Turning Missouri Blue: Rural and Urban Focus

[usregimechange]

Congratulations fellow progressives on turning Missouri Blue! I
have been busy crunching the numbers in hopes of understanding how we
did it. A lot of media attention has been given to the idea that
McCaskill's rural strategy paid off but this ignores several other
important facts.

Summary

Democratic victory in Missouri came primarily from the following
three factors:

• Strong Kansas City base turnout
• Improved results in St. Louis County
• Improved rural results

Analysis

McCaskill did do much better than Kerry in rural areas. Kerry won
only 4 Missouri counties whereas McCaskill won 25 counties. When a
Democrat wins only 4 of 115 counties, urban turnout just doesn't cut
it. The McCaskill folks were right; Democrats must do better in
rural Missouri in order to win. Yet it is not quite accurate to
compare presidential and non-presidential elections. (see the graphic
at the bottom)

In 2002 Incumbent Senator Jean Carnahan won 26 counties, one more
than McCaskill, but she lost the election. In fact, Carnahan did
better than Claire in many non-urban counties. So what are we
missing?

During election night I was watching the votes come in with members
of the Democratic Underground who mostly live in other states and
had no idea about the geopolitical landscape of Missouri. They were
very disappointed that McCaskill was losing throughout much of the
night by a fairly consistent 6% statewide. I was watching not just
the total numbers but where those numbers were coming from. Almost
none of them were coming from Jackson County (Kansas City) or St.
Louis county/city. When about 50% of Jackson County came in, we
went from 6% behind to slightly ahead in about 1 second.

In 2002 Jean Carnahan won 61% of the vote in Jackson County. Claire
won about the same 62%. Carnahan obtained a 47,602 vote advantage
statewide from Jackson County. Claire obtained a 61,558 vote
advantage! The extra 1% does not account for it, good Kansas City
voter turnout made the difference! However, Claire won the state by
about 46,000 votes, so the impressive Kansas City turnout doesn't
account for all of the improvement.

Democrats always do the best percentage wise in St. Louis city.
Claire won it by 79% adding an extra 56,223 vote advantage
statewide. Carnahan won St. Louis city by 77%, an extra 53,835 vote
advantage. That is better but only by less than 3,000 votes. St.
Louis County had a much greater impact.

St. Louis County is a part of the St. Louis metro area (although not
in "St. Louis City") and contains over a million people. In every
election in recent history this county always goes to the Democrats
but at a much smaller percentage than St. Louis city. Claire did
significantly better in St. Louis County than Carnahan. Claire won
the county by 55% compared to Carnahan's 51%. A 4% increase in St.
Louis County is huge in terms of vote total. Carnahan gained a
14,868 vote advantage in 2002 but Claire gained a 49,329 statewide
vote advantage!

If you add the vote advantage increases from 2002 to 2006 in Jackson
Co and St. Louis County alone you get extra 48,417 votes than
Carnahan obtained in 2002. That is more than the total number of
votes that Claire won by in 2006.

At the same time, Kerry in 04 did as well in St. Louis County and
still lost. The urban vote by itself doesn't do the trick but it
sure helps!

Conclusion

Rural turnout is important to Democratic victories in Missouri but
so is metro turnout. Clearly, some balance between rural and metro
areas is warranted. The McCaskill campaign may not have balanced
this perfectly but hey, they won, so who am I to complain?

[loudestchick]

1. nice analysis. Thanks.