Serious Questions About This Weekend

[WVRevy]

I'm trying to put together the potential scenarios depending on what the DNC rules committee decides this weekend.

Right now, not counting Florida and Michigan at all, Obama has 1982 delegates, Clinton has 1782 delegates, and the "magic number" is 2026. What I want to try to figure out is, what are each of those numbers going to look like under each of the following scenarios:

1) Florida delegation seated as voted, Michigan delegation with a compromise 69-59.

2) Florida and Michigan each seated with 1/2 votes. (Obama receives all "Uncommitted" votes)

3) Florida and Michigan seated as voted. (Obama receives all "Uncommitted" votes)

What I'm trying to really get to is...what are the two candidates' "magic number" of delegates they need in order to secure the nomination.

Thanks in advance.....

[ieoeja]

1. I'm not going to do all the math again, but I will summarize.

Given: Florida and Michigan reinstated fully.
Given: Delegates apportioned according to the illegitimate votes with Obama getting ZERO from Michigan.
Given: Hillary gets 100% of Edwards and uncommitted delegates.

Then: Obama would have to win 45% of the delegates in the three remaining primaries.

And that is the absolute, worst-case, insanely extreme, never going to happen case for Obama.

Which is makes the claim that we Obama supporters only want FL/MI punished because it helps Obama a pretty stupid claim. From the perspective of electing Obama, it doesn't matter. Even in the most extreme, never going to happen, worst-case scenario, he is virtually guaranteed a victory.

Those of us wanting FL/MI punished are trying to defend the fucking Democratic Party. It has nothing to do with winning this election. We can not have gov't controlled parties. Should Florida be able to decide next election that the Democratic primary must be held the day before the general election? At what point do we stand up to totalitarianism?

[WVRevy]

2. Hey, you're preaching to the choir

...if I can say that today without some loon trying to claim it as another Obama "scandal". :banghead:

What I'm trying to come up with are the actual numbers...the number of delegates each of them will need if one of the three scenarios I posted actually occurs. Basically, I want those numbers so that I can use them to smack around a particularly obnoxious Hillary supporter that seems to think that the only thing she really needs to win the nomination is to have Florida and Michigan seated.

If nobody has the numbers or wants to repost them, I'd settle for a link to someplace that examines the most likely scenarios and has some of the math included in the analysis.

[Kittycat]

3. Likely 2118 - Check out FirstRead. Chuck Todd has a nice analysis

[WVRevy]

4. I haven't read all the way through that, yet

...but I think it might be exactly what I'm looking for.

Thanks a million!

[olkaz]

5. my serious questions about this weekend

1. How much beer can I reasonably drink?

2. Is there such a thing as barbecuing too much?

3. How many jokes can I make about John McCain in front of my conservative friends before they threaten to throw me in the pond?

I'm taking a break from worrying about this crap.

[grantcart]

6. demconwatch has a large section on it.

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/fl-mi-by-numbers_21.html

[NoSheep]

7. Thanks

[WVRevy]

8. That is awesome!

Thanks...that's exactly what I was looking for.