THE MATH Daily Widget – Thursday, May 22 – Wigand +0.00 – Total -6.60

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH Daily Widget – Thursday, May 22 – Wigand +0.00 – Total -6.60








Yesterday’s Widget
Past editions of THE MATH

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

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TRACKING











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Sources:
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
RCP Average

[phrigndumass]

1. Indiana, Iowa and Michigan all took a dive since yesterday

while Ohio continues to track upward. FiveThirtyEight.com showed a lead for Obama yesterday, but McCain retakes the lead today. RCP Average shows an Obama uptick, while the Undecideds go above 10%. My own projection of electoral votes for Obama dropped 9 to 273 since yesterday.

[phrigndumass]

2. Virginia is polling stronger for McCain now

Virginia Commonwealth University released a poll showing McCain +8 in Virginia, with 20% undecided. A previous poll in Virginia had McCain at only +3.

Rasmussen's new Florida poll has McCain at +10, up from a previous poll of McCain +1.

However, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Iowa are all polling blue for Obama.

[phrigndumass]

3. And another poll shows Virginia swinging entirely the other way, lol

Obama +7 in Virginia (SUSA). This will definitely affect the Wigand Electoral Average tomorrow.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9901f8fc-034e-4a1d-ab36-f6e5c918614e

The SUSA poll shows only 9% undecided, as compared to VCU's 20% undecided. So, which is more accurate? Is it possible the people being polled trust SUSA more than VCU?

[myrna minx]

5. It appears that the numbers are a little erratic this week.

:shrug: I'll be interested to see what the numbers look like after the rules committee meets and after June 3rd, when hopefully Obama is full steam ahead as the nominee. Perhaps the long term of this exhausting primary season may be making undecideds and independents a bit skittish over the long haul. I think we can expect a spike when Obama becomes the official nominee and we can exhale. :hi:

[phrigndumass]

6. Exhale ... I hope!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

4. p.m. kick

:kick:

[CitizenLeft]

7. the polls are driving me batshit...

...but keep up the good work! :thumbsup:

[phrigndumass]

8. In two weeks hopefully ... our change candidate will see some changes in the polls

(hopefully)

Thanks CL!

:hi:

[mcctatas]

9. OK, I'm just gonna say it...

although this looks really interesting, I have no idea what it means (I got a D in stats, barely). Please, explain it to me like you would a 10 year old? Thanks much :hi:

[phrigndumass]

10. Happy to!

On the Electoral Votes side of the widget (left side), anything 270 and above is a win for Obama (270 electoral votes). On the Trading and Averages side of the widget (right side), anything 50.00 and above is a win for Obama (50 on a scale of 100).

It's very much in the middle right now, because of the primary fight.

I'll be tracking this here every day until November 4.

:hi:

[mcctatas]

11. Thank You...

I think I get it :wow:

:hi:

[RiverStone]

12. I'm glad to hear you say that....

OK, I'm as much a political junkie as most DUers - but I have no clue WTF this means. Just tell me it's good news for Obama! :hi:

And for those that get it --- thanks to all that post it!!

[phrigndumass]

13. :) ... see reply #10 to mcctatas ...

Tracking the measurements of a potential Obama win in November ... above 270 is a win for Obama for electoral votes, and above 50 is a win for Obama in trading.

:)

[RiverStone]

15. Cool - and ya know we look forward to your numbers...

When its truly US vs THEM this fall.

Thanks phrigndumass, even from those of us that are right brained! As in creative centric vs math centric.

[phrigndumass]

17. yw RiverStone!

What good is a math centric without a creative centric to compliment him/her? :)

:hi:

[mcctatas]

14. I have absolutely no problem looking like a dumbass...

glad I could help;)

[RiverStone]

16. Thanks!

Let me know if I can pay ya back sometime...

Don't mind putting on the dumbass outfit either :crazy: :hi: