If you don't want to call me a concerned troll... don't come in... but I have a question...

[Northofyou]

I saw this news this morning: Big Early Vote Leads for McCain in Florida

They are going crazy about it in the Creepzone. I am sure it's bull, but can somebody explain why?

http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2008/10/31/big-early-vote-leads-for-mccain-in-florida/

Makes no sense to me...

[renie408]

1. So if I DO want to call you a concern troll, I should come in?

[Northofyou]

3. Heuuu ... well, I did not think about that possibility...

:-)

[seabeyond]

15. she is funny, isnt she. lol

wink

hey.... i think we will take florida. not gonna worry about it today. it is what it is. we will see tomororrow

[seabeyond]

14. funny. lol. n/t

[jakem]

2. meh.

[SoCalDem]

4. 3 letters

A-O-L

[Northofyou]

7. Ok... well, that must be it... But I wasn't sure

Especially that nowhere else can we see that news. Also, I just noticed that this article is dated Oct 31st... No wonder why they are still clinging to it on the dark side...

[Zombie2]

5. No doubt...

....it's AOL, what else would you expect?

[last1standing]

6. We may lose Florida.

Then again, we may not. It could be a faulty poll or it could just be that the older population of the state just couldn't get Obama's color, youth or the lies about him being Muslim.

I'll check on it and let you know for sure around 9:00pm EST tomorrow.

[Northofyou]

10. I really don't get that State (or Ohio for that matter)

I would love to see them shine in blue...

[last1standing]

18. Ohio is just a repub state.

Ohioans my vote for a Dem when the economy is really bad but for the most part the majority identifies with repubs because their parents did and their parents before them. It's just that kind of state. Well, that and the fact that much of southern OH could be annexed by Kentucky and no one would ever know the difference. :shrug:

Florida has a very old population that is more disposed to the beliefs and biases that most people under 65 have been shake off. There is still a lot of racism there. Also, the older Jewish population has been hit very hard by a disinformation campaign claiming that Obama is Muslim. Combine that with the traditionally republican Cuban population and it makes it a hard state for Democrats to win.

That's not to say we won't win one, or both, of these states. I'm just stating a few of our obstacles.

[...of J.Temperance]

28. Apart from Toledo and Cleveland

They are reliably Democratic areas.

Agreed that Southern Ohio is very similar to Kentucky.

[...of J.Temperance]

8. We can win WITHOUT Florida

We can EVEN win without Ohio.

Pennsylvania + Virginia....and that's the route.

[WinkyDink]

21. I just opined to my husband: The FIX might be in, but Obama and Dean went all out for 50 STATES!

HAHA! The Republicans didn't think to FIX ALL of THEM!

[...of J.Temperance]

22. Lol!

Well the way I see it, the only way they can steal it this time is if they steal eight states....that would be stealing Pennsylvania, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Florida and Virginia.

They got away with it last time, because the polls were closer, so they only had to steal one state.

You can't be behind in pretty much ALL of those states' polls and get away with stealing all EIGHT, and McCain would need ALL eight.

[DeeDeeNY]

9. 538.com: Obama's win percentage ticks upward again

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[Northofyou]

12. Almost at 90 on Intrade...

Was Intrade around in 2004?

[HughMoran]

17. Intrade just hit 90%

Looking good.

RCP updated to 6.9%, Pollster 7.2%

[Northofyou]

19. Can you imagine, I am not even a US citizen, but I am hoping for an OBAMA win as if my life depended

on it... Please guys... Throw the Repigs into oblivion... please... :-)

[jakem]

26. it might. i think McCain has been eyeing a bombing run on Canada-

[Northofyou]

27. Oh noes!!!

But but but Sarah is me next door neighbor? How can they do that to us??? Now I am really afraid... :-)

[jakem]

31. i will do my part to protect you, but i am but one man!

(and, fwiw, he is not much of a pilot!)

[1corona4u]

11. Total bullshit.

Florida;
(in-person & absentee returned) html Election Code 9250

Total votes cast as of today; 4,107,894
Party
Dem 45.5%
Rep 37.6%


No/Oth 16.9% 15.8%
Ballot
Absentee 38.6%
In-person 61.4%


AOL would have to put some dems in the mcpuke column for that to be true, and that's just NOT happening.

[Jennicut]

29. Thanks Corona! I thought Dems had an early voting advantage in all

the states where it takes place.

[Recursion]

30. With respect, that's exactly what they say is happening

They're polling actual early voters and that's the answer they're getting. I've been suspicious of assuming registered Democrat = Obama voter all through early voting.

[Lasher]

13. RCP shows Obama up by and average of 2.5% in FL

Check it out here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html

Edit: ElectoralVote.com has him up by 3 in that state.

[muriel_volestrangler]

16. Meh - this was a poll taken a week ago, and released last Wednesday

Both candidates have begun locking down some of their supporters in early voting in these two battlegrounds. Among poll respondents who already have voted in Ohio, Obama has a big lead: 57% to 35%. But McCain is slightly ahead in Florida among early-voting respondents, 49% to 45%.

http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la-na-poll29-2008oct29,0,1517809.story

I don't think anyone is expecting Ohio to go 57% to 35% for Obama, either. The people who vote early will not be a representative sample. Note, for instance, that up until Tuesday 28th, Florida polls were only open for 8 hours a day: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/10/28/crist_extends_early_voting_hou.html

which could easily mean a higher turnout for those who can vote in the middle of the day, such as retired people, which is a demographic that McCain is more likely to do better in. It's not possible to read that much into early voting results, really.

[Zynx]

20. Because the Dems have an 8-point lead in voting there so far when Bush had

about a 3 point lead in 2004. That's a big swing.

[Lerkfish]

23. you guys are still here?

must suck to be you.

[Northofyou]

24. Hello to you too

I am French Canadian (small city south of Montreal). Been following your elections since 2000. Been lurking here and at the Freepzone (no to much this year, it's nasty over there) for a while.

I am really hoping for an Obama win. Make the World proud and vote for Obama!

(By the way, I am glad I posted my question, I got all the answers I wanted)

[progressiveforever]

25. Florida is the one place they can get advantage by some early votes