Have Dems ever won w/ a candidate who started his race polling behind the GOPer?

[OzarkDem]

Most recent Dem candidates begin a presidential campaign ahead of their GOP opponent, then fight to keep from losing that always-shrinking advantage before November. The wider the margin of approval over the GOP candidate, the more "cushion" the Dem candidate has to withstand the withering negative attacks from the news media and the GOP.

Can someone explain how fielding a candidate who is "less popular" than their GOP candidate is going to work? Has there ever been a time in Dem history when a Dem candidate (not an incumbent) has begun a campaign behind the GOP'er and been able to win?

[Drunken Irishman]

1. The last Democratic president was behind Bush and Perot this time in '92.

[Bicoastal]

4. Oh, snap.

[habitual]

6. woooops

'I retract the question, DON'T answer it!!!'

nice!

[LowerManhattanite]

81. Oopsie, indeed!

LOL!

[Carrieyazel]

240. Bill Clinton was the greatest politician of the last generation.

BO has never won a contested election against the other side.

[Labors of Hercules]

321. What a nice way to contradict yourself.

First you say Bill Clinton was the "Greatest politician of the last generation" to argue that Barack isn't able to do what he did...

But, Barack has just WON AGAINST HIM!!! Hello. Do you get it? Barack has DEFEATED the "greatest politician of the last generation" to win the Democratic Nomination.

So, given that fact, do you not see how ridiculous BOTH of those statements are?

[BeatleBoot]

405. Ah, Pronoun Trouble.

She not he

[Labors of Hercules]

439. *raised eyebrow*

Do you honestly believe The Clintons have been functioning as separate political entities in this campaign?

If so, you may feel free on edit to add: "and his wife."

[blm]

322. Baloney - Clinton had the benefit of IranContra and BCCI's ongoing investigations thanks to a few

honest Dems in DC who wouldn't stop pummeling GHWBush vigorously throughout his term. THAT led to Poppy Bush expecting impeachment if he won in 1992, as the BCCI report was to be released in Dec 1992 - he then ran the worst re-election campaign in modern history knowing that Jackson Stephens' boy in Arkansas would provide Poppy and his cronies all the protection they'd need throughout the 90s.


Just as Bush2 expected from Clinton2.

[Radio_Lady]

355. Change the OP. Have we ever had a white female candidate who was facing a black male candidate?

Throw away your polling and your history books! There is no precedent for this primary election. I guess we'll have to see. Psychics post here. We have the historical meeting on May 31st, more primaries, more addition and subtraction, and ultimately, a convention.

It is ALL making history.

Cordially,

Radio Lady in Oregon

(My high school debate topic in 1956 was:

"Should the United States abolish the Electoral College and elect the president and vice president directly?" I don't remember which side one, because that was so long ago!)

[hendo]

393. Clinton was the greatest?

Clinton wasn't the greatest politician of the last generation. Heck, he wasn't even the best democrat of the last generation. He ran against a split party not once, but twice.

By that reasoning you should say that Bush was the greatest politician of his generation. After all, the man was extremely unpopular after his first term and still won reelection. And, we all know that shrub isn't the best politician of his generation.

I'm sick of all the Clinton worship, be it Bill or Hillary. They have never cared about what was best for the party, only what was best for them. Not to mention that they are so short-sighted in their ambitions that they screw everything up in the long run.

[oxbow]

399. but Jr. is the best politician of this generation

He'd have to be to make people swallow all that shit for all these years. The title isn't worth shit after him

[hendo]

418. You do have a point. n/t

[maxomai2]

402. True

But Jim Ryan didn't exactly dismantle himself, either.

[Ken Burch]

454. He was beating the ORIGINAL Republican Senate candidate by 30 points

Before that candidate was forced out after taking his wife to the sex club. And that was a guy who'd been considered a tough candidate to start with.

The point is, it's too late to push Obama aside for HRC. She can never unite us again. It would have to cause unhealable wounds.

[anonymous171]

9. DING DING DING! We have a winner! nt

[OzarkDem]

14. That was an exceptional candidate

and Obama is no Bill Clinton. Not by a mile.

[Cali_Democrat]

15. Don't change the subject from your ridiculous assertion in your OP

You were wrong and now you look foolish.

[Name removed]

21. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[AllentownJake]

43. Telling someone they have rage issues

Than telling them to Go to Hell.

Project much :rofl:

You got owned. Try wikipedia before you post next time.

[Cali_Democrat]

79. Projection at its worst (nt)

[LowerManhattanite]

106. That WAS a bit much, wasn't it?

Looks like someone noticed.

[BlooInBloo]

25. Dammit! Where'd those pesky goalposts get to???

:rofl:

[Cali_Democrat]

76. ...

[BlooInBloo]

82. Oh there they are! Sigh - I just can't keep up!

[LowerManhattanite]

108. Outside the damn stadium, down three blocks, hang a right at the light...

...and in the parking lot of the Tast-D-Freez.

[yellowcanine]

317. You noticed that little two step goal post shift? I call it the "Gish gallop"

Affectionately named for Duane Gish, the ardent young earth creationist who would debate evolutionists. One of his favorite tactics was to change the subject when one of his assertions was shown to be false.

[SmokingJacket]

18. So your answer, when shown you're wrong, is "Oh, well, now it's different."

Not a great argument.

[OzarkDem]

26. Not at all

I'm making the point that Obama isn't in the same league as Bill Clinton.

So how do you plan to help Obama win? Make Bill Clinton his vice president? :rofl:

[Bodhi BloodWave]

31. I'd have to agree with you actually, they are not in the same league

Obama seems to have surpassed him

[OzarkDem]

40. By what measure?

Evidence only, no Obama dreaming.

[earthlover]

110. By what measure? How about this....

Bill Clinton goofed so much he was relegated to small towns and venues. Obama, on the other hand, speaks to crowds of 75,000 or so.

[OzarkDem]

113. I don't know about you

but I was old enough to work on his campaign in 1992. And you're wrong.

Obama has already picked up all the voters he can pick up. All the people who are too young to realize half of what he tells them is wrong are already supporting him. Those old enough to know he's lying aren't going to buy his sales pitch.

He can have those big rallies, but they aren't going to be enough to get him elected, sorry. His base isn't going to grow any larger than it is now, he has nowhere to go.

[earthlover]

127. Fine....I worked on McGovern's campaign in 72.

I suspect you are not older than me. Not physically.

[BlooInBloo]

129. Too easy to continue.

:rofl:

[earthlover]

133. Again, by what measure you asked, and now Clinton is relegated to small towns.

The Clinton campaign realized the detriment Bill was having to their campaign so they sent him to the small town circuit.

Nice that you could divert the attention away from my point.

[OzarkDem]

146. Got a link?

I worked for his campaign then and don't recall that.

[earthlover]

304. I was talking about BC's role in Hillary's campaign...

[K8-EEE]

286. Please, your crystal ball is clouded with bullshit

his momentum has just begun -- who are you to say it's not going anywhere? I'm so sick of the gloom and doom from this HillHeads, SHE LOST! She ran a rotten campaign and has become a charactature of herself while Obama has risen to the top. Deal!

[eagertolearn]

332. I've got news for you. Republicans are lining up to vote for Obama.

I live in a very consevative area and because of my volunteering for the Obama campaign republicans are coming out of the woodwork to talk to me about Obama! Plus there are a lot of Hillary supporters who are seeing the light. The other thing the GOP have against them are all the newly registered democrats. There will be many more voting for him in the GE.

[reflection]

54. I would argue

that Obama resonates with the voters much more powerfully than BC did. And BC was a great candidate back in the day.

[OzarkDem]

125. If that were true

he would have "closed the deal" by now. The Dem primary is still a tie. He hasn't even been able to convince a significant majority of Dem voters.

In spite of his PR campaign, he's a weaker candidate than Bill Clinton was in 1992.

[Cali_Democrat]

147. Bill Clinton didn't even close the deal until June

At least that's what Hillary says. ;-)

[OzarkDem]

157. Obama isn't going to close the deal

He's going to come out of the Convention with a divided party and about half of its popular vote, with the other half disliking him because he's spent so much time and energy insulting them and calling them racists.

He's going to need to pick up at least 43 million more votes before November - that's about 2.5 times more voters than he has now.

He's alienated most other voters by calling them bitter and racist. He's not a sincere sounding speaker and has little or no charm. He does well with people who like vague speakers who lecture and preach to them.

How is he going to triple the size of his base?

[LowerManhattanite]

169. Why don't you give us McCain's popular vote total...

...and tell us where he's gonna pick up what HE needs to win, hotshot?


Seein' as how you're the history n' math major and all. LOL!

[Cali_Democrat]

183. Hmmm.....

You are assuming that every single Hillary voter feels alienated and Obama has to work to get them to vote for him in November. That is a false assumption. You say...

"He's going to need to pick up at least 43 million more votes before November - that's about 2.5 times more voters than he has now."

If that's the case, then every single GE poll out right now should show him being absolutely buried by McCain. That's just not the case at all. Are people lying to the pollsters to spite Obama? There aren't even 43 million Hillary supports. Only about 17+ million voted for her in the primaries. Where are you getting this 43 million number from?

You obviously failed math and statistics. I can't believe you are saying he has to triple the size of his base. Do you know how foolish you sound?

[OzarkDem]

189. Sorry, but you need a math refresher

Here are some links for you...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107488/Gallup-Daily-Clinton-Maintains-Lead-Over-McCain.aspx

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2004

[Cali_Democrat]

199. Where are you getting this 43 million figure from?

:shrug:

Are you saying that every single Hillary supporter and many others feel alienated and won't vote for Obama as of now? That's quite an assumption. The Gallup poll you posted shows a 2 point spread between Obama and McCain. If every single Hillary supporter and others won't vote for Obama right now because they feel alienated, as you suggested, then why is it only a 2 point spread? It just doesn't make any sense.

[OzarkDem]

234. Pretty much so

Obama and his campaign have made such nasty divisive attacks on Clinton supporters, you've probably lost at least two thirds of them if not more. Check the exit polls. Live and learn Obama folks. You can't shit on people and expect them to like you.

[Cali_Democrat]

245. You still haven't answered my question

If Obama has lost every single Hillary supporter along with many other Democrats, then why is he up three in the Real Clear Politics poll average against McCain? The only poll that shows McCain leading Obama is Gallup.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/


Something isn't adding up. How can he be leading McCain in the current polls when he's lost all those voters as you claim?

Also, you know damn well it's ridiculous to say that only Obama needs to get 43 million more voters. All your doing is taking his vote total in the primary and subtracting it from Kerry's total presidential votes in 2004.

Using that logic McCain will need to attract many more voters because McCain only has 4.8 million votes in the primaries. Same story with Hillary.

Your argument is collapsing before your eyes. I feel sorry for you. Today was not a good day for you on GDP as you were humiliated.

[OzarkDem]

248. I have answered it

Obama isn't winning against McCain, in fact he's lost ground over the last few weeks. Deal with it.

[GoesTo11]

293. If Obama loses to McCain

"It will serve us right for being so mean to Hill. Then we'll wish we'd been nicer to her."

Hey, OzarkRepub, stop being a crybaby.

If you and your friends vote for McCain, it will be your fault that he's president.

[Alexander]

413. Badly. Just like all your other laughable answers in this thread.

"Obama needs 43 million votes!"

"Give me someone other than Bill Clinton and John F. Kennedy! They won't count!"

"McCain doesn't need to earn as many votes as Obama!"

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Don't quit your day job. It's clear you weren't cut out for this.

[muryan]

Obama lost 3/5 of the clinton supporters in WV/KY

I won't lose any sleep over the prospect of losing the vote of Betty "I've had enough of Hussein" Fatass.

[OzarkDem]

266. Keep it up

and don't whine to us when your guy loses.

Better he have the support of the unwashed, sexist skateboarder crowd.

[muryan]

268. I've met more logical infants

The fact that you continually make posts like this boils down to two things, either you have a mental defect and cant recognize it when people continually prove you wrong. Or you are so starved for any attention that you make these inflammatory posts knowing that people will be forced to call you on your bullshit, and you just relish the idea of it. Either way, its a sad day to be you.

[Robyn66]

379. Will it be all worth it when women lose the right to choose because

Hillary's supporters were in a snit and didn't support the Democratic nominee? I doubt Hillary would even want that.

[OzarkDem]

385. That's Obama's problem

if his supporters think he's the great savior, they had better get to work helping him pick up some votes.

[chervilant]

403. Bwahahahahahahahahaha!!!

Too funny, my dear OzarkDem! BTW, I grew up in Newton County. Hope to get back there before the economy blows.

[chervilant]

404. PS

Please know that I haven't finished reading all the responses you've netted--it's just that this one hits a chord because of an article I'm about to complete.

I appreciate your courage--starting this thread AND replying to the many shrill Obama supporters so eager to villify Clinton. I have asked many times: how do Obama supporters represent "the change we hope to see in this world" by attacking and denigrating Clinton supporters? Why hasn't Obama asked his supporters to avoid wallowing in the muck and mire with other puerile attackers (including those in the Clinton camp)? How childish do Obama supporters sound when they assert "he/she did it first/ worst!"???

I never get answers, as you can well imagine...just further verbal abuse.

[Robyn66]

409. So you think Hillary would want women to lose the right to choose?

I don't think that is correct. I can't imagine Hillary wanting to see young women dying in allys from botched abortions.

[LowerManhattanite]

205. Let the bed-sh*t continue...where's McCain gonna get the extra millions he's...

...gonna need?

McCain's primary pop vote total? 4,834,584 (Romney's oddly enough is 4,111,430). Looks like he's got even more to make up, without the luxury of getting a majority in NY or California to nab the electoral votes.

4,834,584!

OMG! He'd have to make up around 8x that just to be competitive with Kerry's numbers by our “A Beautiful Mind” OP's standards, eh?

GOP pop vote primary totals here: http://flaminggrasshopper.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/rep.htm

This is too damned easy. :)

[Cali_Democrat]

206. LOL!!

That logic just makes your head spin :crazy:

[LowerManhattanite]

226. Kickin' for the bad math! n/t :)

[Gman]

361. You obviously don't know about

the Bradley Effect

So you're obviously not the person to go to about analyzing statistics.

[Cali_Democrat]

436. The Bradley Effect has proven to be a moot point

Just look at states like Wisconsin, Oregon, Iowa, and Washington where he outperformed the polls with whites.

Even if some people are lying to the pollsters as you claim, Ozark's argument is bullshit because Ozark claims Obama has lost nearly all Hillary supporters and many other Dems. Therefore he should be getting buried even if some folks are lying to the pollsters.

[Gman]

438. I'm constantly amazed the way Obamabots love to claim something is "proven"

by their own subjective/opinionated/pull-it-out-of-their-butt methods. You have absolutely NO evidence to prove anything moot about the Bradley effect. If professional pollers (read: high math level statisticians) aren't sure about the Bradley Effect and Obama, you sure as hell can't pull it out of your butt that it's "proven" moot.

Where do you people come up with this shit?

[Cali_Democrat]

444. Obamabots eh?

You reek of desperation. I know you're bitterly disappointed about Queen Hillary, but please try to refrain from ad-hominem attacks. Thanks.

The truth is that there is no real scientific proof that the Bradley Effect exists.There are only instances where a black candidate underperformed relative to the polls during an election.

Obama has outperformed the polls in many white states like Wisconsin, Iowa and Oregon. Your argument fails.

[Gman]

445. My God, it's hopeless

they'll even argue with and deny empirical evidence if the issue has anything to do with Obama.

[whopis01]

315. So who are we going to go with then?

The person who you claim isn't going to close the deal or the person who is trailing him in the primary?

You are correct - Obama hasn't closed the deal. But neither has Clinton.

[Radio_Lady]

351. Here we go again! Nothing wrong with a united party. IMHO, it's our best option.

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/Radio_Lady/238

((Watch out, folks... here come the slashers...))

White dove of peace MAY ACTUALLY fly here sometime.

[nachoproblem]

373. So Clinton is a better candidate because she's in second place to that?

[eagertolearn]

396. "He does better with people who like vague speakers and who preach to them"

It's my understanding that he is attracting the educated crowd who usually like an intellegent analysis of the issue's and according to the polls don't go to church on a regular basis.

[Ken Burch]

455. You know HRC couldn't close the deal any better.

And you'd have to admit that Obama's done nothing to deserve the slagging your campaign's given him since March. You knew your candidate was beaten then and you kept attacking when you knew she would never be popular again. Why did your side HAVE to drag us down?

[earthlover]

306. According to Bill Clinton's Memoirs, the race was effectively over in April

But who is gonna believe something that contradicts a Clinton?

[bvar22]

246. Actually, Obama has beaten both Bill and Hillary for the 2008 nomination.

Obama is a stronger and better campaigner than the Clintons.
Case closed.

[OzarkDem]

247. Talking about the GE

Sorry you misread.

[bvar22]

256. Campaign 2008 was a heads up race....

...between the Clintons and Obama.
Obama won walking away.

Where was Clinton the Great Campaigner you fondly recall?

[SwampG8r]

294. i love the way they troll out

the im talkning about the GE bullshit
the GE?
how many have voted in that?
just a round number please
here ill help you because you ar obviously not all here
the number of votes cast in the GE so far is
and im gonna type thi reeeeeaaaaaaallllll slow so you can focus
that number?
it is
zero
hows that for an accurate count of the GE so far?

[suzie]

326. Did we miss that part where Bill Clinton won a majority

of the popular vote in 1992? Oh no, he didn't, did he?

Seems like comparing apples and spaceships to say that the most popular politician of a generation couldn't win without a 3rd party candidate to siphon off the other party's votes.

[clydefrand]

407. Aren't we going to have a third party candidate this fall?

Bob Barr, the Libertairian?

[suzie]

412. And your point would be?

[OzarkDem]

424. As stated before

Obama is no Bill Clinton. He doesn't have the gravitas, personality or leadership skills that appeal to a broad base of voters.

[9119495]

374. I bet Obama will get more than 43% of the vote...better than BC in '92

[elzenmahn]

380. Closing the deal...

...and if Hillary were such the strong candidate you think she is, why didn't SHE close the deal in February?

Did she somehow think that the nomination was simply going to "come to her"? Did she think she was entitled to it?

Hillary Clinton is not entitled to ANYTHING.

[anigbrowl]

235. Sorry, you bit it, you bought it.

The fact that you didn't anticipate (or check) the answer to your silly question is your own damn fault. You're right, though, that Obama isn't in Bill Clinton's league. I think Obama's better.

[OzarkDem]

251. As always you make no sense

but are full of hate.

[eridani]

289. Correct. Clinton didn't have 1.5 million small donors

Nor a really organized support base for GOTV.

[bigbrother05]

316. Yeah, seem to remember WJC raising $250M+ and drawing 75K+

Oops, my mistake. Obama has done pretty well running against both WJC and his wife. As someone else pointed out, Obama has created a new league to run in. These are false comparisons. WJC ran against different folks than Obama has, with a different strategy and different issues. It's like comparing fighters from different eras. It's all statistics and supposition, interesting, but not useful.

[yellowcanine]

319. That's your point now. It wasn't the point of the OP. Don't change the subject.

You were smacked down fair and square. Why not just admit and move on? This goal post shifting is downright unseemly.

[book_worm]

327. See you have no scruples

Proven wrong and still can't admit it.

[Joe the Revelator]

152. That is this poster's MO

He/she always gets proven wrong, and then always tries to change his/her original statement.

[OzarkDem]

165. Yeah, this poster asks hard questions

that's why Obamabots love to attack.

Bring it. Answer the question macho man. Where is Obama going to get his 43 million with half his own party disliking him and the personality of a televangelist?

[LowerManhattanite]

182. How about you deal with your bed-sh*t of an OP...

...after all, as folks like you love to crow “Stick to the OP!”, fess up that you f*cked up, and maybe THEN you can spin an equally lame OP on this latest termite-eaten hobby horse.

[DerekJ]

24. Please tell me your cheeks were going all red, fumes were coming out of your (ears?!) when you

posted that.

:rofl:

I wonder if you ever posted something noteworthy, or factual.

[OzarkDem]

30. No, I actually knew it

Obama isn't in the same league as Clinton. I'm not surprised you are ignorant of that fact, however.

[DerekJ]

37. You like being ridiculed don't you. You must get a kick out of it. When you are wrong stop digging.

[OzarkDem]

45. ..

[DerekJ]

49. ...

[mrreowwr_kittty]

122. That had to have been the bitterest smilie I've ever seen!

:scared:

[rateyes]

346. Exactly how old are you?

:shrug:

[SwampG8r]

296. its tiring trying to explain facts to a brick wall

i always imagine someone who would post unmitigated crap for their masochistic self disgust
to be in moms basement dressed like this

i think hillary must attract this sort of fetishist and they are thrilled to continue the lying and cheating because it lets them take more better beatings

[Warren DeMontague]

140. Wow. For someone who "knew it", you sure as shit didn't phrase your OP like you did.

Let's see, what did you write? "Have dems EVER won..."

No asterisk, nothing about "barring exceptional candidate Bill Clinton of course"

You knew it?

Bullshit.

[anigbrowl]

237. No you didn't LOL. OMG I gave up that schtick when I was like 8 or 9.

[bvar22]

254. And yet,

Obama defeated both Bill and Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination 2008.

If "Obama isn't in the same league as Clinton", then Obama must be in a better one.
Maybe Obama should have given the Clintons a head start just to make it fair?....

Oh wait, Hillary already had a huge headstart.

[FrenchieCat]

34. Barack Obama is no Bill Clinton? THANK GOD!

Now that would be scary. Hell, we'd be talking about Genifers and Paulas and dumb shit like 24/7 and being dogged out by the GOP to do their business.

Yes Lordie, thank God Barack Obama isn't Bill Clinton!

Hallelujah, thank the Lord and can I get an Amen!

[chascarrillo]

63. Bwahahaha! Rewriting the rules...

No surprise you're a Clinton supporter.

[graycem]

83. That's hilarious..

I see MANY similarities in their campaigns. Hillary should've taken more pointers from Bill. The true fact of the matter is, Hillary is no Bill Clinton, not by a mile.

[grantcart]

90. lol how about Carter, Kennedy and Truman lol

[OzarkDem]

99. Truman was an incumbent

(note the OP). Obama is no Kennedy. Carter may be a more apt comparison. Lucky to be a one term president.

[phrigndumass]

115. So was Lincoln in 1864 ... he was not the frontrunner until much later

Even though he was an incumbent.

The most apt comparison to Obama is Lincoln, imo.

Do you think Kennedy would have been a one-term president if he weren't killed?

[OzarkDem]

148. ROFL

No comment, just :rofl:

[Alexander]

298. Yeah, we're all laughing at your ignorance of history, too.

You wouldn't laugh so hard if you realized the joke is on you, and that you cannot factually argue with anything people are saying here.

[phrigndumass]

309. So that would be a "No" to Kennedy?

:wtf:

[grantcart]

126. You are so shameless there really is no amount of embarassment

no amount of rank desperate public humiliation on pure facts will cause you to blush.

You bring absolutely nothing to the table. You make your candidate look mentally retarded. You don't seem to have a grasp of reality and I think you are the bitterest person on these boards. I leave you with your wallowing and your crying about all of the excuses.

Here are the facts. Hillary started with all of the advantages 1) money 2) name recognition 3) 30 years of networking 4) a system that rigged the schedule to have a semi national primary that would play to her advantages 5) the prestige of the white house 6) she would be the first candidate in the largest demographic. She took all of those advantages and ran a terrible campaign.

In the last 8 months she convinced no statistically significant group of people to join her

None

Obama now needs only

49

delegates to be the nominee.

If Hillary gets everything her way on Saturday that number will go to

80

. He will get about 40 pledged delegates, 20 Edwards Delegates and 10 Pelosi Delegates needing only about 10 delegates.


They both split the pledged delegates and then she would need 230 of the remaining 240 delegates to win

[OzarkDem]

162. Can't answer the question, eh?

If you think Obama is the same quality candidate as Bill Clinton, how is he going to pick up an additonal 43 million voters when half the Dem party can't stand him?

[nadinbrzezinski]

197. I hate to point this out

but most people do NOT, I repeat this.... DO NOT... pay this much attention to politics

When the elections in november come around, and the choice is between four more years or.... Obama... most RATIONAL people will vote for Obama...

Why? He has a D behind his name

Most folks know the difference between a General Election and a Primary.

I have to wonder if the Clinton HARD CORE supporters get this at ALL?

By the way... MOST OF US RATIONAL FOLK know that this is now a General Election

This means you line up.

Here are your choices come November

Vote for the Democratic Party Nominee, regardless of who that person is... even if that is NOT your primary candidate

Vote for the Republican Candidate... McCain

Vote Third Party

Write in YOUR PRIMARY Candidate

Or STAY HOME

THose are your choices. It does not matter how much you stamp feet and make my cockatiel look a mature human being, and boy he does throw tanter tantrums. I wonder if HE should be the one registered to vote at this point!

JEEESSUUSS AGE, can't you guys get it? It is OVER.

The Math AIN'T there...

Time to put YOUR COUNTRY ahead of your primary candidate!

[OzarkDem]

236. Clap harder

[petepillow]

408. I've been reading this for a while and I'm really trying to give you the benefit of the doubt

like MAYBE you're legit, sincere, VALID, but...

What the hell are you talking about?

I will now continue this dramatic episode of DU Posters Gone Wild, and hope that somewhere in this post, in some way, OzarkDem will convince me that all this effort is genuine and intelligent and not the typical thick-skulled delusional one-track-minded unwavering-despite-actual-facts argument one might get from a devoted dubya defender.

Waaaaaaait, I get it! By arguing obtusely these "points" and "rebuttals" of yours, this is actually all just a plan to draw out lots of legitimate debunking of the standard Hillary, et. al, talking points. At least I hope so, 'cause otherwise I kind of feel bad for you...

Anyways, on with the show! Wheee!

[OzarkDem]

427. Welcome to DU

[petepillow]

429. Uh, Thanks! Been a member for nearly 4 years and lurker 2 years before that

but by not responding to posts as if this were instant messenger, as you seem to do, my post count is newbie-low.

But thanks for the welcome, and thanks for the hot thread. It's burnin up the charts!

[ecstatic]

338. Is it any wonder? This is the same behavior exhibited by the Clintons!

Thanks for adding quality information to this thread, but OD is not going to listen. "It" is all about disruption.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

93. Thank god for that.

Last thing we need is a candidate with a chronic infidelity problem.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

103. "Obama is no Bill Clinton.." Which is the very best reason to vote for him.

[OzarkDem]

158. You haven't answered the question

Tell us how he's going to pick up an additional 43 million voters when half the voters in his own party don't like him?

[Maine-ah]

187. now, that's where you're wrong.

you are assuming that everyone who currently supports HRC will not vote for him in the GE. In reality, he's probably going to get most of the democratic vote, and only a handfull are going to defect to the republicans.

Which is why we need to stop all the infighting going on around here. We need all the votes we can get to beat McSame. The longer this goes on, the longer he gets a free pass.

[Brundle_Fly]

285. you do realize bill clinton

didnt get 50% of the popular vote...

if you tally Perot the conservative, and GHWB the ( ahem ) other conservative, they totaled 57% of the vote...

Clinton got 43.3 % of the popular vote, in a two person race, he would not have won,... no if ands or buts.


IE, if bill clinton ran in 2004, with his numbers he would have lost against a landslide.

you think he is some kind of superhero, but the game simply worked and lined up in his favour.

[OzarkDem]

425. Even more reason to field the stronger candidate

The one that has more popular appeal to a broader base of voters.

[earthlover]

104. Aw, come on Ozark....you got reamed! Admit it graciously?

[OzarkDem]

111. Obama isn't Kennedy, he isn't Clinton

and he certainly isn't Truman or FDR.

He's gonna lose. Big time. Live with it.

[otohara]

124. Wishful Thinking?

are 17 million Hillary supporters hoping and praying he'll lose? 17 million voters will stay home to avenge Hillary, and make sure he loses. Is that what you're predicting?

[OzarkDem]

128. Obama needs 43 million more voters

just to reach the level at which Kerry lost in 2004.

How does he plan to pick up those votes. Since he can't close the deal in the Dem primary, he's an even weaker prospect in the GE.

He doesn't have strong support in the Hispanic community, he's already called most voters racist. He's not in a strong position for the GE.

[earthlover]

143. SOrry, Ozark....Obama has sealed the deal already. You just didn't notice.

[OzarkDem]

151. So what are you saying? He can't get the 43 million voters?

That you don't know how he's going to pick up 43 million more voters?

You do realize he has to run against McCain, don't you?

[earthlover]

305. Obama will get more than 43 million

He is expanding the electorate by appealing to moderates, young voters and independents. He also will get a higher turnout of AA voters (a demographic which has voted Democratic, but turnout has been low previously). Most of Hillary's supporters will vote for him in the end....how could they vote for someone who would take away choice by appointing maybe 3 more supreme court justices? Hillary will not throw away her political career by not supporting him either. I believe most of this talk about Hillary supporters not voting for Obama is posturing, just that. Electorally, Obama has a good chance to pick up CO, IA, NV, VA, NM, MO. He doesn't need FL or OH, whereas Hillary would (and I really think needing FL and OH to win is too risky).

[otohara]

144. You're Full of Shit

when did he call voters racists?

[OzarkDem]

168. Many times, beginning with Clinton in SC

and continuing on with women voters who support Clinton, then Pennsylvania voters, then WVa voters, then KY voters and so on and so on and so on.

[JackBeck]

156. And Kerry got 9.9 million votes in the primary.

Making this new magical cross-over math you have created from Primary to General even larger of a gap than the one Obama has to make up.

What can your point possibly be other than you are utterly scrambly at this point.

[OzarkDem]

170. Kerry had a record and experience

and hadn't alienated half the Dem voting base by calling them racists. Obama is an unknown quantity, no one knows much about him except that he is quick to accuse anyone who doesn't agree with him a racist.

In difficult economic times, people are much less likely to make a "leap of faith" and assume a candidate is a decent person when they have little background or experience.

[JackBeck]

242. You have absolutely no proof

that Obama alienated half the Democratic voting base. Not to mention, he never called the majority of them racists, nor is he quick to accuse anyone who doesn't agree with him a racist.

You also created some imaginary deficit between a Primary and the General election that no one uses as a metric.

[OzarkDem]

249. Check the exit polls

for responses of Clinton supporters - its been in the news a lot the last few weeks.

[JackBeck]

258. Exit polls also said Gore and Kerry won the Presidency.

Most Democrats have learned that their reliability isn't a safe bet when it comes to who actually takes the gold.

You still haven't shown where Obama has called those that disagree with him racist.

[Name removed]

263. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[JackBeck]

273. Your post, from beginning to end, is filled with "Opposite Land" conjecture.

Reminds me of when the Bushies called us on the Left the "reality based community". Like that was supposed to be an insult?

[LowerManhattanite]

278. This from the poster whose every point in this thread has been blown...

...out of the water like a six-foot marlin in a four-foot barrel.

This is low-rent Andy Kaufman performance art now.

[JackBeck]

282. And they keep reinventing their talking points.

This thread should be a case study in poor OP etiquette.

:pals:

[muryan]

261. Exit polls of WV/KY

do NOT represent the entire country.

[tired]

401. I dont know how he is going to do it

I am not him. Accept the fact that you are just pissed off because your candidate did not win and move on. You have been put in your place time and time again in this thread, yet you still want to sit at the grown up table. Act like one.


And the question for you is:

How is Hillary going to get 43 million votes?

...
...
...
Aint gonna happen, huh?

[SwampG8r]

297. so you are saying now

EVERY dem presidet since the great depression started behind?

[ecstatic]

339. Just say "he isn't white." That's obviously what you're trying

to get at with your repeated troll-like posts. But just because you're a bigot, doesn't mean everyone else is.

[hardtoport]

344. Sit down and put your head between your knees. You're hyperventilating.

You're rooting for the Democrat to lose? I'd be willing to bet there are quite a few soldiers in Iraq who are hoping you're wrong about your prognostications.

Wow, talk about falling for the cult of personality! So if she was to change her party association to Republican officially, I suppose you'd switch yours, too?

Luckily, you don't speak for all Hillary supporters. You only speak for the ones who spend far too much time online getting their feelings hurt and taking this WAY too personally. Instead of trying to form that circular firing squad that is far too prevalent in Democratic politics, why don't you work on registering voters so the DEMOCRATS win in November? If you say you don't want to because you want the party's nominee to lose, then I suggest you go sign up at John McCain's website, because John McCain's pathetic GOP ass is gonna need all the help it can get!

DEMOCRATS '08!!!

[Seabiscuit]

434. And much as he'd like to pretend he is, he isn't

the reincarnation of RFK, MLK, Rosa Parks, Cesar Chavez, Ghandi, or Jesus H. Christ either.

Elmer Gantry, maybe, but none of these other people.

[Doityourself]

105. Bill Clinton isn't even Bill Clinton..ask Monica..lol

[Drunken Irishman]

117. I think there are many here who believe Obama is an exceptional candidate.

You may not, but the fact he beat the Clinton machine, when no one really gave him a chance, is pretty remarkable. Obama's victory over Clinton in these primaries would be akin to Bradley knocking off Gore in the 2000 Democratic Primaries.

I expect Obama to beat McCain just like he beat Clinton and people like you will probably vanish, never admitting they were wrong.

[Occam Bandage]

131. LMAO. Beyond weak.

[RazBerryBeret]

154. but he IS

an exceptional candidate.

[Crunchy Frog]

193. Trust a Hillarrhoid to change the rules mid-game.

"That one doesn't count."

[Catherina]

210. That's precisely his first selling point. The distance makes it even better n/t

[grace0418]

218. Thank goodness that Barack Obama is not Bill Clinton. n/t

[billyoc]

233. So, you mean, except last time?

:rofl:

[stevietheman]

311. You're right. Obama is leagues above Bill Clinton, and will be the Democratic Reagan. n/t

n/t

[Frisbee]

342. At this point all I can say is...

THANK GOD FOR THAT!

[Radio_Lady]

348. Also, let's remember that Hillary is NOT Bill. On the other side, Michelle is NOT Barack.

:rofl:

[Grinchie]

362. "and Obama is no Bill Clinton. Not by a mile" -- Thank God!

Yeah, looking back at all the damage that has taken place to our country, a closer inspection reveals Bill Clinton putting the framework in place, by action or inaction.

It's kind of surprising that no Hillary supporters try to explain ADFA and the Rose Law Firm.

Nor do they bring up the Bombing of the World Trade Center on February 26th, 1993, a month after Bill Clinton was sworn in.

Nor do they bring up the amazing similarities of rewarding their cronies with Government Appointments, Like Mike Espy

Nor do they bring up the the way that Judicial branches were unable to indict certain people while Bill Clinton was Attorney General of Arkansas, and later Governor.

The Clintons are a Tainted bunch of DLC Republican lites -- Nothing more that puppets to be manipulated by the masters.

If that were not the case, they would be shamed and run out of town long ago.

DLC begone!

[Dystopian]

364. You're right.

Bill Clinton didn't inhale.


peace~

[SleeplessinSoCal]

377. I'll raise you one Bill Clinton and say Obama may be another FDR

[chknltl]

391. Good point, THANK GOD Bill Clinton is no Barrack Obama!

How many of the bush administration crooks would you want President Obama to pardon?

Here lemme help with this particular difference:

In Senator Obama's own words:
"What I would want to do is to have my Justice Department and my Attorney General immediately review the information that's already there and to find out are there inquiries that need to be pursued. I can't prejudge that because we don't have access to all the material right now. I think that you are right, if crimes have been committed, they should be investigated. You're also right that I would not want my first term consumed by what was perceived on the part of Republicans as a partisan witch hunt because I think we've got too many problems we've got to solve.

So this is an area where I would want to exercise judgment -- I would want to find out directly from my Attorney General -- having pursued, having looked at what's out there right now -- are there possibilities of genuine crimes as opposed to really bad policies. And I think it's important-- one of the things we've got to figure out in our political culture generally is distinguishing between really dumb policies and policies that rise to the level of criminal activity. You know, I often get questions about impeachment at town hall meetings and I've said that is not something I think would be fruitful to pursue because I think that impeachment is something that should be reserved for exceptional circumstances. Now, if I found out that there were high officials who knowingly, consciously broke existing laws, engaged in coverups of those crimes with knowledge forefront, then I think a basic principle of our Constitution is nobody above the law -- and I think that's roughly how I would look at it." (sic)

Unlike Bill, Barrack doesn't seem to be interested in picking up the Presidential Pardoning Pen. Let me repeat your point but in a better way: Barrack Obama is no Bill Clinton...THANK GOD for that!

YES WE CAN

[mistertrickster]

395. Barack O is no Bill Clinton. Amen and Thank God. nt

[D23MIURG23]

406. I agree.

Bill Clinton was always overrated.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

431. No -- Obama actually is black.

[Teaser]

449. FAIL

damn that FAIL looks good on you.

[demwing]

453. And aren't we glad about that.

Well...I am :)

[LowerManhattanite]

32. “What did the five fingers say to the face? SLAP!” :)

[Doityourself]

107. Ha Ha...Dave Chapelle in da house!

[DefenseLawyer]

324. Yo you better wrap that shit up, B!

[GarbagemanLB]

36. LOL. The thread-starter just got owned.

[d_b]

78. pwnt.

[grantcart]

88. And then there would be Carter, Kennedy and Truman lol

[slinkerwink]

94. :-)

[SoxFan]

112. Well, done, DI, well done!

http://fireproof.bravehost.com/myPictures/haha+Thou+PWNED.jpg

[Brundle_Fly]

119. you forgot Gore.

he was polling 50/50 up and down...

arguably at much of the time, he was behind.

[roguevalley]

136. Harry S. Truman.

[OzarkDem]

163. Incumbent

look it up.

[rateyes]

352. Incumbent, and polling behind the GOPer...

Look it up.

[Warren DeMontague]

137. Yep, I remember that as well. nt

[rufus dog]

192. Yeah but other than that fact what do you have Mr. Smart Ass!

:argh:

[hokies4ever]

281. ZING! Way to put the smack down on this fool!

:rofl:

[Neshanic]

283. And the secret word kiddies in the answer is "Perot" Can you say that? I knew you could.

[rateyes]

343. Dewey didn't beat Truman...

Kennedy beat Nixon...the incumbent VP.

Carter beat the incumbent, Ford.

Clinton beat the incumbent, Bush.

Gore beat Dubya.

Kerry beat Dubya.

[Mike L]

345. Clinton led from June through the election. em

[VotesForWomen]

387. yeah, one word: Perot. Clinton could have easily lost in 92 without perot.

[dsc]

2. yes

Truman, Clinton, and likely Kennedy.

[last_texas_dem]

59. All of those

Also, Al Gore- if you consider that he truly won the electoral vote, if Scalia and co. hadn't stepped in to stop the counting of the vote in FL before it was complete. Gore was down by as many as 15 points vs. Shrub, months before the election.

[blogslut]

3. It's a new world

Try to keep up

[OzarkDem]

16. No thanks, go reinvent politics on your own time

when you've got it perfected, give me a call.

I prefer evidence based politics, not celebrity candidates and "experimentation". Some of us take politics and the future of the country seriously, not just a fad, ya know.

[blogslut]

46. Yes, populism is so edgy, so unheard of

Barack Obama's campaign approach is only new in it's embrace of fresh technology. The foundation is old-school grassroots.

We're tired of corporate candidates and now we finally have a medium with which to overtake them. The reality is, this time, the people have the power.

[OzarkDem]

101. Your guy is the corporate candidate

one look at his policy agenda (written by conservative think tanks) proves that.

Typing on a computer doesn't make you a good judge of character.

[AllentownJake]

102. No it doesn't

but reading something idiotic can.

You hate Obama we get it. Go to Hillaryclintonforum.net sadly they have more thought out critism than you. You can copy paste

:rofl:

[greiner3]

328. "Go to Hillaryclintonforum.net"

Just checked them out and by my count there are about 120 people doing whatever they do over there. I wonder how they classify a "hot" topic? :rofl:

[blogslut]

225. LOL

And making shit up doesn't make it true. Have fun with your bad self. :)

[eridani]

302. Both candidates are centrist triangulaters who have the real elite's stamp of approval

One spends his money on organizing people, and the other spends hers on thugs like Mark Penn to slice and dice the electorate into microgroups to be passively manipulated with sound bites.

[smalll]

280. Hmm. "Populism" - OK. So how is it that your new "populism" attracts the rich and well-connected,

and leaves the working class cold? Guess that's all part of this strange "new world" us oldsters have to get used to, right?

[AllentownJake]

51. Pretty succesful

Obama just did what the RW was trying to do for 16 years. Beat the Clintons in an election. I think we'll be fine against McCain.

[muryan]

264. I bet that Kennedy guy pissed you off too

What the hell was that guy doing running for president with no "experience"...I'll be he loses for sure

[SwampG8r]

299. i heard he was a catholic too

not that theres anything wrong with that

[eridani]

300. Looks like neither you nor your candidate can see politics being reinvented under your noses

1960 showed that candidates like Nixon, who at the time didn't "get" television, were going to lose. These days, candidates who don't "get' the internet are going to lose. The fatal thing about the Tuzla lie was not that Clinton did a little resume enhancement once (most politicians do that occasionally), but that she kept on lying three more times after the YouTube video visually demonstrating the lie had gotten a million hits.

The other thing that has changed is that small fry donors can now account for the lion's share of a candidate's budget, and can independently start volunteer groups with well-designed web tools. Dean beta tested this in 2004, but didn't have the ground game to go with it. Obama hired very good professional organizers who knew how to fold in start-up groups into the overall campaign organization. Clinton, meanwhile, wasted her money on shitstains like Mark Penn.

When Clinton disses "activists," she's saying that she really doesn't think she needs doorbellers and phonebankers and small contributors.

[suzie]

329. So, you backed a candidate whom half of the Democrats disliked before the primaries even started,

and all of the Republicans hated?

You supported a candidate who would be the best GOTV measure that the Republicans have ever had?

How is that reality based? Unless one wants to lose before even getting started.

[Kittycat]

5. Has the loser of the Dem Primaries ever gone on to win the GE in the same year?

:shrug:

[K8-EEE]

11. MEOW!!!

Snap, Kittycat! LOL....

NOW THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION....

[SoCalDem]

29. We all remember President Tsongas, don't we?..

(rip, Mr Tsongas)

[AllentownJake]

68. Gotta keep this Kicked

[OzarkDem]

20. So I guess you're saying

you would prefer to nominate the person who will lose to the GOP instead of the one who has a chance of winning.

Ok, just checking.

Proportional Dem primary + representational General Election = Dems lose election by fielding a weak candidate.

[Thrill]

22. McCain isn't winning shit

[Kittycat]

50. Obama isn't losing to McSame. We're still in the primary race.

And places where Hillary once won - Obama is now polling far stronger than her :shrug:

If she has mismanaged and failed so horribly in her campaign, it's only a window in to what her administration would be like. She is losing, and will have lost within the next week, as Obama reaches the nomination goal.

[OzarkDem]

134. He's been attacking McCain in recent weeks

and is actually losing ground against him. That's not a good sign.

[Kittycat]

141. Actually - he's being kneecapped by Clinton trying to divide and conquer.

As soon as she's out of the picture, things will turn around. Until then, he's still in a primary race, and she's destroying the party.

[OzarkDem]

145. He sounds like Bush

He won't win the election by blaming his problems on Hillary.

Face it, he's not relating well to voters who don't already worship him.

[Kittycat]

160. The reality of the next couple of weeks is going to set in soon.

And it's going to be really hard for you. I'm sure you'll find some support somewhere.

[OzarkDem]

176. I'm fine, I'm prepared for Dems to lose in November

Many of us have already become accustomed to that reality.

Obama supporters will be in for a surprise, however.

[muryan]

265. We will be surprised when you offer your apologies

Other than that I think not

[suzie]

330. Were you so complacent

when your candidate was a sure-fire bet to lose the GE if she won the primary?

[K8-EEE]

239. He's not running for Ozark Prez

And he's getting TONS OF NEW PEOPLE OUT THERE REGISTERED.

He's gonna win.

Hillary in fact, already lost.

[OzarkDem]

252. and he's winning against McCain

Oh wait, no he's not. Clinton is.

[shagsak]

333. the one who has a chance at winning = your opinion

Good going inciting a heated debate. If we can just keep up the divisiveness we can rely on 4 more years of republican rule, yay!

I know Hillary has been beaten mathwise in the primary, but if we can now say that the nominated democrat has no chance of winning then we can teach all of those Obama supporters a lesson by 4 more years of war, recession, and poverty, how exciting!

If you change the channel you might be able to catch the last hour of Rush Limbaugh. Good luck!

[slinkerwink]

95. there is Lieberman. Just one example I know of.

[Kittycat]

371. I was speaking of President. But...

I doubt Lieberman will ever recover from what he's done, politcally. Which is why he's hooked his carriage on to McSames horses. He knows without a job from him - he'll likely be without one all together when the times comes again.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

7. I seem to recall Bill Clinton trailing behind both GHWB and Perot back in 92.

He had become a veritable joke by the time the Gennifer Flowers story broke.

Of course, though he eventually redeemed himself but still wouldn't have won without Ross Perot. So you may have a point. Guess we Obama supporters will have to work real hard.

[OzarkDem]

132. But Clinton was able to close the deal in the Dem primary

Obama only has the support of less than half of the Dem base.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

139. According to bizarro Clintonian math he does.

Actual results of primaries and caucuses (yes, they count too) refute that, as do the latest polls, which show Obama an average of 10 points ahead of Clinton nationally among Dems.

Lotsa Hillary voters apparently must be experiencing buyer's remorse.

[OzarkDem]

171. 43 million voters, nearly 3 times more than he has now

How will he get them when he's already accused 17 million of them of being racists?

[mrreowwr_kittty]

184. You've been asked repeatedly to provide proof that he has called them racists.

You can't because it doesn't exist. But you keep saying it, I guess in the hopes that repeating a lie often enough will make people believe it. Also serves as a handy way to distract from the real issue, which is that although all of Clinton's voter's are not racist, a disturbing number of them are. You know it and I know it. There's no need for Obama to point it out when a whole bunch of them in WV, KY, PA, and OH were proudly admitting it to reporters. So you attempt to distract by projection and faux-victimhood.

[OzarkDem]

250. Pennsylvania, bitter, prejudices

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNJAl8a3d9Q

Obama's surrogates here and elsewhere have done much worse. Voters will judge him by the actions of those who work for and support him. Got a problem with that, call Obama.

[JackBeck]

257. Not so bitter, afterall.

http://www.slate.com/id/2175496/

[OzarkDem]

259. Sorry, I don't read Slate

Sexist Obama boyz over there.

[JackBeck]

269. Which sources, specifically, do you use to support your posts?

[OzarkDem]

270. The fact based ones.

[JackBeck]

276. Which are...?

Keep obfuscating while trying to come up with an answer. You're only making it more obvious that you don't have a leg to stand on.

[habitual]

307. how many times can an OP be owned in one thread??? n/t

[JackBeck]

416. Clearly

multiple times.

:hi:

[Moochy]

292. It's not a trick.... it's just a simple trick!

"Right. Now I want each of you to try something interesting. It's not a trick, it's just a simple trick...."

[mrreowwr_kittty]

275. Let's see, probably Taylor Marsh, No Quarter, Hillary is 44, Hannity, and O'Reilly.

You know, the "fair and balanced" ones.

[SwampG8r]

301. too bad because what it reports

kind of makes a lie of the only line you have left on this thread
it says he wins swing states and mbbain....not so much


i have to say i have never seen a thread so completely refuted in every example
every arguement has exploded on you

[JackBeck]

314. Fascinating, isn't it? n/t

[mrreowwr_kittty]

271. Liar. He never called anyone a racist.

And if you're going to bring up "bitter" again, I just have to ask, how's that "assassination" thing working out for your candidate?

Sucks to have your words taken out of context and overblown, doesn't it?

[Moochy]

291. Move the goalposts Ozarkdumb!

you posted that Obama has called half of democratic voters racists.

Now you move the fucking goalposts.. it's his "surrogates" now.

Look, it's pining for the fjords!

[LowerManhattanite]

224. Failing grade in history—failing grade in math too...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6137173#6139231

Summer school is in order.

[muryan]

267. Class dismissed?

:rofl:

[Kittycat]

375. For the last time - Provide a link or STFU

[rug]

8. Truman.

[OzarkDem]

181. Non - incumbent

refer to the OP. Thx.

[habitual]

308. u mean the OP that you got totally wrong??? no thanx

your OP has been proven to be factually incorrect, yet you want people to refer to it?

[MrSlayer]

10. Yep, Bill Clinton.

He was behind both Perot and Poppy in the spring of 1992. If Hillary would just accept her defeat and let Obama go one on one with McCain he will easily defeat him. She needs to step aside.

[stevedeshazer]

12. Well, there was this fella named Franklin Roosevelt in 1936

http://historymatters.gmu.edu/d/5168/

<snip>

Landon in a Landslide: The Poll That Changed Polling

Landon, 1,293,669; Roosevelt, 972,897

The 1936 presidential election proved a decisive battle, not only in shaping the nation’s political future but for the future of opinion polling. The Literary Digest, the venerable magazine founded in 1890, had correctly predicted the outcomes of the 1916, 1920, 1924, 1928, and 1932 elections by conducting polls. These polls were a lucrative venture for the magazine: readers liked them; newspapers played them up; and each “ballot” included a subscription blank. The 1936 postal card poll claimed to have asked one forth of the nation’s voters which candidate they intended to vote for. In Literary Digest's October 31 issue, based on more than 2,000,000 returned post cards, it issued its prediction: Republican presidential candidate Alfred Landon would win 57 percent of the popular vote and 370 electoral votes.

:rofl:

[Hippo_Tron]

194. You know, President Landon wasn't all that bad

Other than letting Hitler take over Europe and dismantling the New Deal allowing the US to fall to a fascist coup, he really did some good things as President.

[stevedeshazer]

223. True, but you forgot his partnership with Neville Chamberlain

Together, they paved the way for the future successes of President Prescott Bush.

[Swamp Rat]

13. Hey OzarkDem, will you please join us next week?

I'd like to get the family reunion going. :)

[Gore1FL]

17. I know Truman was in 1948

Not sure where Kennedy was in 1960, but I believe he was behind.

I don't recall where Carter and Ford stood.

Clinton was 3rd in a field of 3 at this time in 1992

But actually, now that you mention it, Obama leads McCain in the national polls, so your question is moot.

[OzarkDem]

426. Truman was also the incumbent

which gives any candidate an advantage, unless he's GWB.

[Thrill]

19. They certainly have lost, polling ahead.......Gore.......Kerry

Thanks for playing

[AllentownJake]

27. Don't forget Dukakis

He was way ahead in June.

[BlooInBloo]

61. As always, reality is EXACTLY the opposite of what Clinton supporters say.

[AllentownJake]

23. Bill Clinton, John Kennedy, Truman

:shrug:

Dukakis was kicking Bush Sr in the balls in June of 1988.

[OzarkDem]

33. Obama isn't in their league

so how will he win? Run with one of them as his Veep?

[AllentownJake]

38. 6 out of 10 democrats

Thought Bill Clinton was a lousy choice in 1992.

How do you know whose in whose league before the race?

[FrenchieCat]

39. You are right. He's outclassed them all.

And the Republicans better be careful. I hope that like you and the Clintons they underestimate Obama as well. The Pubs have been trying to beat the Clintons for years and years......and here is the guy who beat them with the power of us. How sweet it is!

[Gore1FL]

56. wow

you never fail to amaze me with your ability to use fallacies.

[MattBaggins]

57. You are just a parrot aren't you?

All you can come up with is this pathetic little mantra that he isn't in their league?

[graycem]

89. Millions of people

beg to differ with you. :)

[OzarkDem]

120. So how many voters does he have now?

and will that turnout alone help him win the GE?

He has 16,685,941 voters right now. Kerry got 59,028,444 votes in 2004 and still lost.

How is Obama going to pick up 43 million more voters? He's not going to get support from the GOP and since the primary has run in every state, there are no additional uncounted voters.

Where is he going to pick up 43 million more voters?

[AllentownJake]

123. My mother was in the GOP

and is now a democrat because of Obama :-)

[eagertolearn]

435. There are a lot of GOP's in my town that switched too to vote for Obama

and many GOP's that will vote for him in the GE. Plus just about every person that i know who voted for Hillary will vote for Obama. I also know one who said she will vote for McCain but when she realizes her three son's will be going off to war she may come to her senses!

[JackBeck]

153. And Kerry got 9.9 million votes in the primary.

What's your point?

It's ridiculous you're trying to make the case that Obama has this huge gap to fill when Kerry's gap, by your numbers, was even larger.

[OzarkDem]

166. Kerry didn't call everyone a bitter racist

He also didn't alienate half the voters in the Dem party. Kerry also had a record of accomplishments to run on, people knew what he stood for.

Obama is starting from a deficit. He's a half term senator who has little in the way of record or accomplishments.

[JackBeck]

243. Obama didn't call everyone a bitter racist, either.

And what proof do you have that Obama has alienated half the voters in the Democratic party?

[graycem]

207. The same way you imply Hillary would..

by campaigning. :)

Why did Kerry have that many? Psst, because when the time came and the other candidates realized they really had no chance to overcome his lead, they gracefully exited. Too bad some candidates egos won't let them do that.

Many people vote in the GE and not the primary. Despite what you believe, many Hillary supporters will vote for him whether that makes you happy or not, because you see, he will be the Democratic nominee. I firmly believe Republican turnout will be at a low because they're disgusted with the Republican party. The last 3 special elections give evidence to that. Bob Barr will also snipe votes from McCain.

What do you think would happen if we magically gave the nomination to Hillary? Here's a clue. She'd be in the exact same boat. :)

[jlacivita]

208. Can I just say "Der"

We used to say that when someone said something not even worth responding to with coherent thoughts.

OzarkDem, you've asked two objective questions and been given object answers addressing them (Bill Clinton won from behind, Kerry got less than half the primary votes of Obama) and you just say "oh he's not in the same league".

Just... der.

If anything it shows that both Hillary and Obama were excellent candidates, which is why neither of them "wrapped it up" before now. I'm sure there will be some supporters of both that won't vote for the other, but the majority of democrats will support whoever wins.

If Hillary wins, which is highly unlikely, i'll be bitter, but I'll vote for her over any other candidate on the ballot.

Lets not forget we need a democratic president that won't veto all the bills we try to pass in the house and senate.

The biggest things a president does are sign/veto bills and appoint justices to the supreme court.

If Hillary goes back to the senate and gets sponsorship of her health care plan, you do realize that he would sign it, and not veto it, right?

[graycem]

220. Here's another point I'd like to make to you..

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6139595&mesg_id=6139595

[bigpenguin]

341. Um...

"He's not going to get support from the GOP and since the primary has run in every state, there are no additional uncounted voters."

What!?!?!?

Did I miss a memo that says you can only vote in the GE if you voted in the primaries?

Because, that's where his 43 million voters you think he needs are going to come from - people who didn't vote in the primaries.

I didn't vote in the primary, because I couldn't caucus that night. I will be voting for Obama in the GE. Do you really think I am the only person in the country who didn't go vote that night?

[rateyes]

360. He has more than Hillary Clinton has now.

Live with it.

[Hippo_Tron]

188. You're right, none of those guys had to face a primary opponent as tough as Hillary Clinton

Obama is far more ready to take on the GOP than they were.

[grace0418]

222. So let me get this straight. Your OP essentially challenged people to prove you wrong.

Then when presented with several examples that do just that, suddenly the rules change. You may not think Obama is "in their league" (whatever that means) but apparently a lot of people do. So either you can accept that and start working to beat McCain or you can continue to work against the Democratic nominee.

[stevietheman]

312. Obama is leagues above them all, and could outspeak JFK n/t

n/t

[road2000]

397. That is not correct.

Obama's every other word is "uh" when he's unscripted; he does not "outspeak" Kennedy. Liking Obama, I worry about the corporate media exploiting that flaw.

With reservations about both candidates, I voted "Democratic - uncommitted" in my recent primary, but will vote and work for the Democrat in the fall.

[stevietheman]

415. "uh" is not a fatal flaw... it how one's words move that is the greatest speaking asset. n/t

n/t

[BlooInBloo]

28. self-pwn.

[AllentownJake]

35. Recommend this post for stupidity

This is almost as good as the 14 point Victory in Indiana Celebration.

[BlooInBloo]

44. This one is good, but it's not even in the same class as That One...

However, just like That One, the real fun starts when the OP tries to defend himself or herself. They never learn to quit while they're behind.

[AllentownJake]

47. :rofl:

:rofl: :rofl:

[BlooInBloo]

48. The best part of it is that the OP had PUH-LENTY of time to edit when the truth was posted!

The OP *begged* for all of this mockery.

[AllentownJake]

52. Well you see

he knew all along he just wanted to point out how much greater every democrat who has won since 1900 is a better person than Obama

:rofl:

[BlooInBloo]

53. This thread DEFINITELY needs more recs!

[MattBaggins]

58. Seconded

This post is Tellurian or indiemuse level of stupid.

[Dystopian]

366. : )

#52 :thumbsup:



peace~

[gristy]

41. Do you support the presumptive democratic candidate for president?

You don't seem to. Senator Obama is actually polling ahead of McCain right now. And once Senator Clinton stops tearing him down and praising McCain, he will rise further.

[OzarkDem]

60. None of your business

Thanks for asking.

[AllentownJake]

62. John McCain is that you?

Did Cindy forget your medicine tonight?

[LowerManhattanite]

72. Here's McCain's “medicine” right here...

http://thumbnail.image.rakuten.co.jp/@0_mall/kawachi/cabinet/products2/granddad86.jpg

[AllentownJake]

77. Why do we have to always

have to fight the whiskey swigging millionaires.

Sigh at least he drinks American Whiskey.

[grace0418]

229. Uh, it will be our business once the primaries are over (which they essentially are).

DUers are expected to support the Democratic nominee. If you can't do that, we have a problem.

[quaker bill]

42. Apparently so

A better question would be: Has general election polling this early ever been relevant?

Look hard, you never know, you might find a case or two. I am pretty sure Dukakis was ahead at some point, Mondale as well.

[AllentownJake]

55. Kick and Please RECCOMEND

I want every Obama supporter a chance to weigh in on this one.

We need this one on the main page.

[LowerManhattanite]

64. Recommending to highlight rank stupidity and desperation! K&R!

Screen grabbed the bed-sh*t too, lest it be...“altered”. :)

[BlooInBloo]

65. TO THE GREATEST!!! Too late to edit!!

:rofl:

[LowerManhattanite]

66. Keepin' it kicked! And keep those recs a' comin! :) LOL!

[LowerManhattanite]

67. Odds on when the OP begs the Mods to lock it—2:1 :)

[AllentownJake]

69. Locking

OP is a dumbass and posted something without a minor wikipedia search begged us to make it stop

[BlooInBloo]

70. I bet never! The OP would have to admit being wrong - which Clinton supporters NEVER do!

[AllentownJake]

71. Another kick

For being owned.

[habitual]

73. K&R to show yet another person who can't admit when they

have been utterly shamed in an argument.

You post an article asking a very straight forward question and when you are given an answer that shows how wrong you are, you revert to telling everyone 'i knew it, i'm actually saying they aren't in the same league.'

EPIC FAIL AND OWNAGE.

[BlooInBloo]

75. Somebody should collect all of the can't-admit-mistake threads...

And show them to young people, as an object lesson. It's among the most unsavory American traits.

[LowerManhattanite]

84. I liked the “Obama's tanking in Oregon” jammie.

Good for a hoot.

[BlooInBloo]

96. Oh yah - that was definitely a good'un.

[LowerManhattanite]

74. I call “slaughter rule”. :) n/t

[AllentownJake]

80. Keeping it on Top

You can thank me later Ozark :hi:

[Garbo 2004]

85. Appeals to historical prcedent only work if the actual history supports you.

You asked the question, received accurate answers & then dismiss them because the facts don't fit your agenda.

So now you dismiss as irrelevant the actual history you were appealing to. Suggest next time you check your facts first before you step right into it again.

[OzarkDem]

142. Make your case

I've pointed out that Obama is in a very weak position at the end of the Dem primary, not even able to get the majority of his own party's vote. The party is divided, half have been badly insulted by him and his campaign.

Bill Clinton was in a much stronger position, hadn't alienated voters. Obama is a divisive, shallow candidate unable to talk public policy without stuttering. He's also difficult to define and vague, a trait that once worked well but has lost its charm with voters during economic hard times.

Tell us what he has going for him that is going to make up for all these deficiencies?

[suzie]

331. Do you remember 1992?

Gennifer Flowers ring a bell? I'm no Tammy Wynnette stand by my man? Would you like for me to have...baked cookies (said in the surliest tone one could imagine)?

Seems like a lot of voters were alienated by the Clintons in 1992. But, they held their noses and voted for Bill anyway.

[JackBeck]

86. I'm so glad I cleared my ignore list a few weeks ago.

Two posts over the holiday weekend that should go on record as DU classics that I would have missed.

[LowerManhattanite]

What was the other one? n/t

[JackBeck]

92. LulaMay's swan song:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6112601&mesg_id=6112601

I would have missed both of these if I hadn't felt guilty for using ignore for the very first time.

[LowerManhattanite]

98. Ah yes! Heard about that one...

...but as the screamer who posted it was on iggy (One of its classic ALL-CAPS howls blew out my computer speakers,) I missed it.


Sooooo...that was the infamous “Ah Re-saghn!” post that launched a thousand GBCW flame-outs! LOL!

[BlooInBloo]

116. That's why I never use ignore - you never know what you might miss!

[JackBeck]

121. This was a first and it was only due to a persistent contingent of posters.

It lasted barely a week, but whoo, boy am I glad I took off ignore the ones that survived!

[OzarkDem]

173. I love Lula may's posts

I read them every day on a forum where people actually support Democrats and know the issues. :hi:

[JackBeck]

186. Are you saying this isn't a forum that supports Democrats

and knows the isues?

[LowerManhattanite]

217. Nah, he's talkin' bout the griefers forum “_apital _ill”...

...where many of the most bitter who can't deal with reality de-camped some time back to echo-chamber and work up DU spam strategies under cover of password protection.

It's an amazing place, really. Kinda like Willie Wonka land—if all the candy was made from strychnine and cyanide, that is. :)

[JackBeck]

244. delete

[JackBeck]

284. I'll ask it one more time:

Are you saying that DU does not "actually support Democrats and know the issues"?

[SwampG8r]

303. omg i satirized that post

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6118275&mesg_id=6118275

[YWC08]

87. K&R

[The Doctor.]

91. Why yes... Barack Obama back in '08. Some polls had him behind, then the landslide

in Nov. '08 erased all doubt.

After that, we all know how his cabinet appointments finally proved he was all over the job. Oh, that spring in '09... FEMA really stepped up to the challenge, and if it weren't for Obama's pick... well, you know the rest.


Hmmm.... I'm getting that 'temporal.exe error' message again.

[slinkerwink]

97. Recc'ng for laughs!

[AllentownJake]

100. Come on Obama supporters

We can get 50 recs.

YES WE CAN

[anonymous171]

109. K&R

[Doityourself]

114. hmmm....

[Undercurrent]

118. right....

The OP is right. "Obama isn't in the same league as Bill Clinton", and I'm so very glad! I could barely stomach voting for Bill Clinton in '92.

Why?

Ricky Ray Rector.

Now if anyone thinks that Ricky Ray Rector makes Bill Clinton a better person than Barack Obama, I feel sorry for them. It was a despicable thing that Bill Clinton did, and it made me nauseous to have no other choice than to mark my ballot for him.

[Occam Bandage]

130. Yeah. For instance, the last one.

[senseandsensibility]

135. Isn't this thread embarrassing to the OP?

I'm embarrassed to read it, and I didn't even start it. I will never understand the die hard "Hillies." I guess they're in "another league."

[Gore1FL]

149. Nothing embarrasses OzarkDem n/t

[Bensthename]

155. His goal is be the worst DU member.. He exceeds his goal daily..

[OzarkDem]

175. Can't answer the question, eh?

As always, the thread gets very quiet when Obama fans are asked to debate anything of substance. Typical.

[Gore1FL]

191. The question has been answered repeatedly

each time you come up with an arbitrary "rationale" as to why those answers don't count.

It still doesn't matter because Obama isn't behind.

[jlacivita]

214. Hey OzarkDem why are you wearing a clownsuit?

Can't answer the question? Why not? don't just change the subject when issues of substance are brought up :)

[Name removed]

253. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[senseandsensibility]

221. Can't answer what question?

If you're talking about the question in your OP, it's been answered many, many times. You can't be that out of it, can you?

[Yael]

138. McCain's chief strategist QUIT because he doesn't want to go up against Obama

The man QUIT his JOB rather than face Obama.

Hillary was what he signed up for.

Of course you will spin this that he isn't needed anymore. Before you do, I insist on a traffic report. You know, the real measure.

[NJSecularist]

164. His chief strategist is Charlie Black.

Charlie Black still works for McCain.

Do you guys pull this stuff out of your ass? :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[Yael]

172. Sorry -- my bad. Senior Strategist Mark McKinnon was the one who just quit

Senior, not chief...

"Lead Media Consultant"

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/05/mckinnon_to_step_aside_from_mc.html

Mark McKinnon, the lead media consultant for Sen. John McCain's (Ariz.) presidential bid, is stepping down from that role -- making good on a pledge he made last year not to work against Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) in the fall campaign.

[Inuca]

178. I think he was communications director

I may be wrong though... classy guy in any case.

[OzarkDem]

179. Got a link?

[Yael]

196. Yup

http://www.blog.newsweek.com/blogs/theruckus/archive/2008/05/21/crooks-and-liars-top-mccain-aide-steps-aside-rather-than-take-on-obama.aspx

[Bensthename]

150. Obama is leading McCain.. Is this a trick question?

Or just another dumb post by the worst DU member here.. I think the latter is true.

Obama is leading McCain by 8 points. Sorry to inform you McCain will lose this Nov.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN2034087120080521?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=22&sp=true

[Duder]

159. Comedy gold

[NJSecularist]

161. It's pretty clear that Obama is the worst Democratic candidate we've had since Dukakis.

He has even more of a glass jaw than Dukakis too.

[OzarkDem]

167. and he has to pick up at least 43 million more voters

after having insulted most of them by calling them bitter racists. :eyes:

[LowerManhattanite]

174. To continue this lame meme, you might wanna start a NEW dimwitted post...

...instead of repeatedly self-kicking the one where you've been shown to be way less-than-brilliant and the possessor of a mayfly's grasp of history.

Just sayin'. :)

[BlooInBloo]

201. NOOOOO!!!!! Keep THIS one going! It's FTW!!!!

[LowerManhattanite]

213. Well, okay. But I'll kick this new little “look over here” meme in the ass too...

Care to guess McCain's primary pop vote total? A paltry 4,834,584!

(Romney's is close at 4,111,430).

Where the hell would this “juggernaut” McCain get HIS votes with having thrown a chunk of his fundie base (the most activated Goopers who vote) with his dissing the odious Hagee and Parsley last week, and them withdrawing their endorsements

4,834,584! vs. over 17,000,000

OMG! He'd have to make up around 8x that just to be competitive with Kerry's numbers while Obama would have to only triple it by our “A Beautiful Mind” OP's standards, eh?

GOP pop vote primary totals here: http://flaminggrasshopper.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/rep.htm

This is like boxing a blindfolded dude with 200 lb weights chained to his wrists. :)

[BlooInBloo]

216. Well when you put it that way, it's clear that Obama is doomed...

DOOMED!!!

:rofl:

[Bensthename]

177. And if so, Hillary still can't beat him.. What does that say about her?

:rofl:

[OzarkDem]

185. Hillary polls ahead of McCain, has for quite a while

She is liked and hasn't alienated voters. She hasn't called them bigots and racists. Her husband is well liked and respected by many Dems.

And she's consistently polled ahead of McCain. She already has an advantage of being the most popular candidate over Obama and McCain.

In the real world, that's quite an advantage.

[Bensthename]

190. She has the highest negatives of any candidate ever

in a race with a shit load of baggage on her a Bill that the GOP is just waiting to dump on the 527 groups.. Your fantasy with Hillary is just that..

Also, Obama is polling 8 points ahead of McCain... And 10 ahead of Hillary.. A pretty solid pick to run against McCain..

But keep up your racist posts, they will not be aloud here any more in a couple of more weeks.

[NJSecularist]

195. Who cares if she has high negatives?

She still wins Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania by large margins. And that will decide the election.

[BlooInBloo]

202. Absolutely no one but Democrats.

[kwassa]

204. I think this thread deserves a DUzy.

Really hilarious.

[Duder]

180. Well then...

[skyounkin]

420. O...M...G....

That's just evil!! LMfiggin'AO!!! HAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

But soo sooooo true.

[VotesForWomen]

456. yep; the leftists in the democratic party have completely gone of the deep end. nt

[Hippo_Tron]

198. Umm

[TooRaLoo]

200. LMAO

pwn'd.

[Hippo_Tron]

203. Not sure if she's stupid or just trying to start another thread that says...

Obama is like Dukakis and Mondale not like Clinton and Kennedy.

Either way, she's not changing anyone's mind.

[Dinger]

209. No Worries

[Moochy]

211. Have you ever made sense?

[Catherina]

212. Recommending for sheer comedic value n/t

[CreekDog]

215. Bill Clinton 3rd behind Perot and Bush

this time 16 years ago.

but when you post this you *aren't* being divisive.

when I post that Hillary is acting like 5 year old, it *isn't* being devisive (according to your logic).

i should mention also that Kerry and Gore were ahead at this point then fell behind.

being ahead at this point apparently doesn't make a critical difference.

besides, Hillary has been attacking Obama for months now, is it any wonder his numbers have gone down among Democrats?

[ProSense]

219. Embarrassing. n/t

[neverforget]

227. Worst. Logic. Ever

[berni_mccoy]

228. LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL! THIS HAS SEVERAL DUzy Awards in it! K&R FOR LAUGHS!

[Hamlette]

230. only the ones who eventually lose.....maybe we should break the mold n/t

[FredScuttle]

231. You are correct....Obama isn't in the same league as Bill Clinton

Obama will manage to get over 50% of the vote in the general election.

[bhikkhu]

232. K&R - thanks for a positive and educational post!

[cbc5g]

238. Duzy award and welcome to ignore

It makes GP: P so much better

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

241. His name was Bill Clinton

You might want to get a fundamental grasp of American History before you post such embarrassing crap.

[OzarkDem]

255. and Obama is no Bill Clinton

get a clue.

[Undercurrent]

260. No he is not.

Did Ricky Ray Rector make you feel lovey dovey for Bill?

[thewiseguy]

262. You were wrong in your OP. Just admit it and move on.

[LordJFT]

274. nope, he'll never be the corporatist perjurer that Bill was, that's for sure

[rg302200]

313. Ozark...come on now

I remember some of your posts in the Ohio forum, very informative and interesting...you asked a simple question.."has a dem candidate every polled behind a GOP and then won in November" and when you hear Bill Clinton you can't accept that answer because you don't think Obama and Clinton are the same type of politician.

Its that type of cherry picking that turned me from a Hillary supporter to an Obama supporter in the first place. When Hillary can't have it her way she simply changes the rules, much like you are doing in this post.

Face it they answered that your favorite guy of all time was polling behind both Perot and Bush and still won. Obama will win, its time to drop the Hillary rhetoric and work towards beating McCain.

[onenote]

359. Bill Clinton is no Al Gore

At least not by your way of analyzing these things. After all, in 1992, Clinton go 44.9 million votes out of around 104 million cast. Eight years later, Al Gore got 51 million of out around 105 million. So I guess Al is the better campaigner. And let's not forget about John Kerry, who was such an inspiring campaigner that he got 59 million voters to show up at the polls for him.

[mcgindydem]

367. my 2 cents

Bill Clinton, was a pretty good politician, but even you would have to admit he got a lot of mileage out of HW Bush's colossal blunder. If it had not been for the famous "Read my lips: No More Taxes" statement it would have been much more difficult for him to have won. But then again maybe you wont admit that

[mkultra]

272. TROLL

[bvar22]

277. K&R

for the Schadenfreude,
and the ass hanging out embarrassment of another Low Information Voter, Hillary's base.

[bjnumb9]

365. You call it Low Information voter, I call it low IQ voter. All the same. n/t

[Douglas Carpenter]

279. Average national poll Obama 47.0/McCain 44.0=Obama +3///Clinton 46.1/McCain 44.7=Clinton + 1.4

Average of National Polls:

Obama 47.0/McCain 44.0 = Obama + 3.0

Clinton 46.1/McCain 44.7 = Clinton + 1.4

The general election polls averages the latest polls from Gallup Tracking, Rasmussen Tracking, Quinnipiac,ABC News/Wash Post, Democracy Corp, LA Times/Bloomberg, IDBB/TIPP, Battleground

links:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html


-------------------------------------------------

Rasmussen Markets data gives Sen. Obama a 63% chance of winning the White House in November

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up."

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.0% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

link: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

------------------

[JackBeck]

287. Kick and big Rec!

[Gore1FL]

288. Yes We Can

[Alexander]

290. WAAAAAAAAAHHHH!!! The Goddess of Peace won't get crowned!!!

OzarkDem, translated:

Scary black man interfered with the coronation of Queen Hillary!

WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHH!!!!!

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[JI7]

295. HAHHAHAHHAHAH

[nichomachus]

310. Harry Truman

[BlooInBloo]

318. This is a really, really wonderful thread. Thank you OzarkDem!!!

[Utopian Leftist]

320. LOL Pwned again!

Ozark said: "She is liked and hasn't alienated voters. She hasn't called them bigots and racists."

No, she just called them all sexist misogynists and let her true subconscious intent be known, of staying in the race until one of her psychotic minions eliminates her competition for her.

[debbierlus]

323. Since both candidates lead in the majority of polls, why the question?

McCain's campaign manager was busted for lying about his poll numbers, and one or two polls showing a small lead or even race don't coincide with the majority of polling!

[book_worm]

325. Yes, Bill Clinton in '92 running third behind Perot & Bush I

[RichardRay]

334. Which current polls did you have in mind?

Mind you, that's current polls. You may indeed have some; I certainly have some showing the opposite. And, the fact is that neither yours nor mine mean very much at this point. You're grasping pretty hard at straws, they won't hold you up.

[Maria Wr]

335. When Hillary is gone this will all be a moot case

Because the difference b/w Oabma and McCain is serious.
McCain is wrong on so many levels.
Hillary blew it big time. Pissed off a LOT of people with her slash/burn tactics.
Chickens came home this time.
Ozark Dem sounds like one of McCain's paid bloggers.
http://www.johnmccain.com/ActionCenter/BlogInteract/BlogInteract.aspx

Most sane HRC supporters see the light and are focusing on the Repugs...

[ecstatic]

336. Have Dems ever won without black support?

:shrug:

[Spiffarino]

337. K&R for mass exposure!

:rofl:

[Seabiscuit]

340. You sure brought the "Ignoreds" out of the woodwork. :)

[BlooInBloo]

353. The irony of *you* chiming in on this thread is just too great to let pass unremarked!!!

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[racaulk]

382. WIPEOUT!!!

:rofl:

[Occam Bandage]

370. ...and OzarkDem was Seabiscuited in *both* senses of the word!

[Seabiscuit]

400. Gee, just for saying that I even snagged 3!

:evilgrin:

[racaulk]

414. Who cares?

[Seabiscuit]

433. Plus one!

:bounce:

[racaulk]

447. Nope, I'm a repeat customer.

Dumbass.

:bounce:

[Seabiscuit]

452. OMG! They're still here???

[racaulk]

458. Yep, I'm still here.

And thanks for helping me bump this thread. Dumbass. :)

[fascisthunter]

347. You Can Say That All you Want But You and Hillary

have deservedly earned to be ignored... go luck tearing down the Democratic Candidate.

Your SOUR GRAPES has gotten the best of you vocal Hillary supporters.

[ingac70]

349. K&R...

so everyone can see the stupidity.

[LSK]

350. K&R - "less popular" depends on which way the polll winds are blowing at any moment

[Gman]

354. Excellent point! K&R

Obama has never won a seriously challenged race against a Republican. Obama is a small-time 3rd tier candidate that used racism to get to where he's at. Obama will lose 40 states in November.

Seat Hillary's Florida delegates.

[bvar22]

378. How can all of you fit inside that little car?

Obama has WON a seriously challenged race........against the Clintons, 2008.

[Gman]

398. I'll bet you really believe that, don't you

Oh, yeah... He kicked ass in Idaho and Oregon, didn't he? How about that Democratic Party bastion of Montana? He just kicked ass all over the place didn't he? Oh, how about South Carolina, or Mississippi or Georgia? Yup, used racism to kick Hillary's ass didn't he? Or how about Florida or Michigan? Oops... you don't want to talk about those, huh? Or New York, or New Jersey, or Pennsylvania, or Texas, or Ohio, or any other big electoral vote states? Oops... you don't want to talk about those either, do you?

[onenote]

356. If Bill Clinton was the greatest campaigner ever, why did he get so few votes?

Look, I'm glad Bill Clinton beat Bush I and I'm glad he was re-elected, but the fact is that he was not the "greatest campaigner ever", not by a longshot.

Check the numbers:

In 1992, he managed to get 44.9 million out of around 104 million votes cast. By comparison, Al Gore got 51 million out of around 105.3 million. Which I guess means that Al Gore is an even greater campaigner, although most people might question that claim. Heck, even as an incumbent, Bill Clinton couldn't get 50 percent of the vote.

BTW, I'm not claiming that Clinton wouldn't have won without Perot in the race, because chances are Clinton still would've prevailed, although by a smaller margin in the electoral college. My point is that the "greatest campaigner ever" managed to let a goofy guy with big ears, a funny voice and one of the worst VP running mates ever get 8 million votes.

[THUNDER HANDS]

357. polls mean nothing, Dukakis was beating Bush by 20 points at the convention

we all know how that turned out.

[bjnumb9]

358. Thank you OzarkDem. This is the DU version of a clown show.

Your scrambling after this pathetic OP is just pure slapstick comedy.

[madrchsod]

363. i have not replied...

[Hola]

368. Obama is polling ahead

In fact he has the biggest lead over McCain:

http://realclearpolitics.com/

Obama + 2.4

Clinton + 1.4

The Dem candidates poll well behind Mac. Best bet is to go with Obama. He has the largest lead.

[Grinchie]

369. If you are the strongest supporter Hillary has, She's in Big, Big Trouble.

Nice way to go down in Flames Troll = OzarkDem.

Even though you claimto have worked on the Big Dog's campaign above, it is clear that you are a dinosaur, and have no clue about research, analysis, or when to quit.

Of course, being able to hide beind the Anonymity of the Internet, you feel empowered to stand up and shout, "But I Am Napolean" without having the men in white coats take you away.

Although I usually loathe Trolls, you have done a great service for us. The overwhelming outpouring of support for Obama proves to me that he is indeed the strongest candidate, no matter how much energy you expell on behalf of the Clintons.

You also make Hillary look bad when you lie as much as you do, but that's what good Trolls do.

Remember to Vote!

[Occam Bandage]

372. Well, it depends on the traffic, I think. How's the traffic near you?

[Mongooseflies]

376. You can actually track how far she's falling by the minute here...

http://adsoftheworld.com/watch_hillary_clinton_falling





:rofl:

[bjnumb9]

381. This link is outstanding, thank you very much!

heh heh

[Mongooseflies]

388. My pleasure

Anything to lighten up some of the tension 'round here.

:popcorn:

[skyounkin]

421. That's so wrong...

and NO I did not help her once or twice in her descent......

}( :yoiks:

[Joe Chi Minh]

383. You must be severely intellectually-challenged if you believe any

poll that suggests McCain (or any Republican) has or has had since at least 2000, the remotest chance of being as popular as virtually any Democratic candidate (probably including Lieberman!), bar Hillary. The Republican party is a busted flush. Get over it.

[IronLionZion]

384. kick for Hillarity!

:kick: :rofl:

[VotesForWomen]

386. there are a number of ominous indicators for an O nomination, and the GOP/MSM attack machine is defi

definitely holding back on stuff, waiting till he gets the nom. if/when he does, his numbers will only go down.

[Terran]

389. You're really an Obama person in disguise, right? right??

Because you're certainly doing a great job of making Hil's supporters look stupid. :thumbsup:

[DFW]

390. Here's how it will work:

1.)
You assemble a competent PR team with feelers everywhere looking for
trouble (and there will be plenty of that).

2.)
You keep your cool at all times except when....

3.)
You respond to Swiftboat-style attacks immediately, forcefully,
and in such a manner to make the country feel that the Swiftboaters
are not just attacking you, but the whole of America as well.

4.)
You keep your cool even while doing #3.

You are going to be Commander in Chief. Just act like you already are.

[Mike L]

392. Dems have never won with a far-left candidate. BO won't be the first.

Shoulda picked a centrist like Bill Clinton or Carter.....

or Hillary.

[quaker bill]

417. Wait a minute

could you guys stop a minute and get your story straight? Hillary is more liberal, Hillary is more centrist, Hillary is more progressive, Hillary is more pro-gun working class, Hillary is more populist, Hillary is better at knocking back boilermakers, Hillary is the better bowler....

There is no point to electing centrists anyway. The truth is almost never an average somewhere between right and left, all you get there are ineffective half measures and curiously nuanced votes for war that really aren't what they seem, but people die anyway.

Centrists: For the war before they were against it.

By the way and for your information, I know the far-left, the far-left are friends of mine, Barack Obama is not far-left. He is not even particularly close to it.

[Mike L]

430. Then why do you support him?

"By the way and for your information, I know the far-left, the far-left are friends of mine, Barack Obama is not far-left. He is not even particularly close to it."

[quaker bill]

443. Because

he did not vote for the war. I am actually a Quaker and do take the sort of blunder Hillary made personally, particularly when I wrote her and our other democratic party members of congress to request otherwise.

Obama had the guts to stand against an overwhelmingly popular war (85%+ popular) while running for office. Curiously, standing in protest at more or less the same time I was. Hillary voted for it from a Senate seat that was completely safe for another 4 years (by the constitution). In short, as McClelland's book indicates, she was completely snowed by the village idiot (Bush). Alternately, she was cold and politically calculating with the lives of other people's kids. Either way, she does not get my support.

[VotesForWomen]

457. correct; i think the Obamists are in a state of mass delusion. they think the whole country loves th

their messiah as much they do.

[GOPBasher]

394. If that was your concern, why didn't you vote for Edwards?

Edwards was doing better against all GOP candidates from the beginning, which is why I supported him. I don't understand why Clinton OR Obama supporters would suddenly care about electability. Why didn't you all care from the beginning?

[Danger Mouse]

410. Hahaha, pwned.

[BlooInBloo]

411. I heart this thread.

[swishyfeet]

419. Kick for failure

[racaulk]

422. Kick for more pwnage.

[Vinca]

423. We don't have a candidate yet. If we did, he or she might very well

be polling better. We're still in the primary season because a certain candidate is living in fantasy land.

[OzarkDem]

428. Not good enough

Obama's base is a small demographic and he's not shown any success in expanding it. He's given no reason to assume he will pick up a wider base of support.

Clinton, OTOH, has support in a much broader demographic - argue all you want, but its absolutely necessary if Dems want to win the WH.

[Vinca]

437. Okay. Let's give it to Hillary. So . . . what about the black voters?

Everyone's in a tizzy over the "working whites," but no one mentions the African American vote that is behind Obama. Hillary can't win without them any more than Obama can win without white voters.

[onenote]

442. Obama hasn't "shown any success in expanding" his base

So he went from under 20 percent in the polls to the high 40s without expanding his base? Interesting. Must be "magic"....

[Teaser]

450. you FAILed. And in the first reply to your post too.

Hilarious. And all you've done since then is make yourself an object of ridicule.

Bravo! Brav-fucking-o!

[BlooInBloo]

432. This thread goes wonderfully with my morning coffee and smoke.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

440. The Breakfast of Champions.

French Roast and Marlboros.

[JackBeck]

441. Ahhh, those were the days.

I've cut back significantly, most days not having a smoke until about 6pm.

In fact, I'll go have one now.

:hi:

[Douglas Carpenter]

446. Average national poll Obama 46.7/McCain 44.1=Obama + 2.6///Clinton 45.9/McCain 44.7=Clinton + 1.2

First of all it's irrelevant now that the race is over and Barak Obama will be the nominee.

Average Polls in Nomination Race:

Obama 50.8/Clinton 40.8 = Obama +10

The nomination polls are the averages of Rasmussen Tracking, Gallup Tracking, Newsweek, Reuters/Zogby, Quinnipiac and Washington Post/ABC.

link:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

In that Sen. Obama has both John McCain and Hillary Clinton attacking him it is only common sense that this would have some negative effect on his ratings.

Average of National Polls:

Obama 46.7/McCain 44.1 = Obama + 2.6

Clinton 45.9/McCain 44.7 = Clinton + 1.2

The general election polls averages the latest polls from Gallup Tracking, Rasmussen Tracking, Quinnipiac,ABC News/Wash Post, Democracy Corp, LA Times/Bloomberg, IDBB/TIPP, Battleground

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_clinton-224.html
---------------------------------------

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.4% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants)."

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up."

link:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

----------------------------

And here are the predictions from the financial markets:

Intrade Prediction Markets: http://www.intrade.com / (The Rasmussen Market figures are pretty much in the same ball park: http://markets.rasmussenreports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?selConID=261450# )

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 61.5% to 63.4% chance that the Democrats will win the White House in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 57.5% to 57.6%chance that Barak Obama will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 5.8% to 5.9% chance that Hillary Clinton will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 37.6% to 37.7% chance that John McCain will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 37.0% to 38.7% chance the Republicans will win the White House in November


-------------------------------------

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up":

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[Teaser]

448. You set yourself up

0wned. Fucking 0wned.

[JackBeck]

451. It appears no one in this thread has answered your question.

:evilgrin: