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Arazi

(8,321 posts)
Sat Jun 14, 2025, 10:19 AM Jun 14

What comes after the Israel/Iran war ends? [View all]

Let’s presume Israel manages to effect regime change and that Iran becomes a democracy (this is wish casting obviously but let’s just paint the rosiest picture).

I’m guessing Iran will still pursue nuclear deterrence. They still have regional security issues that would continue to exist even without the Supreme Leader around, as a Shia state surrounded by Sunni states. In fact, their desire to be a regional hegemony won’t go away - their neighbors would hate them (more?) if they became a model democratic state on top of being Shia.

Furthermore most of Iran’s neighbors also have disenfranchised Shia minorities and while it would be an improvement that their main defender wasn't just pushing these Shia groups towards terrorism, it makes their desire to be a powerful protector even more imperative imo.

So the war ends and they don’t hate Israel anymore, will the world allow them nuclear deterrence?

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