THE MATH (Primary Edition) – Friday, May 23 – After Oregon and Kentucky

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH (Primary Edition) – Friday, May 23 – After Oregon and Kentucky

1:30 a.m. Eastern Time (US)

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,025.0 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 3,167.0 of 3,253.0 – 97.4%

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,106.0 (including Florida and Michigan)
Pledged Delegates in – 3,324.0 of 3,410.0 – 97.5%

Two sections below:
1. Status Quo
2. Including Florida and Michigan

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1. STATUS QUO

THE MAGIC NUMBER

Here’s what we have after considering the information in the Polls section below and adding well-known add-on superdelegates for both candidates:

Senator Obama’s Magic Number – 7 of 161 remaining superdelegates needed, or 4.3%
Senator Clinton’s Magic Number – 172 of 161 remaining superdelegates needed, or 106.8%

The Huckabee Index – -11 (or -6.8% of remaining superdelegates needed)

The “Huckabee Index” is the number of any combination of superdelegates and convention/caucus delegates that the Obama campaign needs (or the Clinton campaign loses) to make it mathematically impossible for the Clinton campaign to win the nomination, based on current delegate count and polls for upcoming contests. (Disclaimer: This is meant to poke fun at Mike Huckabee, not Hillary Clinton)











TOTAL DELEGATES

Estimated Total Delegates as of May 23:
Barack Obama – 1,965 (60 short)
Hillary Clinton – 1,782 (243 short)
Remaining Total Delegates – 292

SUPERDELEGATES

Superdelegates as of May 23:
Barack Obama – 308.5
Hillary Clinton – 281.5
Remaining Superdelegates – 206

PLEDGED DELEGATES

Estimated Pledged Delegates as of May 23:
Barack Obama – 1,656.5 (30 above HALF) <--- Pelosi Club number reached
Hillary Clinton – 1,500.5 (126 short of HALF)
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 86

OVERALL CONTESTS WON: Barack Obama – 33; Hillary Clinton – 19

PRIMARIES WON: Barack Obama – 18; Hillary Clinton – 16

CAUCUSES WON: Barack Obama – 14; Hillary Clinton – 3

BLUE AND RED STATES WON:
Barack Obama – 12 Blue, 17 Red
Hillary Clinton – 7 Blue, 11 Red

HYBRID “POPULAR” VOTE (for informational purposes only)

Disclaimer: The purpose of votes in a primary election cycle is to select delegates. Superdelegates may use a hybrid total of votes as a method of choosing which candidate to endorse, but doing so doesn’t justify the universal existence of such a method.

Status Quo, as of May 23:
Barack Obama – 16,919,250 (+542,716)
Hillary Clinton – 16,376,534

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2. INCLUDING FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN

From the DNC Rulebook:

20.C.1.a. Violation of timing: In the event the Delegate Selection Plan of a state party provides or permits a meeting, caucus, convention or primary which constitutes the first determining stage in the presidential nominating process to be held prior to or after the dates for the state as provided in Rule 11 of these rules, or in the event a state holds such a meeting, caucus, convention or primary prior to or after such dates, the number of pledged delegates elected in each category allocated to the state pursuant to the Call for the National Convention shall be reduced by fifty (50%) percent, and the number of alternates shall also be reduced by fifty (50%) percent. In addition, none of the members of the Democratic National Committee and no other unpledged delegate allocated pursuant to Rule 8.A. from that state shall be permitted to vote as members of the state’s delegation. In determining the actual number of delegates or alternates by which the state’s delegation is to be reduced, any fraction below .5 shall be rounded down to the nearest whole number, and any fraction of .5 or greater shall be rounded up to the next nearest whole number.

Summary of this rule: In order to certify compliance, the pledged delegate totals from Florida and Michigan will be halved and rounded. Unpledged (super) delegates shall not be permitted to vote as members of their state’s delegation. Unpledged (add-on) delegates will be treated as pledged delegates and halved.

Assumed outcome based on this rule (pending DNC-RBC decision on May 31):
Clinton – 90 pledged delegates, 0 superdelegates
Obama – 61 pledged delegates, 0 superdelegates
Edwards – 6 pledged delegates, 0 superdelegates

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,106.0 (including Florida and Michigan)
Pledged Delegates in – 3,324.0 of 3,410.0 – 97.5%

THE MAGIC NUMBER

Here’s what we have after considering the information in the Polls section below and adding well-known add-on superdelegates for both candidates:

Senator Obama’s Magic Number – 9 of 166 remaining superdelegates needed, or 5.4%
Senator Clinton’s Magic Number – 174 of 166 remaining superdelegates needed, or 104.8%

The Huckabee Index – -8 (or -4.8% of remaining superdelegates needed)

The “Huckabee Index” is the number of any combination of superdelegates and convention/caucus delegates that the Obama campaign needs (or the Clinton campaign loses) to make it mathematically impossible for the Clinton campaign to win the nomination, based on current delegate count and polls for upcoming contests. (Disclaimer: This is meant to poke fun at Mike Huckabee, not Hillary Clinton)











TOTAL DELEGATES

Estimated Total Delegates as of May 23 (w/FL,MI):
Barack Obama – 2,026 (80 short)
Hillary Clinton – 1,872 (234 short)
Remaining Total Delegates – 297

SUPERDELEGATES

Superdelegates as of May 23 (w/FL,MI):
Barack Obama – 308.5
Hillary Clinton – 281.5
Remaining Superdelegates – 211

PLEDGED DELEGATES

Estimated Pledged Delegates as of May 23 (w/FL,MI):
Barack Obama – 1,759.5 (54.5 above HALF) <--- Pelosi Club number reached
Hillary Clinton – 1,634.5 (70.5 short of HALF)
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 86

HYBRID “POPULAR” VOTE (for informational purposes only)

Disclaimer: The purpose of votes in a primary election cycle is to select delegates. Superdelegates may use a hybrid total of votes as a method of choosing which candidate to endorse, but doing so doesn’t justify the universal existence of such a method.

Status Quo, as of May 23:
Barack Obama – 16,919,250 (+542,716)
Hillary Clinton – 16,376,534

With Florida only added, as of May 23:
Barack Obama – 17,495,464 (+247,944)
Hillary Clinton – 17,247.520

With Florida and Michigan added, as of May 23*:
Barack Obama – 17,733,632 (+157,803)
Hillary Clinton – 17,575,829
*Uncommitted to Obama

With Florida and Michigan added, as of May 23*:
Barack Obama – 16,495,464
Hillary Clinton – 17,575,829 (+80,365)
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

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Latest Polls:
Puerto Rico
South Dakota

More Links:

Official Delegate Selection Rules for the 2008 Democratic National Convention

Link to my journal … Click on the link to view all past editions of THE MATH:
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass

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Please keep this thread bumped for easier access in GDP.



.

[phrigndumass]

1. Granting permission to use this information here on DU and on internet

I am granting permission for everyone to use any of this information, in whole or in part, in other threads here on DU, and anywhere on the internet.

- phrigndumass

[FrenchieCat]

2. Thank you kindly!

Boy......she needs to sit down.

She's really, really done.

[phrigndumass]

3. Amazing, isn't it?

There are only very slight differences between the two scenarios.

Obama needs 60 delegates, versus Obama needs 80 delegates.

Obama's magic number is 7, versus Obama's magic number is 9.

And if either Florida or Michigan are split 50/50 between the two candidates, it gets even closer for Obama.

:hi:

[mod mom]

17. may I repeat:

:yourock:

[chknltl]

4. bumped

[dascientist]

5. K&R

[phrigndumass]

13. Welcome to DU, dascientist

:hi:

[dbmk]

6. K&R

It is perhaps worth noting, before anyone comes in with erronous comments on the rules and how they were applied, that 20.C.5 and 6 gives the R&BC the right to impose further sanctions.

[phrigndumass]

8. Good point, dbmk

Originally, the results from the two states were removed from the process, pending resolution. The resolution phase begins May 31.

The Rules & Bylaws Committee isn't required to certify compliance for these two states at all, although I imagine they will do so with penalties. If each state's status remains in non-compliance, nothing from the two states will count until Convention in August. However, in order to certify compliance, the maximum delegates counted for each state will be half of the original.

Allowing the states to remain in non-compliance will result in a floor fight at the Convention, so I do believe they want this to be resolved quickly.

:hi:

[RiverStone]

7. Question: Do you think the rules committee will...

...vote to change rule 20.C.1.a. on May 31st?

I sure as hell hope not, but if they did - talk about throwing a curve ball into your good math!


peace~:)

[phrigndumass]

9. The process timeline for setting the rules is long past

If they officially change any rule at this meeting, it won't become effective until the next election cycle. They can't grandfather a rule change into a process that has already begun.

Besides, if they did, the party would implode. :nuke:

:hi:

[SlipperySlope]

10. You seem to think that MATH is an objective process...

You seem to think that math is an objective process that can reveal an answer with some basis in reality.

Not at all. Math is simply one more argument that only serves a purpose so long as it advances Hillary's campaign. Should it fail to do so, then it is no longer math, and no longer useful.

[phrigndumass]

11. LOL

I have a feeling she'd debate the laws of gravity if she thought it would serve some purpose for her.

:thumbsup:

[Douglas Carpenter]

12. K&R

[Phoebe Loosinhouse]

14. I hope this stays Kicked for quite awhile.

And all Obama Rep need to whip it out and use the statistics while talking to the delusional Terry MacAuliffe.

Actually, they need to whip it out and use with every talking head to keeps pushing the fact that there is some remote chance for Hillary to win.

[phrigndumass]

15. Kick :)

:kick:

[Phoebe Loosinhouse]

16. Kicking again for your great work

Even though today's events have eclipsed this, it's still highly relevant.

She will be/would be/should/be exiting from a race she LOST.

LOST. LOST. LOST.

On her own. her own. her own.

No matter how . . . you . . . . count . . . . it.