Weekly Standard: Bad to Worse News For McCain Against Obama

[DrFunkenstein]

From comrade Fred Barnes:

The political environment isn't as bad as it was in 2006 when Republicans lost both houses of Congress and a lot more. But it's close.

More than 80 percent of Americans believe the nation is heading in the wrong direction. Democrats have steadily maintained the 10 percentage point lead in voter preference they gained two years ago. And President Bush's job performance rating is stuck in the low 30s, a level of unpopularity that weakens the Republican case for holding the White House in 2008.

There's another piece of polling data that is both intriguing and indicative. In a Wall Street Journal/NBC survey last month, John McCain fared better with Republican voters (84 percent to 8 percent) than Barack Obama did with Democrats (78 percent to 12 percent). McCain was also stronger than Obama among independent voters (46 percent to 35 percent).

These are terrific numbers for McCain. But they aren't enough. In the overall match-up, McCain trailed Obama (43 percent to 46 percent). The explanation for this seeming paradox is quite simple: The Republican base has shrunk. In 2008, there are fewer Republicans.

"It's the erosion in party affiliation that's pulling McCain down," says a Republican strategist, and it could doom his chances of winning the presidency. The strategist fears Republican leaders and McCain campaign officials "don't realize the trouble they're going to be in."

The worst news for Republicans in recent weeks has been the capture by Democrats of two Republican House seats in special elections in Illinois and Louisiana. Poorly chosen candidates were responsible for the defeats, Republicans insist. Maybe, but success in special elections usually foreshadows success in the next general election.

McCain must overcome a "generic" presidential preference for a Democratic president of 51 percent to 33 percent (in the WSJ/NBC poll). He'll have to appeal more strongly than Obama to independents, moderates, and soft Democrats. The good news for McCain is that 20 percent of Clinton supporters in primary exit polls and other surveys say they'll vote for him over Obama.

Republicans need a minimum of 45 senators to pursue a filibuster strategy and block or alter Democratic legislation. They currently hold 49 Senate seats, but at least 7 of those are in jeopardy this year. Only 41 votes are required for a successful filibuster, but a few Republicans always defect--thus the need for 45.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/015/096pstor.asp

[opihimoimoi]

1. Big Picture: Pubs have overplayed their hands for so long and the results for America suck

This is the year Them Pubs get smoked.

McCane is McDOOM....Top Pubs know this, hence McCane....

and, they not gonna waste a VP candidate on the losing effort...it will be a show of sorts gearing up for 2012....in the meantime...McDoom will drown under a sea of voter revolt from the Pub Party.

They sowed the seeds of BS and now they are gonna pay.

[Leo 9]

2. The soon to be a used to be a party, party.

[DearAbby]

3. Isn't that just spiffy?

[TwilightGardener]

4. Bottom line: no matter what the polls say, no matter what's happening

in October, no matter what the big issues are, and barring something very unusual and unforeseen: few are going to pick a 72-year-old man over a 47-year old man (black or not). Obama is not Mondale. McCain is not Reagan--he's Bob Dole.

[stevietheman]

6. and probably even less respected than Dole amongst conservatives. n/t

n/t

[stevietheman]

5. Re: Clinton supporters for McCain

"The good news for McCain is that 20 percent of Clinton supporters in primary exit polls and other surveys say they'll vote for him over Obama."

But how many of that 20% is Republicans and independents who participated for spoilage purposes, and how many of these are out-and-out racists who we'll never get anyway, and how many of these are just a good number of angry Hillary supporters who will ultimately come home?

I'm not worried.

[Wapsie B]

10. Exactly.

I'd venture a guess that a good percentage of these fair-weather friends of Hillary are nothing more than part of the Rush brigade.

[MindMatter]

14. And what are those demographics?

The least educated whites. No surprise there that they follow the GOP and Limbaugh. The only honest support base of any significance Clinton has is older white women. I know quite a few and have been surprised just how strongly they feel about Hillary. They are all intelligent people and I know they will be with us in November.

[cloudythescribbler]

12. I think that a woman on the ticket -- NOT Hillary -- would alleviate much of that loss

especially if she is an especially appealing candidate that really is likely to unite the party. There are a number of good possibilities, but I think Barbara Boxer is the best.

I also think that the war/the MONEY for the war/tax the rich -- and using the money for foreclosure relief, green jobs/energy independence using renewable sources, and the Democrats' health coverage should be a winning combo.

Of course, I think we need to be ready for a press that, as in 04, is obediently geared to maximizing the strength of the Republican ticket (including the Democratic media, like the New York Times, especially the Matt Bais of the world)

[stevietheman]

13. That, or somebody reasonable from the Clinton camp, like Wes Clark.

He would balance Obama in so many ways, including foreign policy knowledge.

[MindMatter]

15. Wes Clark works from every angle.

He is close to the Clintons, so he can help with reconciliation.

He is a strong military man, so he can definitely help Obama fight off the inevitable "soft on terror" attacks from the right.

While he is of an older generation, he is not a lifelong beltway insider. Therefore, he lends maturity and stability to the ticket while still allowing Obama to make the case fro real change in how Washington business is done.

He is good looking, energetic looking. While we shouldn't judge on appearances, millions will. This is a ticket that immediately looks the part. Vital, driven, wise, and thoughtful.

This would definitely be my dream ticket.

[Tarheel_Dem]

16. I love Barbara, but she wouldn't necessarily add anything?

And she would be labeled as a "Hollywood Liberal". Gov. Sebellius of KS seems to be a good choice. She has the executive experience that Obama lacks, but most here seem to think that he needs to pick a Hillary surrogate. I'm just not sure.

[TragedyandHope]

7. Not Bush III, but Bob Dole II

Despite all his crimes, Bush is actually the President. Dole was a failed candidate, just as McCain is.

John McCain: Bob Dole, The Second Coming

[whatchamacallit]

8. Terrified Hillary supporters take note

DUH!

[cloudythescribbler]

9. I don't trust the MSM for the GE -- we Dems need to aim for MAXIMUM support for Obama in Nov

One thing I think will help is for Obama to pick a woman running mate, NOT Hillary Clinton, but someone VERY popular and likeable, and without her baggage -- and a long strong record including on foreign policy to boot.

Barbara Boxer fills these requirements. I also think that a REALLY HEAVY bread-and-butter emphasis is what will win (back to "It's the economy, stupid" as in 92). (Of course, the war is very big, especially as it ties into the economy, and so does energy policy -- so there's an overall picture of two different directions for the majority to pick greener energy, more energy independence, saving the fortunes McCain wants to spend on Iraq and investing them creating good jobs at home -- including eco-industrialization.

That sounds like a majority-appeal focus for 08 to me.

[invictus]

11. President Barack Obama ... I love the sound of that. :)

[DrFunkenstein]

17. Enthusiasm Gap: Fundraising, Turnout, Grassroots Infrastructure, A Health Care Plan

Fired up! Ready to go!