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No Passaran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 05:50 PM
Original message
STATE BY STATE EXIT POLLS
STATE BY STATE EXIT POLLS

VIRGINIA -- POLL CLOSE: 7:00 PM

-- 22% of the vote is African American and Obama is winning 91% of it.
-- Among white voters, 58% are backing McCain, while 41% are supporting Obama. In 2004, Kerry won 32% of the vote here while Bush won 68% of it.
-- 72% disapprove of the job Bush is doing; only 27% approve.
-- More than half of voters think McCain will continue Bush's policies; fewer think he will take the country in a different direction.
-- Obama is winning the support of both men and women, but white men and white women are backing McCain.
-- Among whites, one in five said race was a factor in their vote today and they backed Mccain.
-- More blacks (4 in 10) said race was a factor and they voted overwhelmingly for Obama.
-- Obama looks to be improving on Kerry's margins in Northern Virginia.
-- Most voters say McCain as the candidate on the attack: nearly 7 in 10 say he attacked Obama unfairly; fewer than half say Obama attacked McCain unfairly.

INDIANA -- POLL CLOSE: 7:00 PM

-- The economy is the top issue here (as it is nationally) and Obama appears to be benefitting from that. Among economy voters, Obama 56% to 43%.
-- White working class (those without a college degree and earn less than $50K) are backing Obama slightly over McCain by 51% to 48%.
-- Men are divided in their support, while Obama has the advantage with women.
-- 42% of voters are white evangelicals, up from 35% in 2004. McCain is getting 68% of their support. Bush captured 77% of the vote in 2004.
-- 35% of voters in IN were looking for a candidate who could bring about change, while almost as many (33%) were looking for someone who shares their values. The change voters are supporting Obama, while the values voters are supporting McCain.

GEORGIA -- POLL CLOSE: 7:00 PM

-- 30% of voters are African American (up from 25% in 2004) and 97% are backing Obama.
-- Whites are backing McCain by about the same margin they supported Bush in 2004.
-- The top candidate quality was values, closely followed by change. Those who selected values as the most important quality backed McCain, while the change voters supported Obama.

NORTH CAROLINA -- POLL CLOSE: 7:30 PM

-- 22% of voters were African American (26% in 2004) and Obama is getting 97% of their vote. As expected, an improvement on Kerry's performance four years ago.
-- White voters are backing McCain by 62% to 37%.
-- 11% of voters in NC are new voters, voting for the first time this year, they too have the economy on their minds and 3 in 4 of them are backing Obama.
-- Change and values are nearly tied for the #1 quality. Obama wins the change people, while McCain takes the values people.

OHIO -- POLL CLOSE: 7:30 PM

-- 86% are worried about the direction of the economy, including more than half who are very worried. (Obama is getting the support of those worried voters.)
-- Hillary Clinton won the primary here, and Obama is getting the support of 82% of Democrats who backed her in that contest. 16% are backing McCain.
-- 12% of voters in Ohio are black, up from 10% in 2004. 98% of them are backing Obama.
-- Both white women and white women are going for McCain.
-- More voters see view Obama has a candidate who is in touch with people like them, while more voters see McCain has having the experience to serve effectively as president.
-- Still, 4 in 10 Ohio voters think Obama's positions on the issues are too liberal.

PENNSYLVANIA -- POLL CLOSE: 8:00 PM

-- A quarter of voters in PA are white Catholics and they are splitting their votes. Kerry lost these voters to Bush by 48% to 52%.
-- Seniors are one-fifth of the electorate and just over half are backing Obama. These voters narrowly backed Kerry by 51% to 48% in 2004.
-- Obama is getting about two-thirds of the support of voters age 18-29. Kerry won 60% of them in 2004.
-- Most voters in the Keystone state made up their minds long ago, but among those who decided in the last week (just over 1 in 10 voters), they are narrowly backing McCain by 51% to 47%.

FLORIDA -- POLL CLOSE: 8:00 PM

-- 13% of voters here were Hispanics (15% in 2004) and they are breaking for Obama by 55% to 45%. This is a reversal from 2004 when Hispanics backed Bush by 56% to 44%.
-- Seniors (24% of voters) are backing McCain over Obama by 53% 46%. In 2004 Bush edged out Kerry by 51% to 48%.
-- 13% of voters are African American in Florida and they and 95% are backing Obama.
-- White men and white women are backing McCain.
-- McCain wins on experience here, while more voters see Obama as being more in touch with people like them.

MISSOURI -- POLL CLOSE: 8:00 PM

-- Young voters (19% of voters) are backing Obama; while seniors (17% of voters) give McCain the edge.
-- White evangelical are 38% of the vote in Missouri and they are backing McCain by 67% to 32%. Not as strong a showing as Bush in 2004.
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Lakerstan Donating Member (599 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 05:51 PM
Response to Original message
1. Link?
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No Passaran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 05:54 PM
Original message
HuffPo
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beachmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 06:04 PM
Response to Original message
16. What's your take on Georgia? What is missing is the non-white/black demo,
mainly Latinos and Asians. In what percentage did they turn up and who did they vote for? Disappointing to see the white vote did not budge.
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No Passaran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 06:05 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. On national numbers
Asians and Latinos back Obama in huge numbers
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Swede Atlanta Donating Member (906 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 06:11 PM
Response to Reply #16
22. But remember
As of this morning over 20% of Georgia voters had already voted and it appears that the vast majority of those "early voters" that include early and advanced voting and absentees are believed to be Democrats. I was one of them. I didn't want to stand in line today plus voting absentee let me Google and get information on a few of the less prominent races before I voted.
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knowledgeispwr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 05:52 PM
Response to Original message
2. Blacks were 18% of vote in NC in 2004. 26% is an erroneous number. n/t
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democrattotheend Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 05:52 PM
Response to Original message
3. African American turnout in VA was 21% in 2004
So 22% is not too encouraging. Kerry won the black vote in Virginia 87-12. But maybe more African Americans voted early this year...I hope.
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No Passaran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 05:53 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. That and White vote
is higher for Barack this year than it was for Kerry in 2004
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mollymongold Donating Member (350 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 05:55 PM
Response to Reply #3
8. but he's winning the whtie vote but a lot more.
on surveyusa they had the black vote at about that and it has him up 4
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 05:58 PM
Response to Reply #3
11. He narrowed the white margin by a huge amount though.
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regnaD kciN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 05:53 PM
Response to Original message
4. While this is interesting...
...check out FiveThirtyEight.com for an explanation as to why one should not set too much store on exit poll reports. (For example, in the primaries, Obama did around 7% worse in the actual results than in the leaked exit poll numbers.) But, after 2004, I suspect people around here already know that.

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beachmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 06:06 PM
Response to Reply #4
18. I think exits are fine for analyzing demographic info. Just not
outright exit polls of who they voted for in total. I look at these polls, and I still don't know what is going to happen.
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1corona4u Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 05:54 PM
Response to Original message
6. I don't know why people are posting these....
they don't include early voting, so I don't think they are going to be accurate.
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beachmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 06:08 PM
Original message
Actually, they do include early voting. But we don't know how good it is.
Again, any outright exit poll results should be absolutely ignored (like Drudge's blaring headline). But demographic analysis I think is fine.
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TrogL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 05:54 PM
Response to Original message
7. Both white women and white women are going for McCain.
:wtf:

People do strange things in Ohio
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Fluffdaddy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 05:55 PM
Response to Original message
9. Please stop the EXIT POLLS Stuff.....They are useless right now
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Motown_Johnny Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 05:58 PM
Response to Original message
10. Ummmm..... is it me or does that VA data look great to you?
Edited on Tue Nov-04-08 06:03 PM by Motown_Johnny
91% of 22% is about 20%

41% of 78% is about 32%

So we have about 52% of the vote in VA? (if this data is accurate that is)


edit for math error. I used 88% when I should have used 78%
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Schulzz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 06:00 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. If VA data is true, this is over.
Obama is winning the support of both men and women, but white men and white women are backing McCain.
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No Passaran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 06:00 PM
Response to Reply #10
13. It looks that way
Not including 10% of early voters (including mine)
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 06:01 PM
Response to Original message
14. I Punched In The Numbers By Race In VA And Get 52% For Obama
91% x 22% =20%

41% X 78% =32%
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Schulzz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 06:03 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. The most important thing about VA: "Obama is winning the support of both men and women"
But I will wait for real results...
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 06:08 PM
Response to Reply #14
20. Also, the white vote is less than that because about 5% is Hispanic and Asian.
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Motown_Johnny Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 06:08 PM
Response to Reply #14
21. FL looks good here too... the 10% flip in hispanic vote turns into about 2% net gain for us
I am just doing this crap in my head.. feel free to correct my math
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NashVegas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 06:12 PM
Response to Reply #14
24. That 78 May Be High
According to this - http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/51000.html

White persons, percent definition and source info White persons, percent, 2006 (a) 73.3% 80.1%
Black persons, percent definition and source info Black persons, percent, 2006 (a) 19.9% 12.8%
American Indian and Alaska Native persons, percent definition and source info American Indian and Alaska Native persons, percent, 2006 (a) 0.3% 1.0%
Asian persons, percent definition and source info Asian persons, percent, 2006 (a) 4.8% 4.4%
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, percent definition and source info Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, percent, 2006 (a) 0.1% 0.2%
Persons reporting two or more races, percent definition and source info Persons reporting two or more races, percent, 2006 1.6% 1.6%
Persons of Hispanic or Latino origin, percent definition and source info Persons of Hispanic or Latino origin, percent, 2006 (b) 6.3% 14.8%
White persons not Hispanic, percent definition and source info White persons not Hispanic, percent, 2006 67.7% 66.4%
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underpants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 06:06 PM
Response to Original message
19. Looks good in Va
Yaaaay~!
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ecstatic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 06:11 PM
Response to Original message
23. Do the NC stats include early voting numbers? nt
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Phoonzang Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 06:13 PM
Response to Reply #23
25. Nope. nt
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wildflower Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 06:17 PM
Response to Original message
26. "Both white women and white women are going for McCain."
Wow. :)
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