Zogby battleground polls 8-State Surveys: Obama Builds on Leads in OH & NV; Holds Margins in VA & PA

[HughMoran]

Reuters/Zogby Battleground 8-State Surveys: Obama Builds on Leads in OH & NV; Holds Margins in VA & PA



UTICA, New York - Reuters/Zogby telephone surveys of eight battleground states show Democrat Barack Obama in a very strong position to be elected President. The key findings in these polls show expanded Obama margins in Ohio and Nevada and continued leads in Pennsylvania and Virginia.


In the other states tested in this latest Reuters/Zogby package of state surveys, Florida, North Carolina and Missouri remain very close, while John McCain is holding his advantage in Indiana. Obama has leads of less than two points in Florida and Missouri, and McCain is ahead by the same margin in North Carolina.


Reuters/Zogby tested seven of these same states last week. Included this week was Pennsylvania, where McCain is making a major effort to win a state that went to the Democrats four years ago. West Virginia, where McCain had a 10-point lead last week, was not surveyed.


The surveys were conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 2. Sample sizes in each state ranged from 600-605, with a margin of error of +/-4.1%.

Here are the states where Obama leads, with each state's Electoral votes shown:

Pennsylvania (21)
Nov. 2

Obama
53.7%

McCain
40.0%

Other/Not Sure
6.3%


Obama trails McCain by just three points among white voters, and that is not enough of a lead for McCain. Obama is winning 98% of the African-American vote. The other keys are Obama's small lead among voters over age 65 and Catholics.

Ohio (20)
Nov. 2

Obama
50.2%


McCain
43.9%


Other/Not Sure
5.9%


Obama is now beating McCain among Independents, 60%-27%, an 18-point jump from last week. His other gain is among 18-29-year-olds, where he now leads by 30 points.

Virginia (13)
Nov. 2

Obama
50.7%

McCain
44.6%


Other/Not Sure
4.7%



McCain made a small gain among Independents, but still trails the demographic group by 15. Obama continues to do a few points better among his own party than McCain does with the GOP. McCain increased his lead among white voters, and is now up, 61%-34%. He needs more than that to overcome Obama's 94% among African-Americans.

Nevada (5)
Nov. 2


Obama
50.7%


McCain
42.9%


Other/Not Sure
6.4%



Obama made small gains with Independents (51%-33%) and men (46%-45%.) He trails by five with white voters, but Obama's three-to-one lead with Hispanics and 93% with the small African-American population give him a statewide lead outside the margin of error.

Florida (27)
Nov. 2

Obama
47.5


McCain
46.2


Other/Not Sure
6.4%



We found a two-point drop for Obama, but the dynamic of the race remains the same. Obama still holds a big lead with Independents, but McCain wins 89% of Republicans to Obama's 85% of Democrats. We found more undecided Democrats (4.6%) than Republicans (2.7%. ) McCain has a 13-point lead with white voters. Turnout and get out the vote efforts will decide Florida.

Missouri (11)
Nov. 2

Obama
47.4%

McCain
45.7%


Other/Not Sure
6.9%



McCain gained a bit among Independents, but still trails with them, 57%-28%. He also cut Obama's lead among Hispanics in half to eight points. Obama’s has reduced his losses among Democrats to 10% from 16% a week ago.

Here are the states where McCain leads, with each state's Electoral votes shown:

North Carolina (15)
Nov. 2

McCain
49.3%

Obama
47.7%


Other/Not Sure
3.1%



The lead has changed from a week ago. McCain increased his total among men from a week ago, from 46% to 53%. Obama is up seven points with Independents, but McCain is doing slightly better with Republicans than Obama is with Democrats. McCain rules in the western parts of the state, and Obama in the East and Raleigh-Durham area. Who will turn out in greater numbers: rural whites or African-Americans?

Indiana (11)
Nov. 2

McCain
49.1%


Obama
43.9%


Other/Not Sure
7.0%



There is just a one-point change from a week ago, but Obama has erased McCain’s six-point lead among Independents to gain a tie with them.

For a detailed methodological statement on this survey, please visit:

http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1373




http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1628

[Bicoastal]

1. Another party heard from--the averages will look good tomorrow...

...but DAMN they're divided on NC. I think we'll win it, but what do I know?

[mollymongold]

2. I know zogby is crap but I hope these are right....lol.

[HughMoran]

4. Me too

We can hope

[anonymous171]

3. lol zogby. I hope he's right when he has us ahead and hope he's wrong when he doesn't.

[Stagecoach]

5. The thing with Zogby and all these polls

Is we're at the moment where they're all mostly trying to get in line with the others. This is about credibility for future elections. These pollsters haven't got too many more days to get it right, if they want to be of any use for the mid-term elections in 2 years, and the next presidential election in 4 years. We're past throwing at a dart-board to come up with numbers.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Before people freak out and point to 2004. THESE ARE TELEPHONE SURVEYS!

The polls that had Kerry winning in 2004 were interactive online polls.

These are phone surveys, thus they are more credible.

[Jackinbox]

9. Thanks for that.

I was wondering. Because I don't trust Zogby's online polls.

[tpi10d]

7. Several of the big nationals are showing 9-12 point leads.

Gallup, etc. discussed here today.

If they're correct, these swing states essentially have to be opening up like this Zogby poll shows.

I can't see Ohio NV etc. in the margin of error if Gallup is forecasting a 55-44 national blowout.

Anyway my point here is, if the big nationals which show about 10 point lead are correct, I think this Zogby poll is in the ballpark-with the exception of FL.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Obama has banked a huge lead in a handful of states.

[tpi10d]

10. perhaps

But it runs counter to my gut feeling that if Obama performs 13 points better than Kerry, Ohio only performs 3 points better (or so).

I see tight battle grounds in the scenario where the election is 4 or 5 points for Obama (which could be).

[Drunken Irishman]

11. I think Ohio will go to Obama by about 5-7 points.

[WCGreen]

13. Yea but so has McCain...

So it pretty much evens out...

[Drunken Irishman]

14. Huh?

[WCGreen]

16. Here they are....

Alabama 23.3% 9
Idaho 39.0% 4
Kansas 20.0% 6
Kentucky 13.0% 8
Nebraska 18.7% 5
Oklahoma 29.0% 7
Tennessee 14.0% 11
Texas 13.0% 34
Utah 25.0% 5
Wyoming 21.0% 3
92

That's a hefty chunk of voters who are disproportional going for McCain.

Not as healthy as Obama but still enough to kind of even out the rough edges of a national poll...

[Drunken Irishman]

17. I'm talking about swing states.

Not states that would go McCain regardless.

[WCGreen]

18. I was referring to the large margins in the very red states that

would tend to skew the results of a national poll somewhat...

[Drunken Irishman]

19. Those are factored in too.

I'm sure.

[HughMoran]

12. Off to bed for me

I can't believe I've actually gotten some comfort from Zogby's polls!

[HughMoran]

20. Well, to bed @ 1:30 AM, back up at 7 AM

& on DU :D

[Glenda]

24. you need more sleep than that! n/t

[HughMoran]

25. Yeah I do

Hopefully I will sleep like a baby after tommorow's win :o)

[Blondiegrrl]

15. I think IN will go to McCain, but I think Obama will win NC. nt

[Tribetime]

21. you mean he's only winning by 14 in Pa. and 6 in Ohio

man dead intern joe is right it's bad news for Obama

[HughMoran]

23. "only"

:rofl:

Poor Joe!

[DCBob]

22. Wow. If these are for real, we are talking landslide.

:wow: