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In reply to the discussion: New Morning Consult National Poll: Harris 51 Trump 45 [View all]GB_RN
(3,414 posts)40. A Margin Of Error Of 1%?
Thats kinda bizarre. The extra expense involved for getting it down that low, it had to be super spendy. Not really worth the extra expense, either.
Heres an excellent explanation of polling and MoE from Penn States College of Science web site:
you again find that as the sample size increases, the margin of error decreases. However, you should also notice that there is a diminishing return from taking larger and larger samples
the amount by which the margin of error decreases is most substantial between samples sizes of 200 and 1500. This implies that the reliability of the estimate is more strongly affected by the size of the sample in that range. In contrast, the margin of error does not substantially decrease at sample sizes above 1500 (since it is already below 3%). It is rarely worth it for pollsters to spend additional time and money to bring the margin of error down below 3% or so. After that point, it is probably better to spend additional resources on reducing sources of bias that might be on the same order as the margin of error.
Emphasis added.
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So the Big Village poll that had her up by 7 is not an outlier. The polls that have it within 3 are the outliers.
lees1975
Sep 2024
#1
Great news, but act like we're behind. "Trump is just slightly favored to win according to media"
ck4829
Sep 2024
#3
Fantastic! And thanks for the link. That's a super way to see a given pollsters recent changes!
MLAA
Sep 2024
#4
Depends on the polls. She is leading in all of the swing states and it keeps getting bigger.
lees1975
Sep 2024
#10
Saw one post here today that was +3 in PA. PA, MI and WI have only voted once in 30+ yrs for the gqp candidate
PortTack
Sep 2024
#37
They're desperately hoping for a polling bounce from the no-shot "assassination attempt."
SunSeeker
Sep 2024
#16
I want North Carolina, Georgia and Florida in the win column by 8PM Nov. 5th
Aviation Pro
Sep 2024
#14
The MSM still calls it "neck and neck" and shows pics of Trump instead of Kamala!
SunSeeker
Sep 2024
#18
I'm happiest when I see a minimum of 750 respondents and a maximum of 3.5% MOE
Rocknation
Sep 2024
#21