Obama Loses Both NC and IN (what if)

[McHatin]

Then what? Obama will still have a large lead among pledged delegates and even among the popular vote, an insurmountable lead in fact.

The ONLY option for Clinton will be to try to sit Michigan and Florida as is, the nuclear option. That is her ONLY option. The sooner people realize this the better.

Why is this her only option? Because, the superdelegates will NOT overturn the will of the people. They KNOW it would be political suicide and would lead to the Democrats losing the GE.

And guess what? The nuclear option will also cause us to lose the GE. What it all comes down to, and what many people have known for a long time, is waiting. The superdelegates are NOT waiting to see who is more electable, they are waiting for the states to finish their primaries so that it does not look like the superdelegates decided the election prematurely before everyone got to vote by tossing in with Obama.

No matter what happens today, Obama is the nominee. It is just a matter of time.

For those who think that Clinton still has a chance, do you honestly think the Democratic Party would not rip apart if she won through the nuke option or superdelegates overturning the will of the people? Do you give her a chance in the GE with such back room dealing? That can be the only logical reasoning for still thinking she can win the GE using the options before her to get the nomination.

Obama has won the nomination, what is left is the necessity of letting everyone's vote be counted first. I think this is very important and should be done, I want every vote counted. But take it for what it is, a way to unify the Democrat Party instead of divide it. If Hillary realized this, she would keep running but would be ripping into McCain instead of Obama, but it seems she doesn't get this, and that makes it impossible for me to respect her.

[NightWatcher]

1. how about he wins NC and loses IN, still gains delegates, Hillary falls further BEHIND

the only measureable portion of delegates are supers, with more supers in play than pledged delegates in play.

I think the supers are gonna flodd in starting tomorrow

[Me.]

2. Right

Why the doomsday scenario?

[McHatin]

8. Because

My father always told me when I would worry about something to think "what's the worst that could happen?" It tends to put things in perspective. For Obama, this is the worst thing that could happen to him today. And guess what? Nothing really changes in the race, whatever the pundits say. From this perspective, we should conclude that Clinton's strategy of tearing down Obama will not get her elected and can in fact only hurt us in November. Realizing this might encourage a more civil primary the rest of the way out, one that unites the party.

[Me.]

12. How About

Trying to think about the best that can happen? Expectations add a quotient to outcome. If you always think about the worst, it's usually what you get.

[Oleladylib]

3. That is far more your problem than it is hers. n/t

[whistle]

4. At this point nothing is known

[CPschem]

5. You should add a "what if" to your subject line.

No need to get people all worked up.

[IronLionZion]

6. Here, play around with CNN's delegate calculator.

Go ahead and give Hillarity the remaining states with 70% each and half the superdelegates. It will make you feel really good.

Yes we can!

[McHatin]

9. I am looking at things realistically

I know that's hard for some to do.

[IronLionZion]

14. Even if you look at things with wild-eyed Hillary-style lunacy

she still won't win enough delegates. That was my point. Sorry if I wasn't clear before.

[McHatin]

17. Sorry

I guess my sarcasm detector is off :)

[lapfog_1]

7. Win or lose today

she is GOING to use the nuclear option. She has filed the challenges already. She has the votes on the Rules and Bylaws committee to force a floor fight (even if the Rules committee votes against the challenges, she has enough supporters to force a minority report and appeal).

By forcing a floor fight (or even a fight in the Credentials committee) she prolongs the "uncertainty" until the convention. She won't win the nomination there (that, as you accurately predict, is already decided but unannounced), but she WILL split the party and cause Obama to lose to McCain this fall.

And THAT allows her to run again in 2012.

That's my read of her "plan".

She may even broadly HINT at this plan in an effort to scare the remaining Super-Ds to just GIVE her the nomination this year... as a loss in November could hurt down-ticket Dems (which would be the Super-Ds themselves).

[NightWatcher]

10. I think the SD's will not want Hillary to burn the party for her own edification

they will come out tomorrow when Hillary cant win- through normal channels. The Super's want ALL dems to win this November. They want to be re-elected, they want a super majority in Congress. They do not want to watch Hillary burn the party for 4 more years. The Hillary campaign has BEGGED supers to hold off with coming forward. There is a deluge of supers waiting to hand it to Obama (since he DID win the popular vote and state totals)

[lapfog_1]

13. Hillary lives in a bubble...

and probably has for 18 years now.

I just don't think she has it within her to NOT do these things.

If she had such principles, would she have run the campaign the way she has?

[NightWatcher]

16. and Howard Dean and the Supers have a real big pin........POP!

[AllentownJake]

11. Party officials

may be scared by this...elected representative that currently endorse her will be worried about the effect of going Nuclear. She'll lose a lot of them by pulling the trigger on this and she'll lose almost as much as she gains in delegates and also destroy any goodwill she had left within the party.

She'd be an outcast worse than Lieberman.

[The Night Owl]

15. Champagne time for me. Hillary is my girl.

Of course, I will be very dissappointed... scratch that... angry if Hillary does not choose Barack as her running mate.

[McHatin]

20. A Hillary/Obama ticket

Would be an interesting scenario, but I'm still not so sure that a significant number of Obama supporters would not defect if Hillary gets the head job by overturning the will of the people. Of course, I'm looking at this through Obama glasses.

Now an Obama/Hillary ticket, that has a better ring to it ;-)

Actually, any "dream ticket" scenario is hard to think of right now, with all the bitterness this primary has created. But hey, the Germans and the French get along nowadays, so I guess it is possible.

[The Night Owl]

22. The beauty of the dream ticket scenario is that it could do a lot to get rid of the bitterness.

[MindMatter]

23. Obama is a gentleman

He will not humiliate her (any more than she has done to herself).

But he will also not carry her on the ticket to help her save face. There are better ways to save face for her. I never want to see her as President, but there are other important roles that I think would suit her fine and be very good opportunities for her to rehabilitate her image -- maybe even become a statesman.

Remember that Jimmy Carter was despised far and wide as he left office. In his case, he was the victim of circumstances (the rise of OPEC and the hostage crisis) as well as a lot of behind the scenes maneuvering by the people we would later come to know as the neocons.

Nonetheless, he was considered a horrible President and booed out of office. As unfair as that might have been, it was what happened. And look at him now. He is one of the great statesmen ever, one of the most respected persons to ever walk on this planet.

All I'm saying is that many of us have a very low opinion of the Clintons -- and they have earned this lack of esteem far more than Carter ever did. But they can also make the choices to become real statesmen and leave a more heroic legacy.

I'm surprised Bill's ex-Presidency has been so devoid of accomplishment. One would have thought a man facing an epitaph like "Here lies the President who is best known for getting blowjobs from an intern young enough to be his granddaughter." would be enough to motivate the man to do something constructive. Fortunately for him, he may still have time to leave a better legacy than that.

And how would you like to be the guy who chisels the word "blowjob" into that headstone. I doubt that happens very often. :)

[The Night Owl]

26. Bill Clinton has done a lot of good since the end of his presidency. You're just too wrapped up...

...in your irrational and childish hatred of Hillary Clinton to acknowledge any of it.

[MindMatter]

27. It is a mixed bag

If he wants to reverse his legacy, he needs to be far more dedicated to the improvement of the human condition.

The path he is on indicated to me he doesn't intend to do anything about hi s legacy. That's his choice, of course. Most Presidents don't.

But then again, most of them are too old or feeble when they leave office to have much of an impact. He had an opportunity, being relatively youthful, and of sound mind and body, to make something out of the rest of his life. He decided to remain mainly a politician instead of a statesman. Too bad for him. I think it was a poor choice. But I didn't think Monica was such a brilliant choice either.

[The Night Owl]

28. Gosh... Only a few minutes ago, you were arguing that Bill Clinton's life has been...

...devoid of accomplishment ever since his presidency ended. Now all of a sudden, you're describing it as being a mixed bag. Oh well... at least you're backpeddling toward reality instead of away from it.

Mindmatter... LOL!

[MindMatter]

34. Not at all. A mixed bag doesn't cut it

A mixed bag is not much better than an empty bag. He is correctly seen as essentially a lifelong politician. Even though he might have mixed in the occasional selfless act, it is not enough to change anybody's thinking about him.

There really is a certain threshold, and it is a fairly high one, that a person has to meet to get on the sort of path that Jimmy Carter and Al Gore have taken. These guys have created legacies that completely transcend whatever opinion you might have held about their their prior service. Bill Clinton doesn't seem to have any interest in building that kind of legacy. Again, he served his time. He can decide what to do with his life and what kind of legacy he wants to leave behind.

[The Night Owl]

36. Arguing that Bill Clinton has not contributed as much as Al Gore and Jimmy Carter...

...is reasonable and probably correct too, but that was not your initial argument. Your initial argument was that Bill Clinton has not contributed anything since leaving the White House. Demonstrably not true. You should probably retract that claim and apologize for it. Words matter... remember?

[MindMatter]

41. His NET contribution has been negative

I don't see any reason to take that back. What I said was true.

[On the Road]

18. Obama Could Certainly Back into the Nomination

but it's hard to see how he won't get it now. The two Wright controversies didn't exactly torpedo his campaign -- it just dropped him a couple points in November, if that.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

19. Phoenix Suns Win 2008 NBA Championship! (what if)

Just as likely a scenario as the OP... :sigh:

[McHatin]

21. There is no question

Cleveland wins it this year ;-)

[Tarc]

24. The party is already ripped apart anyways, what's your point?

You clowns keep crying and crying about Obama voters not supporting Clinton if she manges to win the nomination as if that is is a valid reason to vote for him instead. Well, there's just as much resentment and anger over on the the side of Obama is the nominee.

[McHatin]

25. The point is this

If Obama wins the nomination fairly, by having the most pledged delegates and popular vote, Hillary supporters will be much more likely to vote for him than if he had sealed the nomination by overturning the will of the majority. Same for Obama supporters and Clinton. The primary has come to the point where Hillary can't win without overturning the popular and pledged delegate count with back room deals.

The party is split now, but will unify behind the nominee, as long as the nominee won the nomination fair and square. Otherwise, the party will remain split. That's the difference.

[Tarc]

30. If Clinton wins, it will be "fair and square"

unless there's allegations of vote-rigging or something direct.

[barack the house]

29. Yep it mostly comes down to letting them all have their say.

[Khaotic]

31. HIllary Will Go Nuclear

She will then get the nomination.

I will then support McKinney in November.

[sellitman]

32. And when you state that on DU

You will be gone.

Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

[terrell9584]

33. Popular vote lead won't be insurmountable

Clinton will get better than 70% in both Kentucky and West Virginia, and these are both states where the local government machinery is under Democratic control, so more people are registered as Democrats, if just to vote for Sheriff.

Unless Obama can get 70% in Oregon, there are not enough votes there to counteract the vote of Kentucky, and if the states voting today is indication, you will see GE turnout levels in KY and WV. Not a good day for Obama, he probably loses ground of 250-350k voters right there, maybe more.

Then everything plays out like we expect, I do expect Montana to be a bit closer cause for whatever reason, more than other mountain states, Montana is a state that is more redneck, and they have a culture that Clinton could play into.

Puerto Rico probably has the votes to put Clinton on top if turnout is high enough, popular vote wise.

There is an argument that can be made for not seating Michigan as is, you can't really make that argument about Florida because how Florida politics are structured, specifically, people in Florida deal with closed primaries, and they register as they do so they can vote for their local offices. Yankees may have moved there, but in the structural political sense, it is still a Southern state.

[TheDonkey]

35. A lot of whining and crying. Obama still in the lead and wins nomination

Hillbots explode.

[frickaline]

37. then hell freezes over and money starts falling from the sky

[PoliticalAmazon]

38. Seriously, I have two older Republican fans who will buy a second home in Costa Rica....

if Hillary wins, and live there until she is out of office.

[Jersey Devil]

39. He'd still get the nomination, but would be a much weaker candidate

And isn't that why Hillary is still around?

"Hillary 2012" started a few months ago, probably right after Wisconsin

[oasis]

40. Disenchanted Democrats would do well to focus on the SCOTUS.(eom)