OPENLEFT logically explains the NH vote (posted elsewhere, but a must read if you missed it)

[Harper_is_Bush]

What The Hell Happened Last Night?
by: Chris Bowers
Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 15:29:21 PM EST

Was it massive polling error? Were women motivated by a double standard imposed on Clinton for showing emotion? Was it the Wilder / Bradley effect, where white voters lie about supporting African-American candidates to pollsters out of perceived social pressure? Was it something else? Twelve public polling organizations were in the field in New Hampshire entirely after the Iowa caucuses. One of these organizations concluded interviews on Saturday, January 5th. Seven concluded interviews on Sunday, January 6th. Four concluded interviews on Monday, January 7th.. The average of the final results from these pollsters is as follows:

Obama: 37.25%
Clinton: 29.92%
Edwards: 18.92%
Richardson: 5.75%

Now, compare this to the results, with only one precinct outstanding
Clinton: 38.99% (+9.07, +30.3%)
Obama: 36.39% (-0.86, -2.3%)
Edwards: 16.91% (-2.01, -10.6%)
Richardson: 4.60% (-1.15, -20.0%)

http://openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3156

He goes on to provide 5 reasons that make perfect sense.

Also note the swing from the final polls to final results was 10 points, not 18 like I saw being claimed elsewhere here.

[Harper_is_Bush]

1. Two recs, no comment.

Are people scared of the conspiracy theists? :)

[Harper_is_Bush]

2. three recs now, and no comment.

The conspiracy croud has sent a chill through the dusty halls of DU!

[anamandujano]

3. The comments are also interesting

a good read

[Leopolds Ghost]

4. Only one (Wilder / Bradley effect) is sufficient & is the reason privately stated by polling firms

No other argument or "conspiracy theory" is needed and only muddles the issue. As if there's no racism in New Hampshire (ever heard of "Mass-holes"? the busing riots in Boston Mass? Many of those folks moved to NH in disgust. I am sure their kids imagine themselves to be quite free of racial hangups thanks to the Clinton economy and the remarkable dearth of blacks in their particular Boston exurbs.)

[HughMoran]

5. That was an intersting read - thanks for posting

It was more like 7 reasons combined in the end.

[FlyingSquirrel]

6. I think the reason for no comment..

is that the mods have determined that this discussion is not appropriate for General Discussion at this time.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4021441

[OneBlueSky]

7. "Clinton got a perfect storm, drawing on as many as seven different factors" . . .

in my experience, very few things in life are "perfect," be they political storms or otherwise . . . I just don't buy it . . .

[JackRiddler]

8. Why, this is a plausible hypothesis.

So let it and all other hypothesis be put to the empirical test. Let any question be settled by a full recount of all paper ballots in the state, with establishment of chain of custody and investigation of any anomalies discovered, until all questions are resolved. Let us know, not believe. Let us not even believe what is likely or smart. Let us know. We deserve to know, know, know.

[K Gardner]

9. My sentiments exactly. Anything else is mere conjecture. And our elections shouldn't

be subject to conjecture. Good article :-)