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Wiz Imp

(8,396 posts)
4. This site has Democrats at 62.5% of taking House (which I believe is way too low)
Tue Nov 25, 2025, 03:20 PM
Tuesday
https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/26#google_vignette
Chances of taking the Senate are currently at 35.6%. Both numbers for Democrats are increasing fairly rapidly.

North Carolina Senate should not really be considered a toss-up at this point. Cooper currently has a 75% likelihood of winning. An Ossof is given a 77.1% chance of winning. Democrats currently lead by16% in Michigan and 22% in Maine. At this point, the closest race is Ohio where Brown trails by 10%. (Note those percentages are likelihood of winning, NOT poll numbers.)

So Democrats are already in excellent position to get to 49 seats. As time goes on, and Trump economy continues to get worse, I believe Ohio will swing in Democrats favor as well. That means they need just 1 more seat to gain the majority. Texas, Alaska & Iowa Currently are all rated at about a 25% chance for Democrats. I believe all 3 will continue to trend toward Democrats as time passes. Democrats probably only need one of them.

Yes, odds are still against the Democrats taking back the Senate. But check back in 2 to 3 months. I'm confident their chances will look much better.

And as for the House, there are many Republican House members who now think there is a really good chance that Democrats will retake the majority BEFORE the midterms next year as numerous members may follow MTG in resigning.

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