538.Com: Pennsylvania Tightening, Virgina Tightening, Florida Moved To Toss up, McCain Win% Improves

[malik flavors]

Polls conducted since our update last evening suggest some tightening toward John McCain, but he sits well behind both nationwide and in many key battleground states and remains a long-shot to win the election.

The good news for McCain? SurveyUSA has become the latest pollster to show the race tightening in Pennslyvania, now giving Barack Obama a 7-point lead after he'd been in the mid-double digits at various points in October. The Muhlenberg/Morning Call tracker has also continued to tighten, also settling on that 7-point number.

SurveyUSA also has Virginia tightening a bit to 4 points. And McCain gained incrementally in the Research 2000, Gallup, and Diageo/Hotline trackers, although this comes after a couple of days when Obama had been moving up. (Rasmussen held steady, whereas Obama ticked up in Zogby).

Overall, our model shows McCain closing Obama's gap in the national popular vote to about 5.4 points. His win percentage has increased to 6.3 percent, from 3.8 percent last night.

More: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/todays-polls-112-afternoon-edition.html

[Whalestoe]

1. K&R

[TheDonkey]

2. eeeek!

[FARAFIELD]

3. Was Florida ever NOT a tossup?

Also you can kick a field goal with one second left while losing by ten doesnt mean you win. You need to read NATES entire post about PEnnsylvania being "IN PLAY". anyhoo

[malik flavors]

6. Yea, it was lean Obama, now it's 50/50. Obama's electoral votes number went down.

[thewiseguy]

18. Can you get rid of that fucking siren in your signature?

[malik flavors]

45. Why?

[azmouse]

4. Not worried in the least.

[malik flavors]

8. Uh oh. It's New Hampshire all over again.

[Sebastian Doyle]

15. Are you saying that McCain embarrassing himself on SNL

will have the same effect that Hillary crying did in NH?

[malik flavors]

20. Where do you get that from?

I'm just talking about over confidence and complacency. It's what cost us new Hampshire, even though Obama had a double-digit lead in the polls.

[Sebastian Doyle]

30. I also remember there was some question of accuracy in the NH count.

As there should have been, given the discrepancies between the precincts that actually voted VS the ones that used Diebold Republican Video Games.

[dennis4868]

5. I think if McCain had another month...

he would have a chance but there's just 2 days left and not enough time for McCain to overcome Obama....

[OmahaBlueDog]

10. If McSame had stopped with Ayers and talked about the economy after the 2nd debate

...he might have had a real shot. As it is, the campaign is reaping what it has sewn.

[SKKY]

21. I think a better way of putting that would be...

...not enough time for McCain to overcome McCain.

[AtomicKitten]

7. Obama has charted several paths to electoral victory.

I would take a miracle for McBush to pull this race out of the crapper.

[demo dutch]

9. I'm still soooo nervous!

[DeeDeeNY]

11. From the rest of the post:

"However, several cautions about reading too much into these numbers:

Firstly, I have the model programmed to be EXTREMELY aggressive this time of year. There have been relatively few 'fresh' polls conducted within the past 24-48 hours -- most of these state polls were in the field late last week. As we get more data in today and tonight, the model could very well decide that the race is not tightening at all. Moreover, polling conducted on a weekend -- particularly on a quasi- holiday weekend -- is generally unreliable."

[speedoo]

28. The more significant things that Nate said, for me:

"Secondly, even with this tightening, McCain remains well short the 2/2/2 condition that we defined last week:

John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.
Indeed, McCain has not come within 2 points of Obama in any polls in any of these states.

Finally, where McCain has made progress, it has come mostly from undecided voters rather than Obama's support -- this is particularly the case in Pennsylvania. Therefore, he may be running out of persuadables to persuade."

[DeeDeeNY]

32. Nate is also extra conservative with his charts

which is why I trust him more than any of the others.

Not sure what those undecided voters could be looking at, though.

[Shoelace]

34. thankyou!!! I was just going to post that

crikey, those weekend polls aren't worth a rat's butt. Tomorrow mornings results should tell the tale. Plus, early voting in FL, NC, etc., shows way more Dems voting early than Republicans.

[HughMoran]

12. See, now the person that recommended this

... is a troll.

[Whalestoe]

14. Yeah, I'm a troll.

Huh?

[HughMoran]

17. Polls tightening

McCains chance at winning goes up - you think this is good?

[Whalestoe]

22. I think it's worth noting rather than ignoring.

[HughMoran]

26. You think this is worth recommending?????????????

You are not a troll?

[Whalestoe]

27. Okay. Yes. I'm a secret closet Republican who hopes Obama loses

and just love giving what little money I make to him--so he loses.

[HughMoran]

31. Seems that way

Who the FUCK would recommend a post showing that McCain has an improving chance of winning?

[Whalestoe]

35. You got it: a sleeper-cell Repub on DU.

Yup. Yup. Yup.

[dennis4868]

33. the OP only posted the article from 538.com

which most people here like alot...Nate is a Dem....his site has a wealth of information about the state of the race...just because it may not be all positive does not mean the OP is a troll...CHILL OUT PEOPLE....

[Whalestoe]

37. No, we don't want to offend anyone! FUCK NATE! HE MUST BE A TROLL!

</sarcasm>

[HughMoran]

39. No, YOU RECOMMENDED THIS FOR THE GREATEST PAGE

It's not exactly a positive post from Nate - who I promote all the time here.

You didn't even read it before recommending it, did you??

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[Whalestoe]

41. Why should everything be positive to you?

I don't get your logic. Ignoring bad news makes it somehow not exist?

[HughMoran]

42. Bye

Bad news dwellers and promoters are not worth talking to.

[Whalestoe]

43. You can't answer my question, so you decide to ignore me.

Real grown up. You sure showed me!

[HughMoran]

38. Nothing wrong with the O/P

Why would you assume I had an issue with the O/P

Voting to put this on the Greatest Page - that's fucking moronic troll-like behavior IMO!

:wtf:

[amborin]

13. start

calling penn now

log onto the campaign website and volunteer to make calls

stop blogging and start calling

[Howardx]

16. what

are you doing here?

[Phoonzang]

19. Within 4 in Virginia?

Great. That's just great...

[alcibiades_mystery]

23. Wow...malik has desperately wanted Obama to lose since way back, so this must be heartening for mali

[malik flavors]

44. It's called tough love, my friend. Some people can deal with, and some can't.

[alcibiades_mystery]

46. It's called being a bitter fucking troll who does nothing but deflate

And being a total fucking sore loser asshole.

Everybody knows. It's OK.

[Smuckies]

24. I believe it. n/t

[high density]

25. So some undecideds are deciding on McCain...

Is that really so surprising?

[mrih]

36. I'm guessing those ones are the ones who don't like McCain

So they claim to be "undecided" in hopes the guy has a heart attack and a replacement is made, but.. seeing how that is not gonna be a reality, decide to vote for him anyways because they have a major issue with a Democrat getting elected.

[fiorello]

29. Oh crud! Obama's chance of winning Virginia is down to 92%....

and his chance of winning Colorado is only 91%. On the bright side, as an antidote to this scary news: Obama has a better chance of winning EITHER Colorado OR Virginia (in which case he wins the election) than McCain does of winning Georgia.

[DeeDeeNY]

40. Rachel Maddow, is that you?

But seriously, these polls don't change the big picture.