PolNewf
(388 posts)
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Sun Nov-02-08 12:07 PM
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North Carolina: 75% of 2004 total votes have already voted as of this morning |
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Party ID of voters: Dem 50.8% Rep 30.6% Ind 18.5% Age 18-29 15.0% (this jumped from 11% a few days ago) 30-44 23.4% 45-64 40.0% 65+ 21.5% Race White 69.6% Black 26.1% (22% of population) Other 4.3% Sex Men 42.9% 42.9% Women 56.3% 56.6% Unk 0.1% 0.4% Ballot Absentee 10.5% 13.1% One-Stop 89.5% 86.9% http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
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GalleryGod
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Sun Nov-02-08 12:08 PM
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1. Oh, Lawdy! Get your life vest, Libby! |
Smuckies
(600 posts)
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Sun Nov-02-08 12:09 PM
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2. Woah, amazing. We'll win NC for sure. |
grantcart
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Sun Nov-02-08 12:27 PM
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3. There are 532,222 more Democrats than Republicans that have voted already |
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Almost 800,000 more Democrats have voted in early voting than in 2004
Independent votes in 2004 154,275
Independent votes in 2008 202,418 increse 48,143
Republican votes in 2004 409,213
Republican votes in 2008 814,299 increase 405,086
Democratic votes in 2004 531,758
Democratic votes in 2008 1,330,555 increase 798,797
McCain will have to get more than 66% of the votes on election day to win North Carolina and save his campaign.
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PolNewf
(388 posts)
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Sun Nov-02-08 12:27 PM
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4. Using Rasmussen latest poll percentages |
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Total Early votes: 2,661,110
Dem (50.8%): 1,351,844 Rep (30.6%): 814,300 Ind (18.5%): 492,305
Obama Dem (87%): 1,176,104 Rep (7%) : 57,001 Ind (46%): 226,460
McCain Dem (13%): 175,740 Rep (93%): 757,299 Ind (54%): 265,845
Obama : 1,459,566 (54.8%) McCain : 1,198,883 (45.1%) Difference: 260,682 (9.8%)
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Tribetime
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Sun Nov-02-08 12:30 PM
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5. I love that # for women turnout |
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man could this end early?
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FVZA_Colonel
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Sun Nov-02-08 12:38 PM
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6. It looks like the early youth vote is, at least, not going to drop off from previous levels. |
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Edited on Sun Nov-02-08 12:44 PM by FVZA_Colonel
I imagine we will see an overall gain in youth early voting, but a small one compared to other groups. Where we'll really see the surge is on November 4th, and in Absentee ballots.
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PolNewf
(388 posts)
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Sun Nov-02-08 12:57 PM
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7. Going from my last numbers McCain needs a huge election day margin |
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If turnout doesn't change this year that would leave 25% of the vote remaining. McCain would need to win that 25% by 30 points (65%-35%). If turnout increaes by 10% this year that would leave ~32% of the vote remaining. McCain would need to win that 32% by 22 points (61%-39%). If turnout increaes by 20% this year that would leave ~38% of the vote remaining. McCain would need to win that 38% by 18 points (59%-41%).
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DU
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Sat May 11th 2024, 04:33 PM
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