Rasmussen daily graph for 5/17/08 - Obama down 2 (46), Clinton up 2 (44)

[DavidDvorkin]

WTF?








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0.)


Thanks to DUer Austinitis, we also have these nifty favorability graphs:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pLYPNryKcVU1Vud9WwRj7KQ&oid=7&output=image

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pLYPNryKcVU1Vud9WwRj7KQ&oid=8&output=image


Gallup: http://www.gallup.com


These Rasmussen graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[Zachstar]

1. Look at the graph it has been going in and out in and out.

It's pointless now. Obama has won.

What I am waiting on is about a month after Clinton exits to start seeing cleaner polls of Obama vs McCain.

[sfaprog]

2. Unfortunately all of these "favorability" graphs are meaningless next to a graph of delegate count

utterly meaningless

[anigbrowl]

28. consider the source.

[The Ghost]

3. How long ago did Rasmussen say they would stop these polls? Idiots.

[SoonerPride]

4. That's what I thought.

The race is over.

[rodeodance]

9. gee, maybe they realized the primary season was still on?

[DavidDvorkin]

11. They haven't yet said when they're going to stop

[Goodnevil]

5. Why all the Rasmussen polls on this forum?

I rarely see Zogby or Gallup. Bias? Do you all know something that I do not? Very possible might I add.

[jefferson_dem]

6. Rasmussen and Gallup are the only one that do daily tracking.

Trust me. There's nothing conspiratorial about it.

[Goodnevil]

8. You understand my paranoia though

Some organizations tend to pick the polling orgs that favor their cause. Not that this one does, mind you. Twice bitten and all that.

[DavidDvorkin]

12. When I started posting these, Rasmussen was the only one doing daily polling

That was many months ago. Then Gallup started doing it. They're the only ones, as far as I know.

Gallup posts their results in graphical form, but Rasmussen never did, which is why I do if for them. But I do get any thanks? They never write, they never call ...

[Goodnevil]

14. Well, I thank you

I live off of poll data as much as I live off of my cranberry scones and liberal lattes.

[DemGa]

7. Very good!

[rodeodance]

10. Good work Hillary

[DearAbby]

13. I thought Rasmussen was goint to stop their daily polls

between Obama and Clinton, since there is no way in hell Clinton can overtake Obama's lead.

[highplainsdem]

15. More evidence of how close this is.

[qazplm]

16. and yet

close doesnt count for much in elections, you have to actually win, and Obama is clearly going to.

[highplainsdem]

17. It counts if Obama needs Hillary and her supporters to win the GE.

I believe he does. I think that if he is the nominee and he doesn't choose her to be VP, we're much more likely to lose this fall.

I see some Obama supporters say that Clinton can't be allowed on the ticket because that would negate Obama's "message of change" -- but at the same time I see Obama supporters suggesting people like Sam Nunn. If people think Sam Nunn sends a message of change, but Hillary doesn't, what message do you think that sends to Hillary supporters?

I see some Obama supporters say that Obama needs a woman VP -- just anyone but Hillary. What message do you think that sends to Hillary's supporters? This is tokenism and condescension -- it says, "Any woman will do, no one can tell the difference, and who cares about the strong politician who's made this such a close race when none of the other candidates could."

As I've pointed out elsewhere here, if the situation were reversed and Hillary were slightly ahead, she'd have to be insane to risk alienating Obama supporters by acting as though another black or multiracial pick as VP would automatically guarantee she'd get his supporters. She isn't that foolish, and I'm surprised Obama supporters expect him to be. He's often shown himself to be a very pragmatic politician who isn't as progressive as many of his followers believe him to be. And when this has been pointed out, his supporters will often argue that his decisions that didn't look exactly idealistic were okay because they helped him in the political arena. Now many of his supporters don't want him to consider the unity ticket and political coalition that's his best chance of being elected in November. Pragmatic political decisions are okay with those supporters...unless they include choosing Hillary as VP. Again, what message do you think that sends to her supporters?

I believe that whether he has the sense and strength to ask Clinton to be VP will be the first real test of whether he can unite the party.

This has always been about the GE, after all. We've had entirely too many Democratic nominees who lost the GE.

[my3boyz]

18. Sympathy because the big bad men are trying to push her out! nt

[anonymous171]

19. This is why delegates determine the nominee, because polls are erratic

[TwilightGardener]

20. It doesn't matter. If pollsters kept asking Republicans if they'd rather

have McCain or Huckabee or Romney, I'd bet you'd see fluctuations there depending on the news cycle or whatever. When you keep giving people a choice, people will still MAKE a choice--most folks who supported someone aren't going to abandon their support just because that person isn't going to win, at least not in a poll, where it's just an opinion and not a real vote. If Hillary was the presumed nominee, and a pollster asked me if I wanted Hillary or Obama, I'd say Obama, even if it was pretty much over for him. Thus, Hillary's support in polls is pretty stable, and so is Obama's. But when you take away the choice, people come to accept it.

[gabeana]

21. Sorry to break it to the Hill supporters

Obama opens up 9 point lead in Gallup so much for Ras

Gallup Daily: Obama Opens Up 51% to 42% Lead

[flpoljunkie]

22. Indeed! Obama opens up 9 point lead--51% with 42%, after strong Friday night polling!

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107326/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Opens-51-42-Lead.aspx



PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama has reopened a significant lead over Hillary Clinton among national Democrats and now leads by a 51% to 42% margin, according to Gallup Poll Daily tracking from May 14-16.

Obama's current nine percentage point lead is based on a strong showing for the Illinois senator in Gallup's Friday night interviewing. For the past few days, news coverage of Election 2008 has been dominated by the back and forth between Obama and the presumptive Republican nominee John McCain regarding various comments and positions on dealing with Iran and Hamas in the Middle East, and attempts by Obama to underscore the link between McCain and President Bush.

Also implicit in this news coverage has been the assumption that Obama will be the Democratic nominee, with much less news coverage of Clinton -- despite the fact that she continues to campaign against Obama as Tuesday's primary voting in Kentucky and Oregon approaches. Some news accounts suggest that Obama may "declare victory" after the voting next Tuesday.

Both Obama's strong attacks on McCain and the Bush administration and the fact that Clinton has in some ways been shoved aside in news coverage of the campaign may have contributed to Obama's strong performance among Democrats in Gallup Poll Daily tracking on Friday night. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 2, 2008, click here.)

Meanwhile, the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking data on the national election, from May 12-16, finds McCain remaining slightly ahead of Obama, 47% to 44%, among registered voters, while Clinton -- despite the widespread assumption that she will not be the Democratic nominee -- is doing better than Obama against McCain, with a slight 2-point advantage over the Arizona senator, 47% to 45%. -- Frank Newport

[highplainsdem]

24. And Gallup's national election data: Clinton would beat McCain, Obama would lose to him

Meanwhile, the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking data on the national election, from May 12-16, finds McCain remaining slightly ahead of Obama, 47% to 44%, among registered voters, while Clinton -- despite the widespread assumption that she will not be the Democratic nominee -- is doing better than Obama against McCain, with a slight 2-point advantage over the Arizona senator, 47% to 45%.

Thanks for including that information, too!

[gabeana]

25. why should I

It looks like Hillary's not going to be facing McCain
nice job of trying to change the subject

[DavidDvorkin]

23. Gallup usually doesn't vary the way Rasmussen does

[DavidDvorkin]

26. Kick, for old time's sake

[JPZenger]

27. I got one of these calls last night

I answered this Rasmussan poll last night. It is an electronic phone call that you answer by pushing buttons on your phone. I'm sure most people simply hang up when they hear it is an electronic message. I only answered it because I recognized the Rasmussan name, or else I would have hung up.

That also asked about favorability/unfavorability ratings for Bush, McCain, Obama and Hillary.