Obama plans to declare victory May 20

[Khaotic]

Politico, May 8, 2008
Obama plans to declare victory May 20
By DAVID PAUL KUHN
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10184.html

Not long after the polls close in the May 20 Kentucky and Oregon primaries, Barack Obama plans to declare victory in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination.

And, until at least May 31 and perhaps longer, Hillary Clinton’s campaign plans to dispute it.

It’s a train wreck waiting to happen, with one candidate claiming to be the nominee while the other vigorously denies it, all predicated on an argument over what exactly constitutes the finish line of the primary race.

The Obama campaign agrees with the Democratic National Committee, which pegs a winning majority at 2,025 pledged delegates and superdelegates—a figure that excludes the penalized Florida and Michigan delegations. The Clinton campaign, on the other hand, insists the winner will need 2,209 to cinch the nomination—a tally that includes Florida and Michigan.

“We don’t accept 2,025. It is not the real number because that does not include Florida and Michigan,” said Howard Wolfson, one of Clinton’s two chief strategists. “It’s a phony number.”

Wolfson said they intend to contest the DNC’s 2,025 number “every day,” as well as any declaration of victory made by Obama based upon that number, because it does not include Florida and Michigan.

In January, Clinton won both states by wide margins when Obama did not actively contest them. The two states were stripped of their delegates for holding early primaries not sanctioned by the Democratic National Committee.

Obama will not reach the 2,025 magic number on May 20. Rather, on that date he is all but certain to hit a different threshold—1,627 pledged delegates, which would constitute a winning majority among the 3,253 total pledged delegates if Florida and Michigan are not included.

“On May 20 we’re going to declare victory,” said an Obama senior advisor who asked that his name be withheld to speak candidly, adding that after those contests they will be “the ones with the most pledged delegates and the most popular votes.”

While the nature of that declaration of victory is “still developing,” in the advisor’s words, the Obama campaign contends that the winner of a majority of pledged delegates should be the party nominee.

“Senator Obama, our campaign and our supporters believe pledged delegates is the most legitimate metric for determining how this race has unfolded,” wrote Obama campaign manager David Plouffe Wednesday in a memo to superdelegates. “It is simply the ratification of the DNC rules - your rules - which we built this campaign and our strategy around.”

But the Clinton campaign’s insistence on counting Florida and Michigan would alter not only the overall delegate math, but the pledged delegate math as well. Because if the two states are included in the count, the total number of pledged delegates would rise from 3,253 to 3,566—which means the magic number for a majority rises to 1,784, not 1,627 as the Obama campaign asserts.

By hewing to that interpretation, the Clinton campaign would thus be able to raise doubts about a May 20 declaration of victory by Obama.

Since the earliest possible resolution of the Florida/Michigan dispute is May 31, when the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee will meet in Washington to address petitions from Michigan and Florida DNC members, the 11-day period between the May 20 primaries and the RBC meeting could produce a chaotic stretch where Obama claims to be the party nominee while Clinton argues otherwise.

Already, the two campaigns are gearing up for the battle.

“With the Clinton path to the nomination getting even narrower, we expect new and wildly creative scenarios to emerge in the coming days,” wrote Plouffe in his memo. “While those scenarios may be entertaining, they are not legitimate and will not be considered legitimate by this campaign or its millions of supporters, volunteers, and donors.”

“You can declare mission accomplished but that doesn’t mean that the mission has actually been accomplished,” Wolfson said.

[Occam Bandage]

1. “We don't accept 2025. It's not the real number...It’s a phony number.”

[Khaotic]

8. Great comparison!

[high density]

2. Even the talking heads on TV are rolling their eyes at the 2209 BS

You know something is wrong when the people who live on this race going on are raising the BS flag on this crap.

At this point it seems the Clinton campaign is doing the Bush "create your own reality" thing. It pains me so to see a Democratic campaign stoop to this level.

[Pisces]

3. If Clinton wants to play these games the Supers will come out for Obama, further humiliating

Clinton. She can do nothing with grace. Rachel Maddow was correct.

[TragedyandHope]

4. Well, get to it

Everyone has been begging for a real fight forever. Give them what they want.

[City Lights]

5. She's in deep denial.

The longer she refuses to acknowledge reality, the more foolish she looks.

[Ganja Ninja]

6. Hillary's not really running any longer.

I know she's talking like she has a prayer but she knows she doesn't. She knows she has a couple of wins coming up in WV and KY and she's going through the motions so she can keep her fund raising in place. She's only in it now so she can get back some of the money her campaign owes her.

[FightingIrish]

11. Tonight in Oregon she kept a half-full arena waiting two

hours while did a fund raising gig in a more affluent neighboring town. It was a $2,300 per plate affair and pretty much confirms that it is more about dollars than votes from here on out.

[rocktivity]

7. Source: "an Obama senior adviser who asked that his name be withheld to speak candidly"

Politico: The political answer to TMZ!

But seriously, folks, Hillary can squawk all she wants. By the May 31 DNC MI/FL meeeting, she'll have no pledged delegate lead, no superdelegate lead, no popular vote lead, no total win lead, no money--and consequently, no leverage.

:eyes:
rocknation

[Khaotic]

9. 2 true

[beachmom]

10. This is a very speculative article. I think the Obama campaign will declare

themselves the winner of the pledged delegate majority. That will be true. But I guarantee you it won't be the Obama campaign insisting she step aside. It'll be somebody like Chuck Schumer doing it.

[davidpdx]

12. The whole denial about the 2,025 delegates need to clinch the nomination

is just a farce. She's gone from ridiculous to plain loony. If the DNC says 2,025 are needed, then that's what's needed. Another example of her campaign changing the rules.