Obama's Coattails May Drive Record Black Turnout in House Races

[marmar]

from Bloomberg:



Obama's Coattails May Drive Record Black Turnout in House Races

By Laura Litvan

May 29 (Bloomberg) -- In 2006, Ohio Republican Representative Steve Chabot barely survived the electoral drag of the Iraq War, congressional scandals and an unpopular president. Barack Obama's presidential candidacy this year may deliver a knockout blow.

More than a quarter of the voters in Chabot's Cincinnati district are black, the highest concentration for any incumbent House Republican in a competitive race this fall. Obama's likely spot at the top of the Democratic ticket may fuel a surge in turnout among black voters that could help the party pick up a half-dozen new House seats.

There has already been record turnout of black voters in this year's primary contests. The Obama campaign and political experts expect that trend to continue in the fall, imperiling incumbents in Republican-held House districts that have a double- digit black vote.

``You'll see a record proportion of the vote in each district that is African-American,'' said Dave Wasserman, House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report in Washington.

Chabot's district gave President George W. Bush only a little more than 50 percent of its vote in 2004. Still, Chabot said he is confident he will win re-election against Democrat Steve Driehaus.

`Battle-Tested'

``We're battle-tested and we've been through this many times before,'' Chabot, 55, said in an interview. ``Nobody's going to sneak up on us.''

Chabot, who is serving his seventh term, said he expects record voter turnout for both parties, and any boost Obama or presumptive Republican nominee John McCain may give to other candidates will balance out.

Democratic candidates have already benefited from Illinois Senator Obama's coattails in recent special elections in Mississippi and Louisiana, where the party picked up two House seats, said David Bositis, an expert on black voting trends at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies in Washington.

The Louisiana seat, won in April by Democrat Dan Cazayoux, is in a district where one-third of voters are black. This month, in Louisiana, Democrat Travis Childers won a district where almost a third of voters are black.

That trend will accelerate this fall, Bositis said. ......(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adkPhlSZYS0Q&refer=home

[roseBudd]

1. This is how we won the special election in MS

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

2. Not if KKKarl Rove's Caging Lists aren't taken care of...

We have to make sure that voter turnout in black communities are so incredibly high that they can't steal it. The other problem is that it's being reported that many precincts aren't really to accommodate the high turnout that is expected. So we have to fix those two problems, first.

Note: I think GA has a Voter ID law. That may impact the turnout as well. These issues need to be dealt with.

[CanonRay]

3. Do you think they'll let them have more than one voting machine per precinct this year?

[NatBurner]

6. lol they'll prolly put it in an ice cream truck

and make em chase it around the district

[NashVegas]

4. Not If People Don't Vote In the Other Races

Many Obama voters ignored other Texas primary races

Backers of both Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton turned out with passionate support for their candidate in last week's Texas primary. But once they got in the voting booth, they did something different.

Obama supporters were more likely to vote in the presidential race and then skip the other contests than Clinton supporters, who tended to continue voting down the ballot, a Dallas Morning News analysis finds.

More than 80 percent of Democratic voters in the Texas counties where Mrs. Clinton had her largest victory margins went on to vote in the U.S. Senate race, the leading statewide contest on the ballot after the presidential race. By contrast, only 71 percent of voters in Mr. Obama's strongest counties did.

In Dallas County, where Mr. Obama got nearly two-thirds of the vote, the falloff was nearly 30 percent.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/latestnews/stories/030908dnpoldemvoters.3a5249f.html

[marmar]

5. That won't be the case in the general.....

They'll vote the whole slate.

[NashVegas]

9. You Sound Awfully Certain

I can only assume you are campaign staff.

[marmar]

10. Oh good grief....It's impossible to have a reasonable debate when people spout such bullshit....

Sure, I'm campaign staff, whatever you say. :eyes:

That's why I rarely visit this forum. There's enough batshit craziness over here to fill up 100 insane asylums.
:crazy:

[Stop Cornyn]

7. "may"?

[marmar]

8. Bloomberg is looking ahead to November, so the headline writer can write a "definitive" headline....

.... Since it's not an opinion piece or column.