Skirting Appalachia - The White Voters Hillary is winning

[RamboLiberal]

As Hillary Clinton's rout in West Virginia underscores, Appalachia is not Obama country. Of 410 counties in the region, which stretches from New York to Mississippi, Barack Obama has won only 48 (12 percent) so far. Of the counties he has lost, nearly 80 percent have been by a margin of more than 2 to 1. The region is whiter, poorer, older, more rural and less educated than the rest of the country, and seems to be voting like a bloc.

In fact, it hasn't been Democratic country for the last two presidential elections. Only 48 of the counties voted for John Kerry in 2004, down from 66 counties (or 16 percent) that went for Al Gore in 2000. The only states with counties in the region that have consistently voted Democratic in the last four such elections have been New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland.

Part of Clinton's win-while-losing argument is that her husband won more than half the region's states in both elections, and so can she. Unfortunately, she is not the Bill Clinton of 2008. Obama is, and his candidacy could energize enough young voters and African-Americans to shift the landscape of swing states.

Obama is unlikely to win the heart of Appalachia in the general election, but he may not need to if he can make up ground on its northern frontier. If he wins New York and Pennsylvania (he lost both in the primaries) and flip-flopping Ohio (another primary loss) he will be in good position.

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Eschewing Appalachia might be risky but by no means suicidal. Clinton said in her victory speech on Tuesday night that no Democrat has won the White House since 1916 without taking West Virginia. True. But they all could have won without it. The margins of victory in those races ranged from 23 to 515 electoral votes. West Virginia has five.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/17/opinion/17blow.html?hp



My guess is she wouldn't win these in the fall and neither will Obama so quit friggin' obsessing over them!

[doc03]

1. Why can't any democrat win WV?

Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-1 in WV, same thing with SE Ohio. I would say the biggest reasons are guns and the Democrats backing of Environmental extremists positions. This area depends on coal and heavy industry. I think the sex or the race of the candidate has a lot less to do with it than a lot of people think. I was surprised yesterday when I saw this weekend's USA paper, for the first time I saw a map of the states won in the primaries so far. It appears to me Hillary won most all the states that generally vote Democrat. Look at the ones Obama won I doubt he can win few of those in the GE and he will not win WV or Ohio.

[msongs]

2. "environmental extremist positions"...,like clean air and water? nt

[doc03]

3. I see you live in CA, you are probably not

aware of how much industry has done to clean up the environment in the last 30 some years. AEP has just completed environmental work on a plant near here it cost over $1 billion. People want electricity and we have coal and it can be burned clean. I work in a steel plant where I operate the environmental systems, the water we discharge into the Ohio river is much cleaner than when we took it out. I would guess in 1970 our plant discharged 200-300 tons of waste in the river every day and the river was dead, today it is the best fishing in the state. I think California has a much worse pollution problem today than we ever had. Now you will say we need to use solor and wind and not burn coal "it's too dirty". Say we don't burn our coal, China will be happy to buy it and burn it with no environmental laws. It's all the same air no matter where it's burnt, wouldn't we be better off burning it clean here.

[NashVegas]

4. And Nothing Decent to Replace Those Jobs With

The tech age is setting us up, individually, for a revolving door of debt just to keep up with the average standard of living.

Twenty years ago, your mechanic needed to know how to take an car apart. Now he's got to be able to do that AND have computer engineering skills, as well. What jobs are there in Appalachia that are going to help someone pay off that loan *and* a mortgage?

[doc03]

5. Well it's easy for someone in CA to say we have to use

solar and wind power. The problem is we are not blessed with enough sunshine or wind for it to be feasible to use here. Here we are we can't build a nuclear plant, we don't have solar or wind power. One thing we have is the Ohio river, there are a bunch of dams on the river and only one has a generator on it as far as I know. Why don't we build more? It would probably take a 5 year study buy the EPA and the Army Corp of Engineers to get an approval if ever. We have a company that is trying to build an amusement park here that will create at least a thousand jobs but they have been held up for around 3 years so far for the EPA studies and permission from the Corp. of Engineers. This is the Saudi Arabia of coal here and the extremists don't want us to use that either. Our other industries are steel, aluminum and chemicals and needless to say everyone wants those products but the environmental regulations and the WTO are taking those away too. What are we supposed to do start making moonshine again?

[Selatius]

15. You should tax coal companies the same way Alaska does it. In Alaska, everyone gets a dividend check

The profits generated by the oil companies is taxed in Alaska, and at the end of the year, the revenue is redistributed into the community in the form of checks to each taxpayer. This way, the wealth is shared, instead of going into the pockets of a few barons.

[Zachstar]

19. Sounds good for Alaska!

[anonymous171]

7. How can Hillary win? She's not Bill.

[joeybee12]

6. Mr. Blow's article blows...

...I raed this earlier and somehow he seems to think BO will magically win enough votes here. Can't see how, and he really doesn't explain how. I guess it's just another miracle of transcendence.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

8. OH YES SHE WILL WIN THEM IN THE FALL!

[anonymous171]

9. No she won't. Bill would have to go into hiding during the GE and she would be helpless there.

[doc03]

10. You are certainly right about Bill I think he

has done far more harm than good. I have a theory that subconsciously he actually wants her to lose thinking she may have a better legacy than him. At lest she will have enough brains to stay away from a Monica Lawinsky.

[Zachstar]

16. In ,my view Bill has just gone nuts.

[Zachstar]

17. You ok there ED?

[featherman]

11. The heartland of fundamentalist Christianity - not Dem friendly in the past

few elections. There isn't much that is going to change that (Rep v. Dem) map unless the Dems are able to overcome the GOP stranglehold on the fundie vote. The very definition of God, Gays, and Guns voters. A similar map of religious affiliation would be interesting.

On the plus side this is not a heavily populated area... maybe what? 5% of the US population not counting Pittsburgh and Knoxville metro areas that vote Dem anyway.

[roseBudd]

13. West Virginia has five electoral votes, I am underwhelmed

[cliffordu]

14. Yep - Leave them alone.

[MyNameGoesHere]

18. Well we thank you.

Of course we don't really like piss ants from Ohio anyway. Now go back into your sewer and stay underwhelmed.

[Zachstar]

12. Bingo!