Biden and Trump tied despite debate (ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll)

[democrattotheend]

34. Biden (or any Democrat) needs to win the popular vote by AT LEAST 2-3 points

To have a shot at the electoral college. And in light of the fact that Trump overperformed the polls in the 2016 and 2020 general elections, I won't feel good going into Election Day unless we have a 5+ point lead in the national polls. Hillary had an average of a 4-point lead in the last polls of the 2016 election, and she won the popular vote by 2 points but still lost the election, and the electoral math has gotten worse for us since the 2020 census. Biden had a 7 point lead in the national polls going into 2020, won the popular vote by 4.5 points, and yet 44,000 votes in the closest states would have swung the election the other way. I am not calling for Biden to be pushed aside and don't know if anyone else would do better, but a tie in the national polls is not even close to where we need to be.