US News: New Poll Finds Big Shift Toward Obama

[Doityourself]

Californians give Obama a significant edge over Clinton and McCain.

While there has been an epidemic of hand-wringing among Democratic political analysts over Obama's inability to win over low-income white voters in states like Kentucky and West Virginia, where Clinton has dominated recent primaries, California seems to be a different story. Obama leads McCain by a double-digit margin here among likely voters, no matter what their incomes. He enjoys a 55-to-35 percent lead among those who make less than $40,000 a year, including whites; a 55-to-36 percent lead among those who make between $40,000 and $80,000; and a 53-to-37 percent lead among those who make $80,000 or more.

"As the presidential campaign has moved further away from California, what's been taking place is solid support among Democrats and increasing support among independent voters," says Mark Baldassare, president of the Public Policy Institute of California, the nonpartisan group that released the poll, which surveyed more than 2,000 voters. "John McCain is certainly going to have his work cut out for him here."

Before it comes to that, the survey may offer a much-needed boost to the Obama campaign, which has faced questions—many of them from Clinton herself—about its candidate's general election chances after dramatic defeats in West Virginia and Kentucky. The new poll, Baldassare says, not only demonstrates how difficult it may be to pigeonhole white working-class voters, many of whom turned their backs on Obama in the South, but it also reveals how much voters' views can evolve once the acrimony of the primary season begins to fade. In California, at least, Latinos and low-income whites—two groups who strongly supported Clinton in the state's primary—have rallied behind their second choice in the months since February. "These numbers are particularly telling in a state that Clinton won easily," says Baldassare. "For Democrats who supported Clinton, time has passed, and looking at the general election, up against McCain, they are coming together."

http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/campaign-2008/2008/05/22/new-poll-finds-big-shift-toward-obama.html

[SpiralHawk]

1. No just to Obama, but away from republicon lies, corruption, malfeasance

Oh, and did I mention incompetence.

[Doityourself]

4. lmao tell us how you really feel

[Cha]

25. Exactly! As Obama says, too, it's not about him

or his opponents..it's about our Country.

[papau]

2. Usual media not understanding - of course most Clinton votes go to Obama-but w/o Hill VP many don't

and in close states (which is not CA) - THAT CAN COST DEMS THE STATE & PRESIDENCY

[WA98296]

7. WITH Hillary MANY will NOT. Many in this party despise her now, getting worse by the day

[Doityourself]

9. As you move away from the primaries & to the general and people get to know Obama as he campaigns

I believe he can win those close states without Clinton. Once the acrimony starts to subside and people are grappling with $6 per gallon gas prices and *(are reminded before the Iraq war it was $68 per barrel), have to deal with continually rising food prices, no chance of healthcare, etc., they will think twice before voting for a 3rd term of Bush...at least I have faith that they will.

I sincerely believe Barack can win without Hillary as the VP. In addition, she already said she will campaign her heart for whomever the nominee is..so are you doubting she can convince a large portion of supporters, to support Obama?

[OnionPatch]

33. But the Clinton argument was that only she could win the big blue states.

Now that's changed? And what about all the new black voters in the other states you mention? I think they will make up for the Clinton voters who won't vote for Obama.

[bdamomma]

3. yes, it is now time for us to rise up and take this country back.

[marions ghost]

5. California...

I still don't understand exactly how they went Clinton...

[Adelante]

16. It was the early voting, possibly

I've read of a lot of Californians who had early-voted Clinton and had changed their minds by the time of the primary date, but it was too late. It's why I'm not sure early voting is a good idea in primaries. By the GE, both candidates are as known as they're going to be, but not necessarily so in primary races.

[marions ghost]

18. have any idea of the early voting percentage in CA?

[Adelante]

20. I don't

I do remember Clinton supporters here on DU predicting that Obama couldn't win there because the percentage of early votes for Clinton was high.

[Greyskye]

17. You have to remember...

...it was still relatively early in the primaries. Clinton had the name recognition, and honestly, the Clinton's have been loved by California Democrats. Her actions in this campaign cycle have really turned a lot of people off, however. My wife is just sick about it - she has wanted Hillary for president for decades. Not any longer.

And don't forget that Edward's dropped out right before the CA primary. As we're a state which allows vote by mail, quite a few people had already voted for Edwards when he dropped out. I know I had. :(

[marions ghost]

22. thanks

not very good timing on Edwards part...he did exit pretty suddenly

Sorry to hear about your wife's experience. It's hard when you have a positive opinion of someone (anyone) and they reveal some characteristics you wish they didn't have. Esp these days in politics, when there is such a fervent wish for the Bu$h nightmare to be over--people have become very invested. Well at least your SO has a reasonable alternative in Obama at this point :)

I'm wondering how common this buyer's remorse is in CA...as you say, the primary was before the earth had been scorched...so those who voted Hillary should not feel but so guilty about it. It's not their fault that they tried to see the best and didn't see the worst. Hill and her campaign have proved unworthy of the trust placed in them and have taken advantage of those who sincerely supported her. It's better to see the truth at any point in this game. I'm just wondering how big a phenom this is and whether many are going through a change of heart. Thanks for your reply.

[Greyskye]

6. To the greatest w/ you from a proud Californian!

:kick: & R.

McLame/Jomentum '08!

[NJSecularist]

8. If California is Obama's best electability argument, we are screwed.

Of course Obama was going to win California.

But the election isn't decided in California.

[ingac70]

10. Obama will win Va...

CO, Iowa etc.....

[Doityourself]

11. I refer you to my post to Papau above

[qazplm]

13. I cant wait

to see what you type in February 09.

Ok yeah, Obama's president, but there is no way he can win in 2012!

[tishaLA]

28. that one

won't be here in February 09

[PoliticalAmazon]

15. California is one LARGE state, as is Florida, and Obama plans to win both...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6074203

[liberaldem4ever]

12. K&R There will be a huge shift to him when he is the official nominee

I think things will get better for him in time, especially when he campaigns against McCain. People are underestimating how much the country is sick of the tyranny of the Bush/McCain regime.

[Doityourself]

14. completely agree.

[me b zola]

19. K&R

:thumbsup:

[MadBadger]

21. Looks like in CA, less Clinton Supporters are DINO's than in Florida and Ohio

[gristy]

23. But how can that be? CLINTON WON CALIFORNIA!

:cry:

[anigbrowl]

29. I'd say California sort of regrets moving the primary up

Of course they had no way of knowing the contest would go on so long, and being in on Super Tuesday to swamp the results must have seemed like a good idea at the time. But what resulted was too much TV campaigning and too little retail, plus 'generic' status for California. If CA had come up late in the primary like it used to do, it would have been the state that administered a hammer blow to the loser. I suspect it'll be farther back next time, although chances are that Obama won't face serious opposition in 2012.

[Ichingcarpenter]

24. Gays and Lesbians move to Obama

Ready Or Not, LGBT Clinton Supporters Move Toward Obama
As many diehard LGBT Clinton fans conclude that Hillary's bid is over, about to be over, or should be over, they are making peace with an Obama nomination.

By Julie Bolcer

An Advocate.com exclusive posted May 20, 2008
Ready Or Not, LGBT Clinton Supporters Move Toward Obama

While the 2008 presidential election long ago deflated confidence in predictions, many observers agree that one thing seems reasonably clear now as the long, competitive Democratic primary season draws to a close: Hillary Clinton’s window is closing fast if it hasn’t already shut.

Obama is expected to grasp the majority of pledged delegates after today’s contests in Kentucky and Oregon and he has now taken a lead in support from the decisive superdelegates whom Clinton once dominated. Even if Clinton herself never says die, some LGBT backers are shifting their focus from whether she can still emerge victorious to when and how she might withdraw from the race.

The realization that Clinton could not win the nomination happened gradually for Cathy Renna, managing partner of Renna Communications in Washington, D.C. A long-term supporter who recalls the transformative, if imperfect, impact Bill Clinton exerted on gay rights in the early 90s, she also cites the former First Lady’s commitment to child welfare and women’s issues. But Renna invokes the pragmatic reality of the numbers as her reason for backing Obama now.

http://www.advocate.com/exclusive_detail_ektid54649.asp

[Blondiegrrl]

26. But ... but ... Hillary won California! Therefore Obama will not

be able to beat McCain in California! Don't you get it?

Clinton logic: almost as funny as Clinton math. :rofl:

[stillcool]

27. what's wrong with those poor white people?

Didn't anyone tell them that they won't vote for Obama? Hillary needs to get out there ASAP, and tell them the way it is. Maybe take Pat Buchanan with her.

[SaveAmerica]

30. Come together, right now...

over me...

"For Democrats who supported Clinton, time has passed, and looking at the general election, up against McCain, they are coming together."

[Frank Booth]

31. This makes me glad to live here.

[Jed Dilligan]

32. Baldassare rocks, PPIC is too legit to quit!

I trust him more than any national pollster.

[Douglas Carpenter]

34. now this is a post that needs all the kicks and recommends in the world!!

[Douglas Carpenter]

35. Rasmussen Markets data gives Sen. Obama a 62.9% chance of winning in November

(results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead."

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up."

link:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll