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democrattotheend

(12,011 posts)

15. You may be right

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Reply #7)

Tue Jul 23, 2024, 12:42 PM

Jul 2024

Democrats in the 2010's were deluded into thinking the electoral college favored our party now, instead of realizing it mostly just favored one particular Democrat. Kamala might be able to reassemble some of the Obama coalition by increasing minority turnout, but I'm not sure what states that would put in play that Biden didn't win other than maybe North Carolina. Michigan and Wisconsin weren't even seriously in play when Obama ran, and Pennsylvania was barely in play in 2012.

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Post-Launch, the first Harris vs Trump polling. [View all] WarGamer Jul 2024 OP

Hopefully she can pull in more Dems and start convincing others Renew Deal Jul 2024 #1

That's not terrible given the circumstances democrattotheend Jul 2024 #2

It's an instant +4 move so a great start. WarGamer Jul 2024 #4

I am not sure that's the case anymore Johnny2X2X Jul 2024 #7

No that's not why we need the cushion. WarGamer Jul 2024 #9

? Mme. Defarge Jul 2024 #10

Read the post I was responding to. WarGamer Jul 2024 #13

You may be right democrattotheend Jul 2024 #15

It takes a week, at least, for polls to reflect reality if they ever do any more. Wounded Bear Jul 2024 #3

If the young folk are energized and turn out, Qutzupalotl Jul 2024 #5

Not enough data. This will only get better as she consolidates the Democratic vote, which was why I believe JohnSJ Jul 2024 #6

That's one of the biggest subjective guesses in polls, how does enthusiasm translate into votes. lees1975 Jul 2024 #11

Exactly. JohnSJ Jul 2024 #14

Amazing such instant movement! BigDemVoter Jul 2024 #8

Way too early to have much impact on polls. honest.abe Jul 2024 #12

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