I know 538 isn't the be all, end all

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In 2020 they called on Biden to win with 348 to 190 EVs (PV 53.4 to 45.4). They were off, as the result was 306 to 232 (51.3 to 46.8). So even though they're calling for Biden to win 277 to 261 right now (47.7 to 45.1 PV margin), given he's down in the polls, many people don't find their model inputting other factors very reassuring. Party bosses are flipping out.

I honestly still like his chances. Biden is only given a 54% chance of winning as of now - hardly better than a coin flip. And yet, I still see it as quite probable.