The Wisdom of Crowds - Why our little teacup tempests in DU are meaningless

[RichardRay]

“No one in this world, so far as I know, has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people.” —H. L. Mencken

Mencken was wrong.

For all of us who consider ourselves 'experts' in something, it's tough to accept and a rude whack up alongside the head, but we're not all that smart. Any bonafide expert may be smarter than the average member of a crowd, but he/she is not smarter than the crowd as a whole.

There are certainly ways to pervert that fact, but those pathologies don't change the fact. Given these elements, the crowd wins:

Diversity of opinion

Each person should have private information even if it's just an eccentric interpretation of the known facts.

That's a given.

Independence

People's opinions aren't determined by the opinions of those around them.

Tougher to acheive, especially when the 'experts' all deride their 'lessers'.

Decentralization

People are able to specialize and draw on local knowledge.

Got that one, although the Internet actually doesn't help.

Aggregation

Some mechanism exists for turning private judgments into a collective decision.

Got that, too, as long as the voting machines work and the mail doesn't get lost.

(see: Surowiecki, O’Reilly, Hutton, even Machiavelli (section LVIII)



So, for those of the DU-sphere who have a problem with 'the sheeple', 'joe sixpack', 'xxx-bots' or 'xxxx-maniacs', lighten up. Yes, the hoi-polloi may get it wrong sometimes, may not have shiny discourse and argumentation skills and may not even write good, but they're smarter than we are. In the long run, the crowd wins, and that's a good thing, and it's just about the only thing that gives me any confidence in the long run.

[OHdem10]

1. Bravo!!!! Great Post.

[MADem]

2. Yes, but DU isn't "the crowd"--we're just a small mob off to the side of the crowd.

Otherwise, President Kerry would be finishing his first term.

And President Dean would have kicked Senator Kerry's ass in the primaries.

[RichardRay]

3. Exact;ly my point, I thought...

DU would like to believe we're a conclave of experts with better opinions than everybody else. It just isn't so. We're just bozos on the bus.

[IntravenousDemilo]

4. With respect, I disagree. Hoi polloi may be greater in force of numbers, but no, they're not wiser.

Individually, people are mostly big sacks of self-interested venality, but taken together, they're big sacks of self-interested venality squared. All the mob does is validate and confirm the pinheaded opinions of the majority of its members -- "Well most of the people agree with me that the earth is flat, so it must be so." Conventional wisdom is more conventional than wise, and when something becomes popular, one is right to mistrust it. That's why ad populum is considered a logical fallacy: the vast majority of people have no idea what they're talking about, especially in areas outside their expertise.

[RichardRay]

6. Did you look at any of the links I provided?

It turns out that you're likely wrong in that opinion. Given the requirements I listed, the crowd does better.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

5. "Some mechanism exists for turning private judgments into a collective decision."

Guesses:

Religion
Government
Knowledge
Instinct
Tribalism
Self-preservation
Word-of-mouth
Electronic communication
Magic
Herd mentality
Omniscience
Vision






:thumbsup:

[RichardRay]

7. Voting? Caucuses? Conventions? n/t

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

8. "Government" covers that.

Right?

[RichardRay]

9. Yes, I agree while we're talking about politics.

The concept extends to lots of other realms where the mechanism might not be managed by the government.

[Uncle Joe]

10. Diversity of opinion + Independence + Decentralization + Aggregation = Internet influenced voting.

I believe the Internet creates a greater mind than the individual people which make up it's posts or blogs. The Internet is increasingly becoming more of the crowd everyday and everybody can bring something to the table.

Thanks for the thread RichardRay