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karynnj

(60,502 posts)
7. Even assuming Iran becomes a democracy,
Sat Jun 14, 2025, 10:54 AM
Jun 14

it will not solve the problems of the MIddle East, though it would remove some support for terrorists.

In reality, that scenario including that they would no longer hate Israel, sounds like the neo con fantasy that led to our attack on Iraq. The idea that removing Saddam would create a thriving democracy was unrealistic.

Force from the outside seems to often rally support around unpopular leaders. There was more of a chance that Iran could have become more moderate after the Obama deal than after Trump proved that their fear that the US could not be trusted to keep deals and the assassination of a top general. The first Trump term moved them to even more authoritarian.

But, let's say the attacks, did cause regime change. I agree with you that, if as it seems now, a significant part of their program has survived, a democracy may demand they strive to become a nuclear power for their own security.

Also, if they did become a credible democracy and rejected being an Islamic Republic, they would argue that they, not Israel, is the only real democracy in the area. They would also be well positioned to lead an effort to end the Sunni/Shiite division that is in large measure a result of colonial power favoring the smaller faction over the majority in countries when they were colonized.

If all that happened, the Middle east would be more peaceful over all, but it might have the unintended consequence of making Israel/Palestine the biggest remaining issue. There might be enough balance of power to genuinely make a two state solution viable which is obviously not Netanyahu and his RW coalition's goal.

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