SUSA PA Poll: Obama 48, McCain 40

[MadBadger]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=162d4baa-59af-4ec5-9d9b-eb6e658e86c5


They do a bunch of other surveys with VP matchups that dont really mean anything since PA doesnt really know who people like Kathleen Sebelius are. Key fact, Obama loses the white vote 44-43.

[VolcanoJen]

1. But.... but....

... I thought Obama couldn't win states in the general that Clinton won in the primaries!!

Isn't that the whole of their argument?

[Fire_brand]

6. And it's always been a dumb argument

It's like they say in boxing: "Styles make fights." Not only are Obama v. Clinton and Obama v. McCain two entirely different matchups, the primaries reflect only a fraction of the electorate the candidates will face in the fall.

[skipos]

14. And don't forget, McCain will lose Utah because he lost the primary there

:eyes:

[featherman]

2. Exactly - the idea that a Dem could lose PA in the current political climate

is laughable. Same with MI and, IMO, same with OH.

[gabeana]

3. but he can't win Big states that Dems need!

Isn't SUSA the poll that Hill supporters live by:rofl:

[Occam Bandage]

4. That number will only get better as we turn our guns on Grampa Warnut instead of each other.

[VolcanoJen]

9. Grampa Warnut!!

That's even better than my current favorite, "President Bomb-Bomb" !!!!

[ErinBerin84]

5. haha, just read this on Huffington post, seems appropriate.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-j-elisberg/the-great-barack-obama-de_b_102651.html

[Cali_Democrat]

7. Somebody is going to be very angry with these numbers

That poster from the Garden State.

[jefferson_dem]

8. Good news.

Obama/Edwards runs really strong. Same as we saw in NM from SUSA, where Rendell is a "no go".

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bc4b7825-1ea9-4cf6-be2e-bbeb0f7c2d5f

As you say, it's still so early. Pennsylvanians are more likely to think Sebelius is a communicable disease than the governor of KS and "short lister" for Obama.

[speedoo]

10. I love the Obama - McCain matchup.

McCain's a bad candidate (not as bad as the other rethugs, but still bad) and Obama represents so many things that McCain is not: change, anti-war, intelligence, energy, ability to speak coherently and persuasively, leadership.

I smell a big win in November.

[Robbins]

13. PA

Obama wins women and he narrowly wins men! In fact Mccain only beats Obama by 1 among white men.
Obama wins big amoung Hispanics(putting an end to the hispanics will vote for Mccain over Obama
arguement)and even 28 percent of Pro Life voters would vote for Obama(Obama gets 60 percent of Pro
Choice voters although why 33 percent of Pro Chocie Voters would vote for Mccain defrys logic) and Obama does well with Moderate voters.

[mohc]

11. This poll looks good, but I one note of concern

I really have never been worried about Obama's ability to win the female vote, or even do well among whites, in the GE because among Democrats his support has always been strong in these groups. Even if he might trail Clinton in a particular demographic group, he has steadily picked up support across the board and usually those voters are stating a preference for Clinton and not a rejection of Obama. The new Gallup poll out shows Obama leading Clinton across the board demographically, with the exception of voters over 65, and in particular older females. Obama is doing horribly against McCain in PA among voters 65+, and this seems to be the area where Obama's weak primary performance is transferring over to the general. Truly, the white working class voter is not Obama's problem, it is older voters. Kerry won a narrow majority of voters 65 and older against Bush and had a narrower lead overall compared to what this poll shows for Obama. I guess some of this might be older white voters not being as comfortable with Obama, but typically the "kitchen table" type issues of social security and medicare have always made older voters a strong demographic for Democrats.

[MadBadger]

12. He is only down 9 among older voters, so what seems to be the problem?

[mohc]

16. I guess I want the have my cake and eat it too...

If Obama can maintain traditional Democratic leads among older voters AND have the large outpouring of younger voters he is bringing along, then he would basically be unbeatable. The traditional weak point for Democrats have been the voters in middle age groups, 40-65, while doing relatively well among those over 65 and strongly with those under 40. Obama seems to be running stronger in the middle age groups, while still not leading, and winning by large margins with younger voters. If Obama can get the over 65 vote closer to what it typically is, the Republicans are not going to have a chance.

[democrattotheend]

15. Third PA poll since the primary that shows Obama leading by at least 8

That makes me feel pretty good about it, at least for now. It also weakens Clinton's argument that her primary victory in PA means she is more likely to win there. She does lead by bigger margins in PA in most of the polls, but 7-9 points is good enough for me.