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democrattotheend

(12,006 posts)

34. Biden (or any Democrat) needs to win the popular vote by AT LEAST 2-3 points

Thu Jul 11, 2024, 03:32 PM

Jul 11

To have a shot at the electoral college. And in light of the fact that Trump overperformed the polls in the 2016 and 2020 general elections, I won't feel good going into Election Day unless we have a 5+ point lead in the national polls. Hillary had an average of a 4-point lead in the last polls of the 2016 election, and she won the popular vote by 2 points but still lost the election, and the electoral math has gotten worse for us since the 2020 census. Biden had a 7 point lead in the national polls going into 2020, won the popular vote by 4.5 points, and yet 44,000 votes in the closest states would have swung the election the other way. I am not calling for Biden to be pushed aside and don't know if anyone else would do better, but a tie in the national polls is not even close to where we need to be.

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Biden and Trump tied despite debate (ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll) [View all] ClearSky24 Jul 11 OP

I'm hoping these ties in the polls... Omnipresent Jul 11 #1

Good god, the worrying never stops, does it? W_HAMILTON Jul 11 #4

You are not worried about a potential Trump win? LudwigPastorius Jul 11 #20

THAT is what we should actually be worrying about. W_HAMILTON Jul 11 #24

How do you explain that in this same poll, a majority of Democrats want Big Blue Marble Jul 11 #27

It is not inconsistent for 1/2 to want Biden out AND in head to head, they vote Biden karynnj Jul 11 #30

It is not inconsistent at all. Big Blue Marble Jul 11 #31

Exactly, the dilemma is, it is Biden's decision and change at this point could be chaotic karynnj Jul 11 #40

Yes change would be chaotic and unpredictable. Big Blue Marble Jul 11 #42

You are right. Big Blue Marble Jul 11 #36

I explain it by realizing that Democrats are a diverse bunch that each want their own particular candidates. W_HAMILTON Jul 11 #33

He was chosen because no other serious candidate challenged him. Big Blue Marble Jul 11 #35

Because no one could have beaten him and they didn't want to end their political futures by trying. W_HAMILTON Jul 11 #38

Thats been the pattern in the past.. Omnipresent Jul 11 #21

"These polls" lees1975 Jul 11 #17

Um..No Omnipresent Jul 11 #39

Biden (or any Democrat) needs to win the popular vote by AT LEAST 2-3 points democrattotheend Jul 11 #34

Biden and Harris need to be seen as a team by the public. Freethinker65 Jul 11 #2

The population that it has been an ongoing battle to stop looking at the government TheKentuckian Jul 11 #44

Trump is cooked: IF DEMOCRATS STOP COOKING BIDEN. Self Esteem Jul 11 #3

Oh, that'd be too much to ask. shrike3 Jul 11 #7

Exactly. This is just what DNC Chair Jaime Harrison just said. Of course polls will be close if some in one party are Deek1935 Jul 11 #12

Correct MustLoveBeagles Jul 11 #18

! lees1975 Jul 11 #16

Despite the debate, an onslaught from the media madibella Jul 11 #5

You should be. shrike3 Jul 11 #10

When anyone in the MSM or recognized polls says it's a tie, Biden's leading in real life. Magoo48 Jul 11 #6

and the poll azureblue Jul 11 #8

But -- but -- Biden is finished. Right? shrike3 Jul 11 #9

Have hard time feeling other than the election is largely baked at this point ok_cpu Jul 11 #11

The topline figure isn't bad ITAL Jul 11 #13

Yes, the debate didn't help matters. But it's not the disaster many are painting it to be. shrike3 Jul 11 #14

Keep in mind that in almost all of the special elections Bettie Jul 11 #15

Add at least 5 points to Biden's number. ananda Jul 11 #19

I don't know how accurate these numbers are but I think the VP Harris numbers are important JI7 Jul 11 #22

Yes, fortunately, Kamala Harris is already on the ticket Walleye Jul 11 #26

Repuke voters probably pushing Kamala as a replacement flamingdem Jul 11 #23

I feel like we're probably going to pull this out.... but I've been horribly wrong before. groundloop Jul 11 #25

We could pull it out if our own party starts behaving. LisaL Jul 11 #28

47% -- Trump about locked in at that, and he lost with that last time. viva la Jul 11 #29

What do they mean by "despite debate"?... Think. Again. Jul 11 #32

Are we supposed to be satisfied with a tie? totodeinhere Jul 11 #37

Well TRHST82 Jul 11 #41

Yeah but a tie means we have a 50% chance of losing. totodeinhere Jul 12 #46

Nobody is going to lead by 30 becsuse of the makeup of our electorate JI7 Jul 11 #43

I would think that 5 or 6 points could be scratched out though. TheKentuckian Jul 11 #45

How stupidly sad mdbl Jul 12 #47