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lees1975

(6,688 posts)
11. That's one of the biggest subjective guesses in polls, how does enthusiasm translate into votes.
Tue Jul 23, 2024, 12:16 PM
Jul 2024

There are some assumptions made about that. Since 2016, while a lot of independent voters, and a few moderate Republicans may not demonstrate a high level of enthusiasm about voting for a Democrat, there's the "Trump fatigue factor," and they will hold their nose and vote against him. That's one of the guesses the pollsters missed in 2022. The democratic turnout was a little lower, mainly because there were fewer contested races in blue states, but the Dobbs decision fired up a lot of voters.

We're talking about a poll taken within two days of the announcement on Sunday, and in a national poll, with all of the convoluted factoring polls do to tamp down the democratic perspective, she's just two points down? That means she's probably about 5 points up in reality. That's fantastic for two days.

I think we have a winner, here.

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