Registered voters vs likely voters

[ProSense]

Registered voters vs likely voters

By Steve Benen

Late last week, a CNN poll of Florida voters found something interesting. Among likely voters, Mitt Romney enjoys a slight edge over President Obama, 49% to 48%, but among registered voters, the president has a large advantage, 50% to 43%.

In other words, Florida voters overall clearly prefer Obama, but a whole lot of Obama supporters in Florida just don't intend to show up. Though the results weren't quite this dramatic in the new NBC/WSJ poll, the national trend is pointing in a similar direction.



I put together this chart to help illustrate the gap -- among registered voters, the two candidates are tied at 47% each, while among registered voters, the president leads by five. Other recent national polls also point to the same phenomenon, with Obama faring much better with the adult population overall, and worse with those most likely to actually vote.

At a distance, this is a mixed bag for both sides. The good news for Obama is that he has room to grow -- there are voters out there who want him to win, but are inclined to stay on the sidelines. If they can be motivated to cast a ballot, the president's odds improve considerably.

- more -

http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2012/10/22/14614961-registered-voters-vs-likely-voters

Why on earth would anyone who gives a shit decide to stay on the sidelines?

Here's a tweet sent after the NBC numbers:

4h NBC News ‏@NBCNews
RT @chucktodd In this same poll at this same point in time in 2004, we had Bush-Kerry tied at 48%. #NBCPolitics

https://twitter.com/NBCNews

Now here are the details:

Bush/Kerry 2004 & Obama/Romney 2012

by rennert

NBC/WSJ today has a poll out that shows President Obama and Mitt Romney tied at 47% among likely voters. Among the larger universe of registered voters, Obama leads by 5, 49% to 44%.

How does this compare to the last incumbent's reelection campaign in 2004?

Well, luckily we can do an apples to apples comparison because there was an NBC/WSJ poll released on Oct. 20, 2004.

That poll showed President Bush and John Kerry tied at 48% (almost exactly mirroring today's poll).

In that poll, just as in today's, the incumbent led among registered voters.

But there are differences:

In the 2004 poll, Bush led among registered voters by 2 pts, 48% to Kerry's 46%.

In today's poll, Obama leads among registered voters by 5 pts, 49% to Romney's 44%.

Bush ended up winning reelection by 1.5%, slightly less than his registered voter lead of 2%.

(This also proves that the race does not necessarily break to the challenger).

If (and it's a big "if&quot this election follows that template, Obama would win reelection by about 3-4%. But I won't even be that optimistic. Let's assume there's a 2 point tilt towards Republicans because of "enthusiasm". Obama would still win by 1-2%, matching Nate Silver's prediction all along that this race would settle down to Obama +2%.

- more -

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/21/1147869/-Bush-Kerry-2004-Obama-Romney-2012

A 5-point advantage among registered voters is significant compared to 2 points, which is why some are questioning the gaps: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021592410