MattNC
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Mon May-05-08 10:53 AM
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PPP NC: Obama (53) ; Clinton (43) |
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Edited on Mon May-05-08 11:11 AM by MattNC
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_050608.pdfObama leads 84-11 among blacks Clinton leads 60-34 among whites Margin of error 3.3%
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MadBadger
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Mon May-05-08 10:54 AM
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1. Stable since last week, her gaining only two points. PPP is based out of NC so I trust them. |
writes3000
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Mon May-05-08 10:57 AM
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2. Did not know that. Good to know. And thanks, MattNC. |
MattNC
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Mon May-05-08 10:59 AM
Response to Reply #1 |
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I think it'll probably be Obama by high single digits, but I won't be surprised if he wins by well over 10 either.
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MadBadger
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Mon May-05-08 11:01 AM
Response to Reply #5 |
10. I'm still thinking 12 points. |
cali
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Mon May-05-08 10:57 AM
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3. kick- though I'd really like to see Obama do better among whites |
Zynx
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Mon May-05-08 10:58 AM
Response to Original message |
4. That sounds about right. I anticipated Hillary winning about 62-38 among whites and |
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Obama winning 90-10 among blacks which comes up with about that percentage spread.
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MadBadger
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Mon May-05-08 11:00 AM
Response to Reply #4 |
7. Me too, give or take a few points. |
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Most of my predictions have been using a 60-40 white vote split and a 90-10 black vote. I think the margin will depend on black-white vote ratio.
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Zynx
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Mon May-05-08 11:01 AM
Response to Reply #7 |
11. I think they have it about right in this polling sample. |
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Some polls had it closer to a 40% share for the black vote, but I think 35% is a fair estimate.
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MattNC
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Mon May-05-08 11:20 AM
Response to Reply #11 |
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in early voting. Probably a little higher than election day numbers if I had to guess.
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maxsolomon
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Mon May-05-08 11:00 AM
Response to Original message |
6. as a caucasian obama supporter, i'd like to ask |
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what's with the caucasian support for hillary at almost 2:1?
i realize i'm a wine drinking saab driving advance degreed tree hugging elitist, but out here in WA state, its a landslide for obama.
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MadBadger
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Mon May-05-08 11:01 AM
Response to Reply #6 |
8. Well, your in NW liberal land. NC, though it has the college educated liberals, its still the south |
MattNC
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Mon May-05-08 11:02 AM
Response to Reply #6 |
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Edited on Mon May-05-08 11:04 AM by MattNC
runs well in the major cities among whites, it won't be such a landslide among them. if he breaks 40% with whites statewide, he's headed for a big win.
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Independent-Voter
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Mon May-05-08 11:03 AM
Response to Reply #6 |
13. It's likely the far east and west end of the state. I'm interested to see how the districts shake |
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out. The I-40 / I-85 corridor should go strongly for Obama.
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mrreowwr_kittty
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Mon May-05-08 11:03 AM
Response to Reply #6 |
14. Low information voters, mostly. |
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Those Obama-is-a-Muslim-who-doesn't-say-the-Pledge emails go out like crazy in states that are about to have a primary. It seemed that every white voter I talked to in NV had gotten one. And god knows what kind of robo-calls and flyers they're getting.
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democrattotheend
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Mon May-05-08 11:01 AM
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9. Obama leading big among early voters |
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63-34 among those who have already voted. That's encouraging, I guess.
This may be one election where Obama actually outperforms the exit poll. Usually it's the other way around.
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MadBadger
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Mon May-05-08 11:06 AM
Response to Reply #9 |
15. 29 percent early voters |
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matches up with the 26% that Zogby had.
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thevoiceofreason
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Mon May-05-08 11:11 AM
Response to Reply #9 |
16. And, from the results I had door to door in Durham this weekend |
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There had been very little early voting in the African American precincts - folks said they liked to vote on election day.
That could be a very good sign.
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oldhickory1767
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Mon May-05-08 11:45 AM
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18. Obama propped up by the AA vote as usual |
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Edited on Mon May-05-08 11:46 AM by oldhickory1767
just the facts folks
bad news for the GE.
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MattNC
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Mon May-05-08 11:47 AM
Response to Reply #18 |
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somehow counts less than others?
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Iceburg
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Mon May-05-08 11:55 AM
Response to Original message |
20. Darn, he was up +25 on 04/20 -- 15 point drop in 15 days...YIKES/nt |
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