"It could happen almost any time now. We now have the technological capability to identify Earth-like planets around the smallest stars."
David Latham -Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics
Last week a 21st-century miles was reached: Planet hunters discovered the 500th planet beyond our solar system. To be sure, the vast majority are hot, Jupiter-sized planets that would dwarf the Earth and are almost certainly lifeless. Over the past 15 years, the count of these extrasolar worlds, has soared from single digits to the dozens and then into the hundreds. The pace of discovery is now so rapid that the number of identified planets leaped from 400 to 500 entries in just over a year.
The "book" of exo planet discoveries is being compiled and maintained by Jean Schneider, an astronomer at the Paris Observatory, who since 1995 has maintained The Extrasolar Planets Encyclopaedia of known exoplanets as well as those that are unconfirmed or controversial. Schneider advises caution about celebrating the 500th milestone as there is no consensus on what is a planet and what is a brown dwarf. In an interview with Scientific American, he says: "We don't know exactly where the planets stop and the brown dwarfs start on the mass scale. In addition, the mass scale is not a good criterion. So there is some fuzziness there."
"I think that radial velocity measurements will provide several hundred to a few thousand planets and no more," Schneider added, discussing his view of future discoveries. "Astrometric measurements, and in particular the GAIA mission, are expected to provide a few thousand planets by astrometry, because they are surveying one billion stars. As for microlensing, if a mission like WFIRST is finally launched in 2020, they could have, say, a few hundred planets. Direct imaging will provide certainly more than one hundred but not more than a few hundred, because with direct imaging you cannot go very far away in the galaxy. And the Kepler mission will provide many, at least several tens, of Earth-size planets in the habitable zone of their parent star.
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