Which S.C. candidate has the supporters most likely to turn out today? McCain or Hucklebee?

[bluestateguy]

It's snowing today in S.C., and I'm wondering who has the supporters who will walk through the snow to vote for their man. McCain has some independents (though I spose a lot of them will instead vote next week for Obama in the Democratic contest), and independents are notoriously fickle and frankly less likely to vote. Hucklebee has evangelicals on his side, and they may see themselves as commanded by God to vote for Hucklebee, which would overcome any concerns about the snow. On the other hand, maybe McCain's lead in the polls is strong enough that he can overcome these phenomena.

[skipos]

1. Very big move away from McCain and towards Huckabee on intrade.com

in the last hours. McCain used to be favored, but not anymore. I think people feel the bible thumper crew will come out and vote no matter what.

[saltpoint]

5. Hi, skipos. It feels to me that your take is a very good read on the situation.

The intrade.com people are using real money, and real money is real money.

It's going to be a freak show to watch Huckabee try to get the GOP nomination when the heavy-hitters who run the show can't stand him. The fundie vote is in the balance and they can't squash him like a bug without offending them and they can't win the White House without pandering to them.

[skipos]

8. I have money on Huckabee for the nomination

but I actually don't think he will win it. I bought him back when everyone was ignoring him, and plan on selling him soon.
Huckabee has proven to do really shitty in non-bible thumper states, 10% ish in NH and 17% ish in MI. I think he will narrowly win SC, but the fact that he isn't blowing it out there tells me he has a very narrow base. I don't see Huckabee picking up voters from any candidate who drops out. After Iowa, I thought Huckabee would strategically try to broaden his base by talking less about Jesus, but he has actually done the opposite.

[saltpoint]

9. You are all over this, and I think you're right on. I expected him to keep

the lid on Jesus too after Iowa, but my god he's trumpeting it from the rooftops.

He's a scary individual.

[BlueManDude]

2. McCain's strength will be the Northeast and West - like a Democrat.

that's why he'll be tough to beat in November. He'll be seriously competitive in places like PA, NJ and even NY (Rudy's barely beating him there right now).

[Seen the light]

3. Obviously the Huckster

And McCain doesn't have a strong lead in the SC polls anyway. I saw Huckabee leading in one of them just yesterday.

[skipos]

6. It is best to look at the averages of polls, imo

and even that method can be bad (NH). McCain leads in most polls, and the poll that Huckabee leads in is an ARG poll. They have been really inaccurate so far. They predicted a big Hillary win in IA and a big Obama win in NH.

Look at the collection of polls here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_primary-233.html#polls

Regardless, I give the Huckster and edge because of the weather.

[saltpoint]

4. Good question. I fear the Huckabee groundswell and feel it may overtake

Bush-huggin' McCain in South Carolina.

S. Carolina just doesn't seem like McCain's best venue. Bush/Rove et al smeared him disgracefully in 2000 there and of course this year the fundie nutbags are loose and likely registered to vote in large numbers.

Possibly Romney will have a good day in Nevada and Gov. Huckabee will win in S. Carolina, which is not good for the country if it happens since Huckabee is unstable and Romney is inhuman.

[Johonny]

7. if you were a McCain dirty trickster

wouldn't you paint a door on a wall in the voting room and instruct Huckabee voters over to it. When they complain they can't get in, explain if god wanted you to vote for Huckabee that door would open.

[napi21]

10. I suspect Huck, but I'm more interested to see how many of these

nuts actually vote today because of the snow! I used to live in Greenville, but now live in N. Ga. It's snowing here right now, and I just checked the weather report of Greenville. They're to have snow beginning at 9AM and acumulating to about 2" by afternoon. If you ever lived there, you'd realize what THAT means. NOBODY goes out their door!

[TwilightGardener]

11. Hope it's the Huckster, although he makes me ill. He'd be easier to

beat than McCain, and a win for him will keep things unsettled and cause MAJOR heartburn in the GOP.