Hillary's path to POTUS

[Egnever]

Is it still possible to be president? A couple of questions.


1. Did Edwards hand us an Obama primary win by dropping out?

2. If Hillary decided to run a third party candidacy would she win because Obama and mcsame split the independent vote?


I think had Edwards not dropped when he did Hillary would have squeaked out a win. John wasn't going to win but his 15% that he was carrying would have been enough to let hillary take the margins in enough states to change the outcome.

Which is why I feel that if Hillary did go third party she just might win. Her supporters seem to resemble Bush supporters in that they will stick by her no matter what she does. I don't believe that once attention is truly focused on mcsame he will really have a shot in hell of getting the nod. I think he will be blown out in epic proportions. His base doesn't like him, it wont take much to convince them to stay home. Which would give us an easy dem win unless Hillary went the third party route. Then it would get pretty interesting. Given the turnout so far from the primaries there is enough dem participation to leave room for two candidates and still beat mcsame. Given Hillaries firm support I think if mcsame siphoned off independents from Obama it would be enough for Hillary to win a third party run.

Personally I am ready for a third party. I wouldn't want to join hill's but its past time to get some other options.

I think the real fight this season is for the head of the dem party, its old school 50%+1 vs new school people powered 50 state strategy. The old guard is not giving up power easily and I think at this point a lot are trying to figure out how to retain it at any cost.

I don't really believe this scenario will play out I just wonder what peoples thoughts are on the possibility of it playing out the way I describe. Could Hillary still win the presidency through a third party run?

[nomorewhopper]

1. hillary cannot run 3rd party

you have to declare these kinds of things ages in advance.

she's running for the democratic party. there will be no third party bid for her.

[Egnever]

5. when is the deadline for filing?

[Wickerman]

6. is that a rule of some sort

or is it conventional wisdom? I suppose in the campaign finance rules it would state something to that effect... Any links?

[nomorewhopper]

10. its a law

we have laws to govern presidential elections so we can provide safe transitions of goverment with little chance of perceived fraud. (see MI and FL for what happens when people start doing crazy things to elections)

[Wickerman]

11. can you cite the law?

I think she would just have to declare her independent run prior to ballot deadline. I hope you can cite a law that would permit her from doing so as I'd hate to see it happen.

Note: Wickerman has no horse, at this point, in the race.

[nomorewhopper]

13. Link describing the process. She cannot get her name on ballot for third party

http://www.slate.com/id/2154162/

it's not a game people. you cannot just switch party affiliations and expect to be included on ballots, or run for president on a different ticket.

it's crazy to think that this can happen.

[Egnever]

15. I didnt see anything in your link about the ability to change parties

Or a deadline on filing. Though I am sure there must be one.

[Wickerman]

16. thanks, appreciate the link (and the law)

though I don't actually see that addressed. Your link discusses public financing. Didn't she drop out of Public Financing?

[Wickerman]

17. Looks like she would have to declare tomorrow

If one were to want to be on the Texas ballot. This infor from an article in 2007 about Bloomberg considering a run...

Bloomberg aides have studied the process for starting independent campaigns, which formally begins March 5, when third-party candidates can begin circulating nominating petitions in Texas. If Democrats and Republicans have settled on their presumptive nominees at that point, Mr. Bloomberg will have to decide whether he believes those candidates are vulnerable to a challenge from a pragmatic, progressive centrist, which is how he would promote himself.

The filing deadline for the petitions, which must be signed by approximately 74,000 Texas voters who did not participate in the state’s Democratic or Republican primaries, is May 12.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/31/us/politics/31bloomberg.html

[Egnever]

19. Interesting thatnks for that

[Egnever]

18. aparently she can in at least Mass though I assume she probably could in many more

Write-in candidates may also run, but only if their names and their slate of elector candidates have been filed by Friday, September 5, 2008 with the Secretary of the Commonwealth.

looks like she has till august in virginia


DEADLINE
ACTION REQUIRED
Friday, August 22, 2008
by Noon
§ 24.2-542
§ 24.2-543
Deadline for other groups to file presidential petitions with
the State Board of Elections. See Ballot Access
Requirements in this bulletin for details.
Deadline for other groups to file the Certificate of
Candidate Qualification signed, under oath, by each
Electoral whose name appears on the petitions.
Deadline for other groups to file a letter certifying the full
names and resident addresses of all electors.
Deadline for a group wishing to use a party name on the
presidential ballot to file with the State Board of Elections
the following:
1. An affidavit, under oath, that the group had:
a. A state central committee composed of registered
voters from each congressional district in Virginia;
b. A party plan and bylaws; and
c. A duly designated chairman and secretary.
2. A list of the names and resident addresses of the
officers and members of the state central committee;
and
3. A copy of the party plan and bylaws.

[nomorewhopper]

21. she already filed. as a democrat. its too late for her. she cannot run 3rd party.

[Egnever]

22. could you please show me where that is laid out?

I dont disbelieve you I would just like to see the rule.

[NC_Nurse]

2. Sounds far fetched to me. Third parties don't tend to do well, and I doubt

most Dems would vote for her.

She doesn't strike me as having a valid reason for starting a new party. Policy-wise she is very close to Obama.
It would be a Sore-Loserman bid, IMO. Hard to pull off nationally.

[Egnever]

3. Far fetched to be sure

Possible though?

[Exilednight]

14. It's not possible. Most state filing deadlines have already passed for independents, and ..........

you can not switch parties to run as another party nominee after failing to achieve your party's nomination. i.e. you can not run in the Democratic primary and then, after failing to achieve the Democratic nominee, switch to the Green party.

In theory, she could run a third party candidacy, but she wouldn't make it on more than half the state ballots.

[Egnever]

20. hmm is that a federal rule only?

How does that apply to lieberman?

[Exilednight]

23. Senate races are run on the state level. Some states have laws for recall elctions of Senators ....

and some do not.

There are some basic federal guidelines for Congress. Age requirements, state residency, and minimum number of years of living in the US, but the rest of the rules are left to the state.

Some states are ass backwards. To run for the state assembly in NY, you are required to live in the district you wish to represent for a minimum of 6 years, but you can move in tomorrow and run for the NY Senate, or House seat in the Federal Congress.

[MikeDJohn]

4. Probably been asked and answered before.

Hillary would have to desert the Dem party, get herself on 50 state ballots, give up lots of Dem staffers and supporters who won't go with her.

Then there's that little problem of $20 in debt she still owes, oops, I meant to say TWENTY MILLION!!!!!!!!!

Where's the incentive for her to run as an independent? Independent voters, pretty much as a whole, are choosing Obama or McCain as of now.

[Egnever]

8. I dont think her target would be independents.

Her targetwqoul be her base. If WV goes heavily for her despite the media all ut declaring he a corpse, does it not leave room for speculation that people would vote for her regardless of the party attached to her name?

[scheming daemons]

7. Hillary's only path to POTUS involves a meteor landing on Obama's head.

[Egnever]

9. Well thats sorta what I am describing here.

[Aloha Spirit]

12. Her path involves chasing this guy

A beautiful wild goose