THE MATH Daily Widget – Tuesday, May 20 – Wigand +0.07

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH Daily Widget – Tuesday, May 20 – Wigand +0.07








The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information


Sources:
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
RCP Average

Yesterday’s Widget
Past editions of THE MATH





My projections for Oregon and Kentucky:

Oregon, Obama wins by 14
Pledged Delegates:
Obama – 30
Clinton – 22

Kentucky, Clinton wins by 32
Pledged Delegates:
Obama – 18
Clinton – 33

Total for day – Clinton +7

[phrigndumass]

1. Duck! Look out for the rapidly sinking widget!

It drops like an anvil on Wile E. Coyote's head. meep meep!

:kick:

[Scurrilous]

2. K & R

:thumbsup:

[Kukesa]

3. Kick for Professor Phrig. n/t

[phrigndumass]

9. Yer killin' me (lol)

:dunce: :blush: :loveya:

[dchill]

4. Kicking.

:kick:

[Aloha Spirit]

5. This doesn't change the fact that Pelosi has a 0.001% shot at the White House ;-)

[phrigndumass]

8. LOL!

I wonder if we should track her numbers as well? :rofl:

[Aloha Spirit]

10. Don't you worry, I'm on it.

[mod mom]

6. Phrigndumass, I'm sure you've heard this before but .....

:yourock: !!!! Thank you for your efforts!

[phrigndumass]

7. Thank YOU for turning me on to poblano last week

You rock harder! :headbang:

Hope you saw my acknowledgment to you at the bottom of this thread:
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass/49

:hi:

[mod mom]

19. Glad to. I hope folks here will step away from the computer & get involved in VOTE FOR CHANGE

and understand they can be a significant part of the Obama strategy to build the Democratic base through voter registration. All 50n states are participating! Here's info for anyone interested:

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/vfchome

[dbmk]

11. I like the concept, Phrig

Can you delve a little deeper into how you weigh the Intrade numbers in on the different "types" of states? (You might have stated so already and me missed it)

Or am understanding correctly that you only use Intrade numbers to wiegh the swing states (as determined by you and gc)?

[phrigndumass]

12. Intrade for the indicator states (swing) and polls for the rest

It takes the poll bias completely out of the picture for the "swing" (indicator) states, and places these states in the hands of the people (Intrade), and then combines it with the rest of the states according to the current polls.

I'm also tracking a separate index internally with a variable list of indicator states, or the states that fall within the margin of error in the polls. Not sure how that one will pan out yet, as I've only been tracking it for a week. Grantcart and I have tested the index with these fixed 12 states for a few weeks now, and it's a solid one, imho.

If you want to download the spreadsheets and play along, send me a PM and I'll link you up!

:hi:

[dbmk]

15. Was just about to ask! :)

Gimme!

Actually I am downloading Visual Studio Express atm, and will look into building a small app to get the Intrade numbers. I assume you are doing that by hand atm?

[phrigndumass]

17. By hand, on the spreadsheets

btw, I program databases, too! lol ... but I always work up the spreadsheets first to give me a logical flow. I would be willing to bet that you come up with a killer app!

I'll send you a PM with the ss's

[dbmk]

16. Suggestion

Couldn't the table with the swing states in your OP use a column to show how many EVs pr. the odds we are talking about in each state?

[phrigndumass]

18. Good idea ... I could abbreviate the name of the state and squeeze in the EVs

Doing that now ...

[IndyOp]

13. 538.com has Clinton winning Kentucky only by 19 points...

though he admits he isn't as confident as he was about his Indiana or North Carolina projections.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/kentucky-projection-clinton-by-19.html


That having been said thanks for the kick in the butt -- I have 3.5 more hours to call KENTUCKY.

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

14. Nice! I can't wait to see how that pans out for him. He's really good.

Thanks for what you're doing!

:hi:

[FedoraLV]

20. Yay, math! /nt