Obama. Almost half support Clinton. There's a group of undecided who appear to bounce back and forth, affecting the day's status within a marginal range.

None of the supposed "game changing" primaries so far have really changed the game. The results have been temporary.

Obama's poll numbers and electoral results and image ebb and flow. So do Clinton's. It depends on which had a "good" period or a "bad" period. Right now Clinton is on the upswing, because Obama got hit by Rev. Wright and some other bummers. But if the primaries continue, Hillary will hit her own bumps in the road, and Obama will get back some momentum....Then it will be vice versa again.

In other words, the primary and nomination process will continue to be inconclusive. Hillary is winning and losing. Obama is winning and losing.

This could go on to the convention, unless something happens. A rare show of leadership from Democratic Superdelegates and Bigwigs,perhaps -- but they don't seem to be inclined to put their feet down on that.

Or it might be some truly monumental screw up by one candidate or the otehr. That seems unlikely. Obama is doing okay, Hillary is doing okay.

That's how I see it at this point. How about you?

[blm]

1. ONE FACT that doesn't change - Obama won this shortly after Super Tuesday and everyone knows

it, including the Clinton camp and the corporate media who have been playing Dem voters for over two months now.

[Armstead]

3. Well, yes and no

He did gain a significant -- and perhaps mathmatically insurmountable -- lead in the pledged delegate count.

But he didn't reach the magic number, as McCain did.

And the less objective measurement of how the Superdelagate will go is still up in the air.

I think, overall, we're in limbo.

[blm]

12. Here's where you're wrong old buddy - I posted in early March that McClatchy had done

a comprehensive survey of all the remaining supers, and they OVERWHELMINGLY came down in Obama's column.

Clintons and all of media are aware of that survey.

Why would the supers wait? They wanted to give Clintons the room to end it on their own and with some position and dignity.

Clintons are making it impossible for many of them who would have preferred to wait it out - you'll see and hear a LOT more supers revealing their support for Obama this next week.

[Armstead]

14. As an Obama supporter I hope you're right

But one has to wonder how many of those have had second thoughts with recent events and trends.

If those SD's really want to help the Democratic Party get its act together for November, they'd better fish or cut bait soon.

[blm]

17. YOu need only look at Joe Andrew's switch from Clinton to Obama - he's doing that FOR

Bayh who has known it's over for some time, just as every other insider has known. Andrew is going to be in there pitching like crazy to get Bayh on the ticket with Obama as the 'compromise' with the Clinton camp.

It's been all show for over two months.

[rocktivity]

16. According to this chart, the superdelegates are literally coming back down to earth.

Hillary's superdelegate lead has been her ace in the hole. But she'll have a tougher time convincing them that she's more electable if Obama continues to close the gap.



:headbang:
rocknation

[DJ13]

2. I have to agree, and the next primaries will likely split one each too

But that may be enough to break the logjam of SD's who have been waiting for another Obama win to begin their mass movement to begin ending this.

I hope so anyway, since continuing this stalemate longer will only make it harder to reunite behind our nominee.

[Armstead]

4. Yes a prolonged primary is not helpful, that's for sure

[WeDidIt]

5. Actually, the primaries are currently at 52-48

in Obama's favor, according to DemConWatch.

1733 Delegates for Obama = 51.6%.
1604 Delegates for Clinton = 47.8%.
19 Delegates for Edwards = 0.6%.

[rocktivity]

6. If Hillary wins ALL TEN of the remaining contests with 69% of the vote,

THEN we'll have a stalemate. We DON'T have one now: Hillary leads only the superdelegate count, and THAT'S shrunk from the nineties to the teens.

:headbang:
rocknation

[Armstead]

8. You'fre making the mistake of going by the rules

Rules? We don't need no stinking rules.

[BeyondGeography]

7. She hasn't been able to do what he did

which is roll up the score in a large number of states and go on a long winning streak. She topped 60% once; Obama has done that 15 times.

This looks closer than it is. She lost it all in February.

[The Magistrate]

9. A Pretty Sound Analysis, Sir

And at bottom, not much of a problem, because this even split represents the facts, which are that there is very little difference on substance between Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama, that either would be an excellent candidate for the Party, and that each would be an excellent President for the United States.

[dorktv]

10. Absolutely. The fact is we have two major history changing candidates

who basically have a few minor differences in policy (some of those are actually NOT so minor but...)

no wonder people cannot make up their mind for sure one way or the other.

[Aloha Spirit]

11. GUAMMMMM

[rocktivity]

18. Last I heard, Obama's up by six with half the precints in.

UPDATE: He's still up by six with two thirds of the precints in.

:headbang:
rocknation

[rocktivity]

24. 4:45PM EST: With one precint left to count. Obama's up by 4. eom

.

[Armstead]

20. I've some cough medicine if it'll help with that

[theoldman]

13. Obama did well initially because he had good managers.

Clinton did not do well initially because she did not have a good manager. Right now she has her act together and has not hit any big bumps since the lying incident. Obama must get over the Wright incident or he will lose. Only time will tell.

The bottom line is that campaign managers win elections. Bush won because he had good managers not because he was a good candidate. Gore lost because he had poor managers.

[blm]

19. Bush won ONLY because RNC spent years gaining control of the election process at every level

where the votes are allowed, cast and counted.

And the DNC under the stewardship of Clinton loyalists sat on their hands since the mid 90s and LET THEM DO IT.

Bush didn't win - the RNC stole it for him in 2000 and 2004. The DNC let them do it.

[RiverStone]

15. If it goes to the convention, we ALL lose.

The SuperD's have NEVER over-ruled the pledged delegates votes in the 30 years they have been around.

History will not be made this time either.

There simply will not be enough compelling evidence to toss all the Obama supporters, his massive fund raising machine, and his 2:1 winning states contest margin in the garbage. It would split the party for a generation.

If Obama has 3 straight wins by Wednesday morning, expect the SD's to end it within the week.

[cbayer]

21. Very good analysis.

I think the only fair solution is a unity ticket. When the party is so evenly split over the style and personality of two candidates with comparable records and platforms, I don't see why we would not go with a joint ticket and perhaps have something close to a co-presidency.

Last night, there was an OP title saying that Clinton and Obama would be appearing together. My first thought was, "They have finally fixed this. They are going to announce their ticket."

[bunnies]

22. except that it isnt 50/50...

Fact is... Obama has the majority as well as an insurmountable pledged delegate lead. Dont believe the hype.

[TeamJordan23]

23. The race ended after Obama won 10+ in a row. nm

[Armstead]

25. It obviously hasn't.....Clinton has been rebounding

A lot of it is probably the coincidence of timing. As one analyst noted rather than being a changing picture, the primaries are actually more of a rolling snapshot of the inclinations of different states.

It was well known that Obama was going to hit a rough patch later on, with Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania. If those states had also been on Super Tuesday or right after it, the race might have been more even.

And, for better or worse, Hillary has been improving her standing while Obama has dipped in the past month or so.

She's still behind in delegates, but there are still unknowns, and she is closing the gap in votes in some respects.

Personally, I'm an Obama supporter and I would prefer that Hillary drop out. But objectively looking at this, I think unless something dramatic happens, this could go on and on and on.

[bhikkhu]

26. "Closing the gap" doesn't really matter, even if it were true.

The only gap she has closed that I can see is that public opinion gives her a 50/50 chance to win the nomination. As far as delegates and projections her odds have been steadily declining since Feb 5.

Today it looks like Obama has taken Guam and he is that much closer to a nearly certain projected lock on May 20.

[Armstead]

27. You're going by the rules -- But apparently the rules don't count anymore

According to the rules set down, you are absolutely correct.

But we went into a zone where the objective rules don't matter anymore. We in an area of perception, with the Superdelegates holding the cards. And the party divided between Clinton and Obama loyalists. There's going to be a big mass of Democrats who will feel disenfranchised no matter which one wins, unless something dramatic shakes up the equation.

I'm not condoning it. It will be a mess if the stalemate is not resolved soon. But that's the way I'm perceiving what happens now. Your mileage may vary.

[bhikkhu]

29. The rules still apply, and the SD's have been following them.

They are individuals with personal loyalties and various commitments and constituencies. On the whole, there have followed the paths that they would be statistically predicted to follow. The popular vote is about 50/50 and the SD counts are about 50/50.

As this has been steady through every reputed tidal shift, media drama-fest or career-ending gaffe on either side, we can expect it to continue to remain steady. On or before May 20, then, Obama will lock in the nomination, with all of the delegate support that the rules say he needs.

[Armstead]

30. Time will tell....I hope it's over soon too.

[depakid]

28. I think it may well go to the convention

where it it's possible that a compromise candidate will be chosen to break the deadlock.

This would have been the more probable result had Edwards not bailed out before Super Tuesday, but it could still happen- and IMO represents by far the best chance of winning in November.

[Andrea]

31. That's the way it looks to me, too. n/t