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tiptoe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Nov-04-08 01:13 AM Original message |
11/03 FINAL ELECTION MODEL (TIA): OBAMA 367 EV; State-54.3% Natl-54.1%; MAY EC MODEL PROJECTED 54.1% |
2008 ELECTION MODEL A Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Updated: November 3 Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update 2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer
15-Poll End Sample Poll NATIONAL MODEL Pre Undecided Voter Allocation 5-Poll Mov Avg 2-Party Projection (60% UVA) 5-Poll Mov Avg Trend Research2k Gallup Zogby Hotline/FD Rasmussen ABC/WP Battleground NBC/WSJ CNN Pew CBS Marist FOX News Ipsos Pew Registered V vs Likely V Poll Averages Date 11/02 11/02 11/02 11/02 11/02 11/02 10/30 11/02 11/01 11/01 10/31 10/29 10/29 10/27 10/26 Size 1100 LV 2847 RV 1201 LV 882 LV 3000 LV 2446 RV 1000 LV 1011 LV 1017 LV 2587 RV 1005 LV 543 LV 924 LV 831 LV 1325 RV RV avg LV avg Total 2-party MoE 2.95% 1.84% 2.83% 3.30% 1.79% 1.98% 3.10% 3.08% 3.07% 1.93% 3.09% 4.21% 3.22% 3.40% 2.69% Obama 51 52 51 50 51 54 49 51 51 49 54 50 47 50 52 51.75 50.45 50.80 54.20 McCain 44 41 44 45 46 42 45 43 43 42 41 43 44 45 36 40.25 43.91 42.93 45.80 Other 5 7 5 5 3 4 6 6 6 9 5 7 9 5 12 8.00 5.64 6.27 0.00 Spread 7 11 7 5 5 12 4 8 8 7 13 7 3 5 16 11.50 6.55 7.87 8.39 Obama 51.1 51.1 51.0 50.7 51.3 51.1 50.1 50.3 50.4 50.7 51.1 50.4 50.9 51.3 51.6 McCain 43.9 43.7 44.0 43.7 43.1 42.7 43.0 43.0 42.0 41.7 41.3 41.1 40.6 40.3 39.9 Spread 7.3 7.4 7.0 7.0 8.1 8.4 7.1 7.3 8.4 9.0 9.9 9.3 10.3 11.0 11.7 Win Prob 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.8 99.2 100.0 96.6 100.0 99.9 100.0 99.9 92.6 98.6 100.0 100.0 Obama 54.1 54.2 54.0 54.1 54.6 54.8 54.3 54.3 55.0 55.3 55.7 55.5 56.0 56.3 56.7 McCain 45.9 45.8 46.0 45.9 45.4 45.2 45.7 45.7 45.0 44.7 44.3 44.5 44.0 43.7 43.3 Spread 8.3 8.5 8.0 8.1 9.3 9.7 8.5 8.6 9.9 10.5 11.4 11.0 12.0 12.7 13.4 Win Prob 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.7 100.0 99.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.0 99.6 100.0 100.0 FINAL PROJECTION: Obama wins by 76–64 million votes 367–171 EV 53–45% vote share margin. The 2008 Election Model (EM) assumes as a base case that a fraud-free election is held today — and that current polls reflect the true vote. The state model projects Obama will win the Electoral Vote by 367–171. The final projected vote share is Obama-53.1 McCain-44.9% Other-2.0%. The state poll aggregate vote share matched the national average tracking poll to within 0.2%. The model projects that Obama will carry 30 states + DC: CA CO CT DE FL HI IL IA ME MD / MA MI MN MO MT NV NH NJ NM NY / NC ND OH OR PA RI VT VA WA WI In May, the 2008 Election Calculator (EC) projected that Obama would win the True Vote by 71–59m (54.1–44.7%). For the 2008 EC to match the EM, its estimate of returning 60.5m-Kerry and 51.6m-Bush voters had to be accurate. The EC used 12:22am 2004 NEP vote shares to calculate the projections. In other words, the 2008 EC and EM confirmed that Kerry won a landslide (see below). These graphs display the trend from May 29–Nov 3: Electoral vote and projected vote share trend and State vs. National vote share projection Trend The average of recent state polls is entered in the database. The EM assumes that 60% of the undecided voters will break to Obama (base case). The undecided vote allocation (UVA) is based on the assumption that Obama is the challenger and McCain is running for Bush’s third term (GWB is not the most popular of incumbents). The EM base case allocates a conservative 60% of the undecided vote to Obama; most pollsters typically use 70–90%, depending on the incumbent’s approval rating. Bush is at 22% and McCain 45%. The model projects five vote share scenarios of undecided voter allocations (UVA) ranging from 40–90%. Obama won the base case scenario with an average 365.8 EV. The median and mode were 367. Even in the worst-case 40% UVA scenario, Obama won all 5000 election trials. The Monte Carlo mean EV (365.8) matched the theoretical expected EV (365.3), illustrating the Law of Large Numbers (LLN): 5000 simulated election trials were required for the MEAN EV to CONVERGE to the THEORETICAL EV (the simulation is in the “longrun”). It is computational overkill to perform a meta analysis requiring the calculation of millions of EV combination scenarios in order to calculate the win probabilities. Obama exceeded 360 EV in 3333 of 5000 Monte Carlo election trial simulations, so he has a 66.7% probability of winning at least 360 EV. The Monte Carlo simulation is displayed in this Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency chart. Note that ALL 5000 election trials are to the right of the 270 mark; therefore Obama’s win probability is 100%. Polling data source: Electoral-vote.com RealClearPolitics.com THE 2008 ELECTION MODEL Final Monte Carlo Simulation Assumptions 143.0 3.0% 3.0% votes Cast Uncounted 3rd Party 138.7 4.3 2.9 votes Recorded (in millions) 75% to Obama Nader, Barr, McKinney et al 60% Undecided Voters Allocated (UVA) to Obama National Model Tracking Poll Avg (%) Projected True Vote % Projected True Vote (mil) Proj. Recorded Vote % Proj. Recorded Vote (mil) Proj. 2-party True Vote % State Model Aggregate Poll Avg (%) Projected True Vote % Projected True Vote (mil) Proj. Recorded Vote % Proj. Recorded Vote (mil) Proj. 2-party True Vote % Obama 51.1 52.9 75.7 52.3 72.5 54.1 51.3 53.1 75.9 52.4 72.7 54.3 McCain 43.9 45.1 64.4 45.7 63.4 45.9 43.8 44.9 64.2 45.5 63.2 45.7 Oth/UV 5.0 2.0 2.9 2.1 2.9 0.0 4.9 2.0 2.9 2.1 2.9 0.0 Margin 7.3 7.9 11.3 6.6 9.1 8.3 7.6 8.2 11.7 6.9 9.5 8.6 (True Vote less Uncounted) (True Vote less Uncounted) Electoral Vote Snapshot Poll Leader Projected Leader Expected EV 367 370 365.29 171 168 172.71 Before UVA After UVA EV = ∑ (Win probability (i) * EV(i)), i=1,51 states Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation (5000 election trials) Mean Median Mode Maximum Minimum 365.81 367 367 414 294 172.19 171 171 124 244 Average Middle value Most frequent Obama Electoral Vote Win Probabilities Electoral Vote Trial Wins > EV Change in Trial Wins Prob. Trial Wins > EV 320 4969 31 99.38% 330 4832 137 96.64% 340 4668 164 93.4% 350 4218 450 84.4% 360 3333 885 66.7% 370 2270 1063 45.4% 380 1072 1198 21.4% 390 380 692 7.6% 400 50 330 1.00% 410 3 47 0.06% 420 0 3 0.00%
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WilliamPitt (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Nov-04-08 01:16 AM Response to Original message |
1. Mmmm...I haven't had my eyeballs obliterated by a TIA data-bomb in a while. |
Thanks! :)
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tiptoe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Nov-04-08 01:18 PM Response to Original message |
2. k! |
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tiptoe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Nov-04-08 09:31 PM Response to Original message |
3. 2004 EC: '04 Prelim Exit Poll Vote-shares applied to 2008 EC "Est 'Voted-2004' Mix" + implications: |
The Election Calculator (EC) is an election-forecasting model that uses demographics (concepts and assumptions) to generate a feasible dataset for projecting an election's Popular Vote Share. It is an independent alternative to the Election Model (EM) reliance solely on polls for its Vote Projections, i.e. State polls, for generating an "Expected Electoral Vote" using Monte Carlo EV Simulation and National polls, using moving averages of the "latest-five" from a collection of national pollster results -- thereby less subject to the vagaries between single polls (types-LV/RV,sizes,methods,erros,etc) -- for projecting Popular Vote shares. The EC model and the EM model are independent models, using distinct methods and different data sets, and affording independent projections of an election's Popular Vote. They produce results which can be compared. The 2004 Election Exit Polls generated controversy, when three preliminary exit polls showed Kerry leading by 3% over Bush throughout election night, as the polls closed and before the vote-counts from each state began emerging, East coast to West. (A "computer glitch" disrupted the third, 12:22am Preliminary exit poll results from appearing in official report format, but the Washington Post managed to get the data into print.) The fourth and Final exit "poll", though -- released the day after the election and with its preliminary-demographics "adjusted", having been forced to match the states-reported vote-count (the standard operating practice of pollsters) -- showed Bush "officially" "winning" by a 3% margin, the same margin that Kerry had led by throughout the election-night's three preliminary-polling measures...i.e. a 6% reversal of fortune, not only for American soldiers sent "half-strength" into an unwinnable war in Iraq, based on lies, but also for 1.2 million Iraqis killed and another million injured (more than 4% of Iraq's population). Which was trustworthy in 2004: the states' recorded vote counts which established Bush the "official" "winner" and to which the Final exit poll was forced to match...or one or more of the three Preliminary exit polls of Interviewed-Voters' responses, as they exited voting booths, and which had Kerry leading Bush throughout Election night? The 2008 Election Calculator (EC) projected a %-Mix of "2004-voters-returning-to-vote-in-2008" using a mortality assumption, a 95% turnout assumption and an estimation of "new voters" based on the difference between a projection of 143.7 million votes to be cast today and the estimated total for "2004 returning voters". Then, as a test, the 2008 EC applied its calculated %-Mix-weights to the Kerry-Bush-Other vote-shares that appeared in the 2004 12:22am Preliminary NEP 'Voted-in-2000' category to see what would result as the projected popular vote share for Obama/McCain in 2008. The independent 2008 Final Election Model (EM) projected Popular Vote shares of The independent 2008 Election Calculator Model (EC) projected Popular Vote shares of The two 2008 models independently match (within 0.2%) in their Popular Vote Share projection for the same election: The polls-based 2008 Election Model (EM), therefore, gives independent support to the vote shares used in the demographics-based 2008 Election Calculator (EC) "test". Those votes shares happen to be the same vote shares measured in the 'voted-in-2000' category of the 2004 12:22am Preliminary Nat'l Exit Poll (13,047 random-sample, 1% MoE) Those same Preliminary NEP vote shares established Kerry winning the True Vote in 2004 by a 66.9–57.1 landslide. (see '12:22am Vote share' in 2004 Calculated True Vote' here ) The 2008 Election Calculator Model confirms the 2004 and 2008 Election Model (and vice-versa) In May 2008, the 2008 Election Calculator projected that Obama would win the True Vote by 71–59m (54.1–44.7%). Checking the 2004 Election Calculator (EC) True Vote and the 2008 Election Model (EM) Projections The 12:22am 2004 NEP vote shares were input to the 2008 EC. In the 2008 EM, 75% UVA and 3rd party 1% share were input to match 2004 EC assumptions. The resulting 2008 EC calculated True Vote projection closely matched the EM Polls-projection (to within 0.2%). Therefore, the EC 2004 vote shares and weighting mix are also confirmed and therefore must be fairly accurate. The 2008 EC could only be accurate (and match the EM), if the input estimate of returning 2004 Bush and Kerry voters was also accurate. The model estimates 60m returning Kerry voters and 51.6m returning Bush voters. Given a 75% UVA and 1% to Other, the EC projects Obama will win by 78.3–63.8 million votes, assuming a fraud-free election. Note that the base case EM is 60% UVA and 2% Other 2008 Election Calculator (EC) 2004-Voters Return in 2008 — Estimate True 'Voted 2004' Mix Calculated 12:22am NEP Shares ('13047') Turnout '08 DNV 95% 95% 95% 113.7 Votes 29.9 60.6 51.6 1.6 143.7 Mix 20.8% 42.2% 35.9% 1.1% 100.0% Obama 57% 91% 10% 64% 54.5% McCain 41% 8% 90% 17% 44.4% Other 2% 1% 0% 19% 1.1% 75% UVA 143.7 78.3 63.8 1.5 2008 Election Model (75% UVA) (EM) 54.3% 44.7% 1.0% 143.7 78.0 64.3 1.4 2008 Election Model (60% UVA) (EM) 53.1% 44.9% 2.0% 143.7 75.9 64.2 2.9 |
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