Is Indiana a swing state in 2008

[Juche]

Having been born and raised in Indiana I have mostly resigned myself to it being a GOP stronghold and when I donate money to politicians or voter drives, I usually try to donate to ones that affect swing states or districts.

But before 2006 Indiana, with its 9 house districts, had a 7-2 majority for the GOP. After 2006 midterms and speical elections the dems now hold 5 of our 9 house districts. Three districts have swung from GOP to dem here.

And now I am looking at the precinct reports. With 54% of the vote in about 644k votes have been cast in the dem primary. Extrapolate those numbers and you get roughly 1.2 million votes that will be cast in the primary.

In 2004 Bush had about 1.5 million votes here. In between the hopefuly higher turnout in November, the disgust with McCain and the fact that we now have a majority of dem representatives could Indiana be a swing state in 2008?

Or will Obama & Hillary's supporters not support the other candidate, and/or are some of the voters today just GOP members trying to screw up the election. My brother's wife is doing that, voting Hillary to stop Obama today.

[skipos]

1. IN will only be a swing state in a LBJ-like landslide

Bill Clinton won every state that borders IN easily, and Dole and GHW Bush won IN easily. No Dem is going to win any state that was once controlled by the KKK.

[Juche]

2. Surely you jest

Kerry won about 1 million votes in 2004, including mine. This is compared to the 1.5 million won by Bush in 2004.

Consider that about 1.2 million will vote in the dem primary, turnout in November will likely be higher than the primary, many GOPers are disgusted by McCain (my dad voted Paul and my family is talking about voting libertarian this year) so votes will be suctioned off of the GOP by apathy, disgust or 3rd parties.

So I think its possible. But its hard to predict right now.

What I'd love to see is if we can somehow make Texas a swing state. The GOP will shit its pants if we can pull that off.

[skipos]

5. Then get yourself to intrade and make some dough

The odds of IN going blue are currently about 1:4. I haven't seen a general election poll that has IN close at all.

[wuushew]

3. No

n/t

[EmeraldCityGrl]

4. We have yet to fully witness what Obama does best...

He'll heal and unite the party and then do the same for this nation. Of this I have no doubt.
I wish those that have worked with him in Illinois spoke more about this.

[AndyTiedye]

6. Indiana Went Democratic 4 Times in the Past 100 Years

2 of them were for FDR in the depths of the Great Depression.
one for Woodrow Wilson
and one for LBJ. That's it.