"The Republican party...is in complete disarray. The best financed candidate just fell on his face."

[ProSense]

Where We Are

By Josh Marshall

It's always hard to explain in advance, particularly to people who aren't political junkies, just how it is that a victory in a small and not very representative state like Iowa can powerfully shape the race going forward. Why does someone in Florida or New Hampshire or New Mexico care one way or another what people in Iowa do? But you're already beginning to see it.

Some of it is simply crowd instinct. We're social creatures. Victory is attractive, especially if you don't have clear commitments -- ideological or partisan -- going in. But there's something more than that too.

Barack Obama's speech sounds very different now that he's talking from a position of political strength, rather than where things were a few months ago, when he seemed like he was getting lapped by Hillary. And let's face it, it was quite a speech. It made me think again of 2004.

The difference is even more striking and perhaps more realistic with Romney. Purely for my own reasons, I would have liked Romney to do better tonight, because I think he'd be a very weak national candidate. Rudy's already toast. Trailing Ron Paul tonight was just a confirmation of that. He's not even relevant. With Romney though, he spent tons, tons of money, absolutely put his all in to Iowa and he got smoked by Huckabee who barely spent anything by comparison.

On various levels, Romney put his all into Iowa. And he got thumped.

McCain had a pretty poor night tonight, coming in fourth behind the comatose Fred Thompson. But let's not kid ourselves. Romney took a big blow tonight. And if he can't come back strong in New Hampshire his collapse will be McCain's gain -- not because McCain's on fire or has any money or really is in any kind of strong position by most objective measures. The truth, though, is that there's simply no one left. It ain't Thompson; ain't Rudy. You can't say Huckabee's out of it but put me down with those that just don't think he can overcome the twin hurdles of a) running amongst more moderate and cosmopolitan Republican electorates and b) running against almost the entire GOP establishment. And that leaves you with McCain.

The truth is that the Republican party tonight is in complete disarray. The best financed candidate just fell on his face. Their big winner of the evening is opposed by almost the entire establishment of his party. The frontrunner of recent months is lost down in Florida shakily repeating '9/11' under his breath like a hobo who needs a stiff drink.

more

[speedoo]

1. I think Josh has it right.

As usual, of course.

[C_U_L8R]

2. It's the final throes for them.

blub blub blub
drowning in their own bathtub.
gop down the drain they go.

[Ganja Ninja]

3. Can we change their name to the Evangelical Christian Party now?

That's the only part of it that seem unified.

[ProSense]

4. Kick! n/t