New PA and NM Polls Reveal Obama/Edwards To Be Strongest Dem Ticket & Obama/Sebelius To Be Weakest.

[malik flavors]

Survey USA just released two new polls out of PA and NM, and in the polls they did head to head matchups of Obama Vs. McCain with different VPs. The polls give us a look at what Obama's strongest and weakest tickets might be. The results show Obama/Edwards to be a very strong ticket and Obama/Sebelius to be a fairly weak ticket. His second strongest ticket is Obama/Rendell and second weakest option is Obama/Hagel. Unfortunately there was no Obama/Clark polling

PA Results:

McCain 40%
Obama 48%

McCain / Huckabee 40%
Obama / Edwards 50%

McCain / Huckabee 45%
Obama / Sebelius 42%

McCain / Huckabee 40%
Obama / Rendell 47%

McCain / Huckabee 42%
Obama / Hagel 40%


McCain / Romney 37%
Obama / Edwards 52%

McCain / Romney 41%
Obama / Sebelius 40%


McCain / Romney 39%
Obama / Rendell 48%


McCain / Romney 41%
Obama / Hagel 42%


McCain / Pawlenty 35%
Obama / Edwards 52%

McCain / Pawlenty 38%
Obama / Sebelius 41%

McCain / Pawlenty 37%
Obama / Rendell 49%

McCain / Pawlenty 36%
Obama / Hagel 42%

McCain / Lieberman 38%
Obama / Edwards 50%

McCain / Lieberman 41%
Obama / Sebelius 42%

McCain / Lieberman 39%
Obama / Rendell 48%

McCain / Lieberman 41%
Obama / Hagel 40%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=162d4baa-59af-4ec5-9d9b-eb6e658e86c5

NM Results:

McCain 44%
Obama 44%

McCain / Huckabee 44%
Obama / Edwards 47%

McCain / Huckabee 48%
Obama / Sebelius 38%

McCain / Huckabee 48%
Obama / Rendell 36%

McCain / Huckabee 50%
Obama / Hagel 33%

McCain / Romney 42%
Obama / Edwards 48%

McCain / Romney 47%
Obama / Sebelius 35%

McCain / Romney 45%
Obama / Rendell 36%

McCain / Romney 47%
Obama / Hagel 36%

McCain / Pawlenty 38%
Obama / Edwards 47%

McCain / Pawlenty 43%
Obama / Sebelius 36%

McCain / Pawlenty 41%
Obama / Rendell 37%

McCain / Pawlenty 42%
Obama / Hagel 36%

McCain / Lieberman 41%
Obama / Edwards 47%

McCain / Lieberman 44%
Obama / Sebelius 35%

McCain / Lieberman 43%
Obama / Rendell 36%

McCain / Lieberman 44%
Obama / Hagel 35%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bc4b7825-1ea9-4cf6-be2e-bbeb0f7c2d5f

[LSparkle]

1. Obama/Edwards (or Edwards/Obama) has been my dream ticket all year

I'm not giving up hope!

[PoliticalAmazon]

12. Mine, too! Edwards would be such an asset as VP for Obama. n/t

[FARAFIELD]

29. I supported Edwards before OBAMA

I just wonder why he would want to do it, besides being the one person that can really help OBAMA win votes (sorry Hilbots).

[RainDog]

2. Why isn't Richardson on there?

[Cali_Democrat]

3. It sucks because I really like Sebelius

This country just isn't ready for an AA male and a woman on the same ticket.

Same goes for Richardson and his hispanic background. I absolutely love him, but the country just isn't ready for a black and a hispanic on the same ticket.

It's a shame, but it's reality folks. Obama will have to pick a white male.

[cali]

8. You might consider that most people polled don't even know who

she is.

[Cali_Democrat]

25. Even if they did know her....

would the ticket be successful in November? I have my doubts. I wish America could look beyond race and gender, but it's just not possible. The country is just too immature.

[cali]

28. I'll trust Obama and his team on this

but that line makes me just as disgusted now as when JE supporters used it about Obama and Clinton.

[gateley]

21. I'm in agreement with you --

we would be trying to break TWO glass ceilings at once.

I've said Obama needs a white guy to appeal to the masses who may have concerns about a woman or an AA as president.

[Ian David]

4. They didn't even look at Barack Oabama / Margaret Cho. Crummy poll. n/t

[PM7nj]

5. His male support plummets w/ Sebelius on the ticket.

That is very sad. It could just be that she is unknown, or it could be ACTUAL sexism. I think another poll (by someone else) will need to be taken to see if this is consistent though.

[JaneQPublic]

6. I would like to see the figures for Obama/Clark or /Graham

I don't see Edwards making another VP run.

It was interesting to see, though, that Rendell wasn't has helpful to Obama in PA as Edwards. It proves what I've been hearing from some friends in PA: that Eddie isn't that well liked by everyone there.

[gcomeau]

7. Meh.

Nobody in Pennsylvania or New Mexico really knows Sebelius yet except the political junkies. Might as well ask them "Obama/Random name you don't recognize"

Of course it comes in weak under those conditions... which wouldn't hold after she was thrown into the national spotlight as Obama's running mate. I wouldn't put much stock in it.

[SteppingRazor]

9. Also, no Obama/Richardson, which certainly would have colored the NM results...

if not the PA ones.

On edit: Also, I think Sebelius' poor showing is likely to be more a result of lack of name recognition than anything else. Of those choices, Edwards is certainly one of the most recognizable, if not the most.


On double edit: The most surprising result of the poll, IMO, is that Obama/Edwards does better than Obama/Rendell in PA. Kinda weird.

[jsamuel]

10. Geez, based on that, Obama might want to get Edwards to go back on those "No's"

[backscatter712]

11. It's too early for these polls to mean much of anything.

Among other reasons, most people will say "Sebelius who?" when someone drops her name.

People know Edwards and like him, but Sebilius is a relative unknown.

[ErinBerin84]

13. Oh god.

I hate talk about Rendell for VP.

[Warren DeMontague]

14. I wonder how Obama/Feingold would stack up.

Hopefully, at the very least, this will put an end to all this Chuck Hagel bullshit.

[Barack_America]

15. I wish they would swap out Rendell for Richardson in that poll.

And I was actually struck by how poorly the Obama/Hagel ticket does, considering I assume that's a name that most people are familiar with. Seems like people just aren't crazy about that ticket.

[cascadiance]

41. I was asking myself the same question. It would be interesting to see how that would do in NM...

I've been weighing whether I'd like to see an Obama/Edwards or a Obama/Richardson ticket. Now if Obama/Edwards were to still beat Obama/Richardson in New Mexico, then I'd be sold on Obama/Edwards as my choice. I was thinking more about Richardson as a strategic choice than a sentimental one to get western and hispanic votes vs. McCain, but Edwards beating him with Obama would nullify that for me, and Edwards would be more my sentimental choice.

Any chance we might have Gore apply?

[VolcanoJen]

16. Name recognition.

No matter who Obama selects as his running mate, I'm sure the roll-out will be as superb as the 2004 Kerry/Edwards introduction was, and once America gets to know the VP candidate, those polls will move in Obama's favor big-time. :-)

[Beregond2]

17. Wow, that's strange.

What do people have against Sebelius? I can see her not doing as well as the others due to name recognition, but to actually put Obama in a losing position against McCain?

One thing though: notice that Obama and any other VP still kick McCains ass in these "swing states." So much for Hillary's arguement that he can't win with white working class voters.

[gateley]

18. Probably because doesn't have broad name recognition.

Our problem here on DU, when we name who we'd like to see as VP, is that we KNOW who these people are, their voting records, their histories.
We keep picking who we LIKE, when those choices may not be the best to influence voters "out there".

That being said, :7, my current fave for VP would be Gov. Brian Schweitzer from Montana. I think when people hear him speak and learn of him, he would be a great asset to the ticket.

[OzarkDem]

19. and Clinton is still stronger than Obama against McCain

[mckara]

30. But NOT Among Democrats!

Thusly, Hillary finds herself in a bit of a pickle.

[Occam Bandage]

20. At the moment, nobody has any idea who Sebelius is, and I doubt most people

have much of a clue who Rendell, Hagel, or Pawlenty are, except perhaps a vague notion of their current office and state.

[nsd]

23. In Pennsylvania they know who Rendell is.

So it's strange that even there helps less than Edwards.

[jsamuel]

26. People have been misunderstanding how much support Edwards has in the party.

He is well liked by both Clinton and Obama supporters. If either one didn't run he would have been polling much closer to 50% himself.

[Occam Bandage]

27. If either Clinton or Obama had not run, Edwards could have won.

Obama was able to out-"fresh-faced change" him, though, and Clinton was able to out-"solutions" him, so all he could do was try the Angry Populist tack. Had either Clinton or Obama left him an opening, he'd have done just fine.

[Phoonzang]

24. My thoughts exactly.

No one has heard of Sebelius. I have to wonder if there's time for people to get to know her though...

[mystieus]

31. That's just a name recognition problem. The inverse seems to work in Edwards' favor.

[Occam Bandage]

32. I agree. It's the same reason Edwards did so well in head-to-heads before he dropped.

He's got great name recognition, but I don't think his support is at all solid. He's at his ceiling, while people like Sebelius and Pawlenty are at their floors.

[woolldog]

22. Yikes!

It's scary how poorly Sebelius does. I'm not in favor of a VP you need to spend valuable time "introducing" to the American people. We'll ahve our hands full with Obama as a fairly new and unknown candidate. He needs to have someone well known and established standing with him.

Not really an Edwards fan, but yeah he'd be light years ahead of Sebelius.

Other interesting thing to note is how limited Rendell's appeal appears to be outside of PA.

[george_maniakes]

33. im not surprised by the strength of edwards....

but i am surprised by the weakness of hagel. I thought a republican on the ticket would be popular. guess not. Ah well, edwards seems like he means well.

[lsusteel]

34. I want to see polls with Obama/Bloomberg or Obama/Strickland

My hunch tells me one of those will be the ticket.

[malik flavors]

36. No chance of an "elitist" Obama/Bloomberg ticket.

[democrattotheend]

35. That's because Edwards has greater name recognition right now

Most people probably have never even heard of Sebellius.

[MarjorieG]

37. Sebelius is more about the unknown, and some still wanting Edwards.

I don't think JE would be any stronger this time than last.

[stahbrett]

38. I hope he doesn't pick someone without excutive branch experience

No offense to Edwards, but there's only room on the ticket for one Senator, and that's going to be Obama. The other slot should be someone with executive branch experience (state level, such as a governor, or federal level as a cabinet member, etc.). Someone with high level military command experience (Wes Clark, for example) would also be a good move.

[nichomachus]

39. Meaningless polls -- what a waste ot time n/t

[AspenRose]

40. Would Edwards even WANT the VP spot?

:shrug:

[mrmx9]

42. Edwards known - Sibelius isn't

Again we have name recognition - most people don't know who the Governor of Kansas is.

Why no Obama/Webb or Obama/Strickland option. Its interesting though that putting Rendell on the ticket doesn't appear to help much in PA (and if not there then why bother)

[high density]

43. My goodness, why would we want a replay of that?

The guy sucks as a VP candidate, we already know that from Kerry/Edwards.

I guess we're back to those name recognition polls. Obama/Hagel?? WTF.

[crimsonblue]

44. Sebelius isn't likely to take a VP slot..

she can help the people of Kansas and the country better by running for Brownback's vacant senate seat in 2010. I would LOVE to see Kathleen as our senator.