Got your favorites for the Derby on Saturday???

[a kennedy]

I'm going with the woman....."Devil May Care" and hope Mr. Todd Pletcher can win it this time. :thumbsup:

[Condem]

1. Paddy O'Prado.

Got to root for the Iowa nag.

[Earth Bound Misfit]

2. I haven't capped the race, nor have I been paying attention

to the preps. What happened to this year's "next Secretariat"....Eskendereya? Man, Pletcher's really snakebit in this race--John Velazquez too. Johnnie V deserves his first Derby win even more than Pletcher, IMO, and this is two yrs in a row he had a live mount in the Derby scratched late (Quality Road last year).

I'm due to pick the winner, my last one was Sea Hero, Jerry Bailey & Mack Miller, @ odds of 13 or 14 to 1.

Edit to add: Andy Beyer's look at the field: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/sports/HorseRacing/Derby2010/derbypreview.html

[Awsi Dooger]

4. What a mess

Literally. It's expected to be an off track.

Thanks for the link to Beyer's summary.

I don't have much of a clue at this point. Eskendereya looked like much the best. I wasn't planning to handicap this race since it seemed so clear cut until he developed problems.

Now the two favorites have unbelievably drawn post #1 and post #20. Plenty of speed but it's not overwhelming speed, merely mediocre horses with a tendency to go to the front.

I know one thing, it's a field with some of the most deplorable names ever. If Mission Impazible wins this thing I may boycott my annual tradition of rattling off every Derby winner dating to 1875.

My little niece is named Sydney and she's excited about Sidney's Candy as a contender, even if it's not the same spelling. :)

[Condem]

5. Here's hoping for a Triple Crown Winner, Awsi.

The sport could use it. Waiting for two gun sid to reveal his thoughts.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. I thought Eskendereya had a chance

His speed figures were terrific this year.

But there could still be a chance. I don't think Lookin at Lucky will be completely compromised by the 1 hole. I'd rather be there than Sidney's Candy on the far outside. Big Brown dominated the race from #20 but Sidney doesn't have that type of burst or talent gap over the field.

Lookin at Lucky was shuffled back in the Juvenile when he broke from outside post #13 and the two horses inside him broke well. He struggled outside in mid pack for most of the race then closed with a burst, nearly prevailing. A lesser horse wouldn't have contended.

On a dry track I'd have to think Lookin at Lucky and Noble's Promise have enough class to be there at the end. They are consistently impressive, very little separating them. But I'm not sure about the monkey wrench of an off track, and reports indicate it could be very wet.

I don't know much about the filly. Gut instinct tells me we've had too many big efforts from fillies recently and one is due to disappoint.

[Earth Bound Misfit]

6. UR welcome re: Beyer's summary.

:-)

Looks pretty wide open. While I agree with your what a mess description of the race--with the expected off-track monkey wrench thrown in--I've made some pretty good scores in these types of races. The Go For Gin Derby in '94 was one in particular, and it was a handed to me by someone whose name I never knew and who I can't remember what he looks like.

Here's what happened. On the wednesday before the derby, my "track buddy" and I were at Belmont Park, something we did about once a month for a few years (we were both off from work on Wednesdays). Now my buddy grew up literally in Aqueduct's back yard & knew a lot of racing wise guys. Just before the 8th race, somebody wearing a ball cap and windbreaker with something like Nick Zito Racing or Zito Stable...I can't remember exactly what it read, but clearly someone in Zito's barn... approaches my friend. They're longtime friends. My friend never introduces me, but they begin talking and soon enough the Derby subject comes and this guy whose name I never knew said something that I'll never forget--...If the track comes up sloppy, go to the windows and empty your pockets, empty your bank accounts, mortgage your house and bet on "Gin"....

When the track came up sloppy that day, even though I didn't bet Gin to win (I liked Brocco) I did throw in a few "action" bets keying Gin on top of my 4 "key" horses--Brocco, Strodes Creek, Blumin Affair and Soul of the Matter with Brocco as my Win bet and keyed on top. When Gin won, with my 4 horses running 2-3-4-5, I found myself holding a winning $3 exacta ticket and a $2 trifecta winner. The exacta came back at about $180, and the tri paid about $2500, IIRC. KA-CHING! HELLO 3 GRAND! Thank you, man whose name I never knew!

Maybe this is a sign. I'm gonna play Zito's Jackson Bend on top in a few action bets, who knows? Beyer certainly gives him more than a shot:

JACKSON BEND | Trainer: Nick Zito | Jockey: Mike Smith
15-1

Got into the field because of late defections by others, and he deserves to be in. Zito trainee has never been worse than second in nine career starts.

[Earth Bound Misfit]

7. Hmmm....Interesting.

Gonna look into Jackson Bend's pedigree, see if anything comes up as far as an off-track is concerned. He drew a good post and he's got Mike Smith riding.

http://www.ntra.com/content/display/news/NDU0NTI=

"Jackson Bend certainly deserves to run. I say that with conviction because he was second twice to that great horse," said Zito, referring to Jackson Bends's runner-up finishes to Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth and the Wood Memorial.

[bread_and_roses]

3. hurrah, a Derby thread! I've been watching for one

I don't "handicap" - my "picks" are all preference. This year I like a lot of them but none have really captured my imagination. I'll still enjoy the Derby, so no matter.

[Earth Bound Misfit]

9. Gary Stevens was interviewed by Al Roker on Today this morning

He said he's never seen a Derby as wide open as this one, especially because of the possibility of an off-track. He hinted that there's only 4 or 5 "throw outs" and gives 15 of the 20 a "possibility" of winning.

He likes the horses who can stalk the early speed and close in the last 1/8 mile (DUUUHHH!! like most derby winners) such as Awesome Act, whom he touted, but said "don't be surprised" if we get another 50-1 shot winner.