A couple things that give me hope for November

[lsusteel]

First: the breakdown of the numbers in Texas. Obama trails Mccain 48-43. Obama ties Mccain among independents but only draws 69% of self-identified Democrats. Clinton trails Mccain 49-43 while drawing 82% of Democrats but losing by 17% among independents.

The party will coalesce around the nominee (if history is any indication) and Obama's numbers should steadily go up among Dems. If it reaches anywhere close to where Hillary is polling and everything else stays the same, he will win Texas.

I expect similar things to happen nationwide. Obama's poll numbers are going to steadily rise in virtually every state as long as he maintains his current standing with independents.

This is why polls showing Hillary outperforming Obama right now are useless. There is still bitterness between the supporters of the different candidates and polls seem show it's more on the part of Hillary supporters than Obama supporters. That will die down somewhat and I think it's reasonable to expect Obama's Democratic support to go up 8-10% in every state. Of course, there will be vindictive voters who hold onto their grudge and vote against Obama just because he beat Hillary, but I think at least 10% of that outstanding 31% (in Texas) will be smart enough to realize that any Democrat is better than McBush.

I also think it's fair to note the turnout in each parties primaries (even while they were both still competitive). Democratic turnout absolutely dwarfed Republican turnout. If Mccain is polling better among 1700 registered voters but more Democratic supporters show up, the poll will be way off. This may be a major x factor in this election.

In South Carolina, for example, 529,771 people voted in the Dem primary versus 441,870 for Republicans (and this is in a red state, remember).

In California, 4,196,387 voted in the Dem primary versus 2,393,406 in the Republican primary. If you assume 100% of people who voted in the Dem primary vote for Obama in the general and same for Mccain, that's a 63.7/32.3 advantage for Obama in Cali and 54.5/45.5 advantage in South Carolina. Of course, it won't work out that way, but it's interesting to note.

In 2000:
573,000 republicans turned out in South Carolina.
2,847,921 republicans vs 2,654,114 dems turned out in Cali

What does this all mean?

1. Polls mean nothing at the moment, particularly for Obama (the Democratic base will rally; more are rallied behind Clinton at the moment, but when she officially drops, they'll slowly line up behind Obama)

2. Far more states are in play for Democrats than are typically in play. This includes states like Georgia, Texas, Colorado, Virginia and NC. Of those 5, I think our best shot is at flipping Virginia and/or Texas. Texas last went Democratic in 1976, but has been pretty close through the 90s. Clinton lost by less than 5 in 1996 and less than 4 in 1992. It's not a stretch to think that Obama can put Texas in play, particularly with someone like Richardson as his VP or a moderate/conservative Dem who can attract Republican support like Webb, Strickland, or Bayh.

3. Buckle up! It'll be a fun ride.

[Arugula Latte]

1. Also, with Obama, Virginia and Colorado are in play.

He'll probably get New Mexico (although it was stolen last time).

[lsusteel]

3. Yeah, forgot VA and CO

Meant to include them in the write up. Added to the OP. Thanks!

[lligrd]

2. And, The More People Get To Know Obama

the better they like him. He really does grow on you.

[lsusteel]

4. Definitely true

Just as long as no more skeletons come out...

[lligrd]

5. They Weren't Even His Skeletons nt

[FrenchieCat]

6. Yes, I agree,

and made that point here.... http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_frenchie_080517_how_in_the_general_e.htm

[lligrd]

7. Nice Article FrenchieCat

Loved the picture and bio too. Harvard huh? Maybe we have the first female President in training.

[FrenchieCat]

8. and my youngest is currently interning for Barbara Lee

so I have a possible future 2fer Presidents in one household! LOL!

Thanks! :hi:

[lligrd]

9. Wow, Cool

Great job! :toast:

[lsusteel]

10. Another poll that gives me hope for November

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6026729&mesg_id=6026729

Obama is down 1 with only 65% of the Democratic base.

The base will coalesce (it almost always does) - I'm guessing at least 10% of the outstanding 35%. That's enough to give Obama a victory.

The further we get from this hard fought primary, the more the bitterness among Hillary supporters will subside and the more Obama's poll numbers will go up.

Any state where Obama is within 7% or so is a definitely winnable state.

[ErinBerin84]

11. The pubs are spin spin spinning, and it won't help them

Mark Halperin was just on CNN spewing disingenuous crap about Obama's "problems" with the white vote, and David Gergen (who had just made some fair points about problems that an Obama candidacy had with certain demographics) shot him THE dirtiest look I've ever seen him give anyone, and said "I think we have to provide some balance. Those pictures from the Oregon rally yesterday, it was all white faces in the crowd" (though Mark had just said "Oregon won't save Obama!" or something weird).