FiveThirtyEight.com: Both Dems are Slight Favorites

[BurtWorm]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/todays-polls-518.html



For the first time since we began tracking our results in early March, both Democrats are now slight favorites in their prospective races against John McCain.

The cheery news for the Democrats is in Minnesota, where a new Star Tribune poll has Barack Obama leading John McCain by 13 points, and Hillary Clinton leading him by 9. This continues a pattern in which traditionally blue states have begun to turn bluer. The Democrats, and particularly Barack Obama, might be able to get away without a serious investment of resources in states like Minnesota, Washington and New Jersey.

The other poll out today is from Nebraska, where Rasmussen has John McCain 11 points ahead of Barack Obama and 23 points ahead of Hillary Clinton. Although Nebraska hadn't been polled since February, that's about where our regression model had figured it was at.

Nebraska is one of two states (Maine is the other) to split some of its electoral votes by Congressional District. In 2004, John Kerry ran 11 points better in NE-2 (Omaha) than he did in the state as a whole, and 6 points better in NE-1 (Eastern Nebraska) than in the state as a whole. Meanwhile, he ran 18 points worse in NE-3 (Western Nebraska).

What this implies is that if Obama is about 10 points down in Nebraska overall, NE-2 in Omaha should be considered a toss-up, whereas NE-1 may be competitive. There are definitely scenarios where this is relevant. For example, if Obama wins Kerry states + Iowa + Colorado -- one of his more plausible electoral combinations -- he would be sitting on 268 electoral votes. Winning NE-2 in Omaha would get him to 269 electoral votes, at which point the tie would probably be broken in his favor by the incoming House of Representatives. We account for any and all such scenarios in our simulations.

[Lucky 13]

1. So he's SLIGHTLY BETTER against John McCain than Hillary?

Hmm. Interesting.

[mohc]

7. It depends on how you choose to read the results

Obama is doing better in aggregate Electoral and popular vote totals, but does not win as often as Clinton. The likely cause for this phenomenon is that in the scenarios where Clinton loses she is dropping one of her "big states" like Ohio or Florida and it brings down her average more than the Obama losses which are probably caused by losing a state like Nevada or New Mexico with fewer electoral votes.

[Lucky 13]

8. It all sounds like a bunch a bullshit to me.

They are makin' it up. All of it. You mean to tell me someone can predict the future? You can tell me now, in MAY, which of 2 primary candidates will score 0.5% better against the Republican in November? NEITHER of whom has debated or been "vetted" in the general? And this is based on what? POLLING? Why? Cause THAT'S so accurate? Rates of people changing their minds? Whether "old and feeble" will beat "young and black" with the "last-minute white working class voter"?

It is all a bunch of bullshit and I am not buying it for one fucking second.

And polling has nothing to do with anything. That's not what democracy is about. If Zell Miller were polling better against McCain should we nominate him? No. It has to do with many factors, not the least of which is actual voters casting actual votes.

We voted and Barack Obama, according to DNC Primary rules, has won more delegates than Hillary Clinton and is therefore our nominee. Now we roll the dice. He has a very good chance to win. And just because some people doubt his chances, doesn't mean they get to change the rules or our nominee.

[mohc]

9. It does not matter if its bullshit or not

Even if we were to accept these numbers as indisputable truth, the differences are negligible. If Obama and Clinton were identical candidates otherwise, but Clinton had a 1% greater chance of being elected, she would have an extremely marginal electability argument. But they are two very different candidates, and the electability argument just does not work when the differences are so small but the possible benefits of one candidate over the other are so much greater.

[OzarkDem]

2. Obama loses to McCain in electoral college vote - still

and the GOP hasn't even laid a glove on him yet.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May19.html

[BurtWorm]

4. As does Hillary. But not by much.

Plenty of time to erase the margin and turn it around. Even after this disastrous primary season.

[OzarkDem]

5. No, she's winning

[BurtWorm]

6. The difference between them is almost negligible from a macro perspective

at this point, according to those numbers. It's when you get up close that you begin to see the differences (like Hillary's apparent strengths in Ohio and Florida and weaknesses almost everywhere else). They each have different strengths and different weaknesses. It's no wonder they're locked in this struggle.

[onehandle]

3. Whoever the nominee is we're gonna need every vote we can get.

That's what I see here.

God save us from the idiots.