Will killing the jobs bill lower the unemployment rate?

[LonePirate]

Does anyone know the answer to this question? If people start rolling off the unemployment ranks at 200,000 a week, will that generate a decrease in the unemployment rate since those 800K monthly workers will no longer be included in the counts of the available work force which is one of the contributors to determining the overall unemployment rate?

If we currently have 15,000,000 people looking for work and 135,000,000 working (a 10% unemployment rate), won't that 800K reduction cut the unemployment rate by a couple of tenths a month?

I am totally sickened by the Rs and the D traitors who voted against cloture on the jobs bill. In addition to their newfound devotion to deficit cutting, I'm thinking the Rs believe not passing this bill will hurt Obama and the Ds this fall. However, wouldn't an unemployment rate that drops by a full percent or more by November be good news for the Ds? I guess I am just trying to assail the Rs with some logic in order to find a way to burn those heartless snakes when the mid-terms arrive.

[housewolf]

1. Yes - folks who are not on Unemployment are not counted n/t

[OHdem10]

5. This is why some Economists say the real unemployment rate could

be as high as 17%.

[RKP5637]

6. Our metrics used in this country are ridiculous. They mask the real problems. The

unemployment statistical methodology is laughable. The TRUE rate is as high as 17% or more. Then, we have zillions of underemployed.

[nadinbrzezinski]

20. Carter was the last one to use a saner

way of counting the unemployed. This is not a coincidence either.

[RKP5637]

21. It's becoming quite sinister. Without sounding paranoid, there is a

strong undercurrent in this that IMO far transgresses what one would call normal politics, well, whatever normal is... It is beginning to take on the outright destruction of and assault on the fabric that bonds this country together. I suspect ulterior motives in the dark evil corners of power and manipulation.

[nadinbrzezinski]

22. Are you paranoid or right?

And I fully understand this for at times I have the same suspicion. The rise of the Right is not limited to the US, and it does the same evil all over.

[sandnsea]

10. Totally untrue

Why in the world can we not get this one little untruth corrected at just this one web site. Every single time there is anything related to unemployment posted, the truth about the way unemployment is calculated is also posted numerous times in the thread.

And yet, unbelievably, people who have been here for years still repeat the misinformation.

:argh:

[Raven]

2. I don't know, but it will certainly raise the poverty rate.

Get the cup and the pencils out...that seems to be the repiblicans' solution.

[RKP5637]

8. The poverty rate in this country is eventually going to be so high it will

need a new word to describe it... of course the politicians will call it "willfully impoverished" or some such crap.

[jtuck004]

9. Are there no prisons? Are there no dumpsters? n.t.

[RKP5637]

12. The scoop dumpsters used in the movie Soylent Green come to mind. I'm sure

Halliburton would love building them.

[jtuck004]

14. Scrooge - 2010. n.t.

[RKP5637]

15. Excellent! n/t

[sandnsea]

3. Unemployment is calculated through a survey

The only way this could reduce the unemployment rate is if people were collecting unemployment but not really caring whether they got a job and consequently start counting themselves as not looking for work.

[jtuck004]

4. No, it is counted separately. The statistics come from a population survey -

From BLS FAQ at - http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#where
<snip>

Some people think that to get these figures on unemployment, the Government uses the number of persons filing claims for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits under State or Federal Government programs. But some people are still jobless when their benefits run out, and many more are not eligible at all or delay or never apply for benefits. So, quite clearly, UI information cannot be used as a source for complete information on the number of unemployed.

<snip>

Because unemployment insurance records relate only to persons who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to actually count every unemployed person each month, the Government conducts a monthly sample survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940, when it began as a Work Projects Administration project. It has been expanded and modified several times since then. For instance, beginning in 1994, the CPS estimates reflect the results of a major redesign of the survey. (For more information on the CPS redesign, see Chapter 1, "Labor Force Data Derived from the Current Population Survey," in the BLS Handbook of Methods.)

There are about 60,000 households in the sample for this survey. This translates into approximately 110,000 individuals, a large sample compared to public opinion surveys which usually cover fewer than 2,000 people. The CPS sample is selected so as to be representative of the entire population of the United States. In order to select the sample, all of the counties and county-equivalent cities in the country first are grouped into 2,025 geographic areas (sampling units). The Census Bureau then designs and selects a sample consisting of 824 of these geographic areas to represent each State and the District of Columbia. The sample is a State-based design and reflects urban and rural areas, different types of industrial and farming areas, and the major geographic divisions of each State. (For a detailed explanation of CPS sampling methodology, see Chapter 1, of the BLS Handbook of Methods.)

<snip>

Hope this helps

[immune]

7. No, but they'll have more money to throw at the wars.

[murdoch]

11. Yes it will

There are six unemployment rates, U-1 through U-6. U-3 is the one reported as the "unemployment rate".

U-3 will go down, other unemployment rates won't be affected.

Considering that everyone on unemployment, even those who are still getting checks, are going to cut back on their spending, this will mean the loss of other jobs as well. Millions of people spending a lot less money means less jobs, it is Economics 101.

[RKP5637]

13. Yep, the ripple effect will be well felt. n/t

[immune]

17. One of those ripple effects

will probably be more and more unemployed young people signing on for military service. Just what the "doctor" ordered.

[RKP5637]

18. Sad, but quite true. n/t

[The Hitman]

16. Call me crazy but

I've said it a thousand times: Why don't we just let the assholes filibuster? Make them look stupid!

[roamer65]

19. I ignore the U3 and watch the U6 rate.

The U6 will not budge much or will go up.