McCain has a problem on his right flank that spells serious trouble in GA and the West.

[Perky]

That trouble has a name and it is Bob Barr.

Look the enthusiasm for the GOP is at best flat. THe evidence is pretty clear after three special House election in Illinois, Louisiana and Las night in Mississippi Three seats that the GOP ought to be able to hold that the GOP has real problems through out out the party. Two Fundies have never like John McCain and they are in disarray and their leadership is either Geriatric or dead or corrupt or crazy as a loon. They have not developed a second generation of leadership and evangelicals under thirty think the old gurad has lost ther way on a vairety of issues save one: abortion.

They will vote for McCain or they will sit on their hands depending on who his VP is. Huckabee probably helps but it hurts him with other groups.


The big problem is Bob Barr. He is ostensibly from the New Gingrich wing and is still a darling of the North Atlanta Suburbs and he is running as a libertarian and makes a solid case against GOP overreaching into private matters like euthanasia. He will have appeal for his legal bearing and for running point on the impeachment of CLinton. DOn't take that as an an endorsement. but he will have appeal in some areas of the country on that basis.


But look at the math.

In Georgia, H could easily pull 15 percent of the vote come the fall. Given the factors above and a huge African-American turnout. Georgia is up for grabs ans so might South Carolina.

Out west in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada all with strong libertarian leanings you will see additional erosion of support for McCain and to the extend that those are swing states and Obama Taps Bill Richardson or even Janet Napolitano. The Barr effect might put those three states out of McCain's reach if Bar takes 8 to 10 percent instead of three or four percent.

Watch out for a Bob Barr-Ron Paul ticket. as kooky as they may be. those voterr who love Paulfor his opostion to the war are a potent marginal force the McCain CAN NOT OFFORD TO LOSE!

[SparkyMac]

1. I wonder if Barr could throw the election into the House ?

In a close election he could. And if he did, who would win ? At first glance, we would think the Democratic candidate would. But is that necessarily true ?

That is something ELSE the Super delegates need to think about.

[Perky]

2. No way IMHO

He does nothave the infrasturure to win any strates out right. but it does drive a wedge in the GOP and siphone a significant bit of support from libertarians who would otherwise hold their nose and vote for McCain.

If BARR comes out against long occupation in Iraq and anti-illegal immigration. It would spliut the GOP in two or maybe even three.

[Perky]

10. kick

[JerseygirlCT]

14. I think all he can do is hurt McCain

and that's just fine by me.

[greguganus]

3. McCain should tap Clinton. n/t

[Tippy]

4. Come November....

McCain could be gone or he will pick Barr as his VP, if Hillary is the candidate, McCain/Barr or Barr and someone else. Why do you think Rush asked his listeners to vote for clinton in the primaries. Republicans have to rally their base without them they are toast. Who headed the Impeachment of Clinton? Bob Barr. Who do Republicans hate the most the Clintons. I am smelling somethig rotten in this election

[Thrill]

5. A motivated and excited black vote in a state like GA

is the Republicans worst nightmare.

[yardwork]

12. That's right. And that motivated black vote is teamed up with a motivated white progressive vote.

Obama generates enthusiasm like I've never seen in my lifetime. I believe that he will win the election even without a third-party run to split the Republicans. Barr's run would be the death knell for the Republicans this fall. Oh yes! Sweet.

[mmonk]

6. I am very happy Barr is running.

[jpljr77]

7. I don't know about 15% in Georgia for Barr

But then, Obama wouldn't probably need that much.

Georgia went 58-41 for Bush in 2004. If Barr can snatch 5-8%, that -- coupled with overall dissatisfaction with Republicans in general -- could push that red total below 50%, thus putting it in play.

If Obama's campaign pumps resources into Georgia, he could pick up 15 electoral votes in the Deep South. Unthinkable, huh?

[Dawgs]

8. Obama will win Georgia easily. There are many libertarians here because of the fairtax and Boortz.

The rest of the state has been moving to the left, and many of the Republicans I've spoken with do NOT like McCain.

[Perky]

9. I would not go that far.

But clearly there is a migration to the middle.

Interesting anecdote in Perry. Sam Nunn is adored across the spectrum therm My Mom is good friends with Sam Nunn. When He endorsed Obama.. the loons on the righ were publicly say how much they respect Sam but when they spoke off the record they think Sam hjad gone around the bend (did they reallly think he would endorse Hillary? In Georgia?) Well it turns out..SAm has been a quiet advisor to CObama for a while and there is some tidbits that e is up a role an Obama administration. He does not want to move to Washington but he might be part of a not so private kitchen cabinet announced prior to the electio that would allow Obama to flash defense credentials and gravitas without committing the Veep slot to a hawk.

[yardwork]

11. Obama and Barr put the South in play as a Democratic bloc this fall.

If Barr persists in his third party run, he will definitely draw off white conservative voters in the South and West. Combined with the overwhelming enthusiasm among African Americans and white progressives for Obama, we're looking at record-breaking Democratic turn-out in the South this fall, with dispirited Republicans split between a weak old man who "believes" in global warming and Barr.

I'm laughing out loud with glee!

[SaveAmerica]

13. Does this mean he released his medical records?

:shrug:

[Perky]

15. ???

:shrug:

[SaveAmerica]

16. To reveal the problem on his right flank - I guess it's not as funny as I thought it was...